Changing of the Guard in the AL East
Every team has ups and downs over the years, but those ups and downs are relative. For the Yankees, a down year is when they miss the playoffs– which doesn’t happen very often. That last occurred in 2016 when they finished 84-78. For the Orioles, 84-78 would represent incredible success: they landed in last place three of the past four seasons. Meanwhile, the Yankees only have one last-place finish in the past 100 years (1966). Even though they play in the same division, the two teams don’t measure success on the same scale.
Even with the bulk of the offseason remaining, it’s unlikely we’ll see drastic changes in the division’s power structure. The Orioles aren’t going to win the AL East in 2021 and the Yankees won’t land in the cellar. However, we are in the midst of a possible sea change all the same. Each of the five clubs trends in different directions that could put them in unfamiliar positions in the next few years.
Tampa Bay Rays
By any measure, the Rays were the best team in the American League in 2020. They finished with a league-best 40-20 record and pushed the Dodgers to the sixth inning of the seventh game of the World Series. After years of trailing behind the Yankees and Red Sox, they’re now the lead dog.
On one hand, the team looks stacked for the next several seasons. Only three players on the roster have guaranteed contracts for the coming year (Kevin Kiermaier, Blake Snell, and Brandon Lowe) totaling $24.8 million in salary. Six others are arbitration eligible– five of them for the first time (read: cheapest). Everyone else is pre-arbitration, meaning they’ll make close to the league minimum. Given that the only major player walking away in free agency is Charlie Morton, the 2021 Rays ought to closely resemble the 2020 outfit.
On the other hand, nothing is ever nailed down in Tampa Bay. Snell is rumored to be a trade candidate. No ownership group in MLB is more frugal, so they’re highly unlikely to spend big in free agency. Just last winter, they traded star outfielder Tommy Pham and eventual Rookie of the Year finalist Jake Cronenworth for Hunter Renfroe, who they just designated for assignment.
On the other other hand, they usually get the better of these trades. It’s hard to imagine what a trade return for Snell looks like, but they would probably net multiple talented, young players. The team always seems a step ahead of the rest of the league, and their ability to outsmart other teams is the driving force behind their constant roster restocking– as well as the cheapskate owners.
New York Yankees
Believe it or not, the Bronx Bombers have won the AL East just once since 2013. No matter, they’re a perennial powerhouse and they haven’t suffered a losing season since the year Derek Jeter graduated high school. They won’t slip below .500 again for the foreseeable future, but they’ve undoubtedly ceded control of the division to the Rays, who finished seven games ahead of them in the 2020 standings.
They’ll have a hard time making up lost ground this offseason. One of the elite free agents on the market is MVP finalist D.J. LeMahieu, who rejected a qualifying offer from the Yankees. The batting champ posted the third-best contact rate in MLB among qualified hitters (89.9 percent), and had the league’s highest opposite-field percentage (43.4)– perfectly suited for a right-handed swinger in Yankee Stadium. He was also their best defensive player at three positions– first base, second base, and third base. Just about any list of top free agents places him among the five best available players.
Speaking of lists, MLB Trade Rumors ranked three Yankee starting pitchers in their top 50 free agents— Masahiro Tanaka (10th), James Paxton (22nd), and J.A. Happ (41st). At their position group, they rank 2nd, 5th, and 11th (excluding pitchers who have already signed contracts). Yankee starters finished 10th in MLB with a 4.19 FIP in 2020, which is middling by their high standards, but now three of them are exposed to the open market.
The Yankees will have to spend big just to keep their best players in New York. It’s going to be challenging for them to simply tread water this winter, especially if they lose LeMahieu and Tanaka. They finished “only” 33-27 last year, and even though there a lot of variables in projecting win-loss records for the coming season, it’s hard to see them doing much better if they lose two mainstays on their roster.
Toronto Blue Jays
They almoooost did it! They just missed beating the Yankees in the standings, falling one game behind them at 32-28. That was still good enough to make the expanded playoffs and certainly a huge improvement over their 67-95 record from the year before. Their young, slugging lineup is the envy of much of the league, and they finished third in the AL with 302 runs scored.
Despite the obvious story of the youthful infield, their best player was a free agent starter acquisition from this time last year. Hyun-Jin Ryu signed a four-year, $80 million contract last winter and posted a 2.69 ERA over 12 starts, making him a Cy Young finalist for the second consecutive season. They also traded for Taijuan Walker midseason, who surrendered just four runs in six starts while pitching in Toronto Buffalo, but he’s now a free agent.
After Ryu, the pitching cupboard becomes bare. They’ll need to bolster their staff one way or another. If they do, they will be a trendy playoff pick for the coming season– despite having to contend with the Rays and Yankees.
Baltimore Orioles
Sorry, the Orioles still stink. They may have a few worthwhile bats in the lineup, but they won’t do anything this offseason to put themselves north of 70 wins or fourth place. They’ll be worth our attention again when Adley Rutschman shows up in Baltimore…maybe. Moving along!
Boston Red Sox
No team fell from grace so precipitously as the Red Sox last season. Honestly, this iconic franchise should never finish below the Orioles– well this version of the Orioles anyway. The high-profile Mookie Betts trade tanked their outlook for 2020 and propelled the Dodgers to the championship. It’s not rocket science that if you give away the consensus second-best player in the world, you’ll suffer in the standings.
Even without Betts, the offense wasn’t the main problem for Boston. Apparently, one team can only withstand losing so much pitching. David Price departed for LA in the Betts trade (though he opted out of the season anyway). Chris Sale underwent Tommy John surgery and missed the year. Rick Porcello signed with the Mets in free agency. Eduardo Rodríguez lost the entire season to complications from COVID-19.
Sale and Rodríguez hope to return at some point in 2021. With the right kind of additions, the team could jump back into the fray with the better clubs in the division. It doesn’t seem like they’ll be major players in free agency this winter though, so it could be a longer burn before their return to contention than necessary.
Where does that leave the division at this moment? Here are projected standings right now:
- Tampa Bay Rays
- Toronto Blue Jays
- New York Yankees
- Boston Red Sox
- Baltimore Orioles
Only the Orioles seem to be in their natural resting state (sorry, couldn’t resist one more shot at them). A world in which the Yankees and Red Sox finish third and fourth is unthinkable, but that’s where things stand at the moment. Still, there’s a long offseason ahead and anything could happen, but this division looks nothing like it did just a few years ago.
-Daniel R. Epstein
