The Fallout from Robinson Cano’s Absence in 2021 (and Beyond?)
On November 18, Major League Baseball announced that New York Mets’ second baseman and 16-year veteran Robinson Cano had failed his second PED test in under 1,000 days. Cano’s absence of competitive spirit has shocked the baseball world and potentially concluded a career that at one point featured numerous Cooperstown credentials.
Now that Cano has reached “repeat offender” status, he will be forced to serve a full 162-game suspension that will carry over into 2022 if Covid-19 affects the length of the upcoming Major League campaign. In addition to forfeiting his entire $24 million salary, the now 38-year old infielder has put his baseball future in serious question.
In 2020, Cano was able to rediscover his top-of-the lineup abilities as he contributed a tremendous season with the bat to baseball’s number one overall offense. The second baseman, who has long been known for his picturesque swing, posted a triple slash of .316/.352/.544 to more than adequately rebound from his injury-plagued debut season in Queens. While the Mets will surely miss that production in 2021, they were granted substantial salary relief when Cano’s suspension was announced.
As part of the 2018 blockbuster that sent Cano and phenom closer Edwin Diaz to New York, the Seattle Mariners were set to pay $3.75 million of Cano’s $24 million salary in 2021. The remaining $20.25 million was deposited back into the Mets’ budget and will likely contribute to the construction of the team’s upcoming roster. Even prior to this, the Mets were widely expected to be one of the offseason’s most active teams as deep-pocketed owner Steve Cohen declared his intentions to “act like a major-market team” during his introductory press conference.
Despite still searching for a general manager, the Mets have already been linked to many of baseball’s top free agents. The team’s offseason to-do list includes bolstering their mediocre rotation, reinforcing an equally underwhelming bullpen unit and addressing the vacancy that Wilson Ramos’ departure has left behind the plate. While Cohen and Co. seemed likely to fill these holes to begin with, they now have even more money to address needs.
2020 National League Cy Young Award recipient Trevor Bauer now seems like a more attainable target and the outspoken superstar appears to be a huge fan of the Mets’ new owner. Bauer praised the multi-billionaire in “Steve Cohen’s BRILLIANT Start,” a nearly 17-minute video posted to his Youtube channel, citing his early engagement with the starving New York fanbase as unique and “pretty cool.” It would also be difficult to ignore the Twitter interaction between Cohen and Bauer’s agent, Rachel Luba. This occurred after the owner claimed that he planned on spending the money that is no longer owed to Cano on “more players.” Luba enthusiastically responded to Cohen’s tweet, only heightening the anticipation in the hearts of Mets’ fans everywhere. Add in the positive exchange between Bauer and new Mets’ President Sandy Alderson, and the pairing seems like a match made in heaven. While these comments hardly make Bauer a future Met, the apparent connection between player and team is evident and the Ace right-hander would sufficiently address one of the organization’s most glaring needs.
Due to pandemic-driven revenue loss and the league’s indecisiveness regarding the universal DH, the 2020-21 offseason is expected to unfold at a slower pace than usual. While the early absence of major free-agent splashes has been well-documented, multiple reports suggest that the Mets may quietly be in hot pursuit of some of the biggest available names.
ESPN’s Buster Olney suggested that the Amazins may be looking to come away with more than one of this winter’s “big four,” (Bauer, JT Realmuto, Francisco Lindor and George Springer) while Ken Davidoff of the New York Post documented the team’s early interest in free-agent slugger Marcell Ozuna.
While adding any of these players would provide the Mets with a star-caliber talent, none of Ozuna, Lindor or Springer directly address an obvious need. Although Springer would give New York a true centerfielder for the first time in years, in-house options Michael Conforto, Brandon Nimmo, J.D. Davis and Dominic Smith all delivered strong offensive seasons in 2020. Of course, Springer is the “splashier” move, and the same could be said about Lindor, however the Mets already have former top prospect Amed Rosario and impressive young talent Andres Gimenez battling for time at shortstop. Lindor’s otherworldly track record is undoubtedly desirable, however acquiring his services would likely require the Mets to part with the best members of an already thin farm system.
Trevor Bauer’s flirtatious relationship with the Mets’ front office is certainly something to keep an eye on as is the club’s recent connection to MVP finalist DJ LeMahieu. Looking past the rotation, and considering that the team has capable, affordable talent slated to consume most of its shortstop and outfield innings in 2021, who is the club’s most practical target?
In 2020, Mets’ catchers combined to post a miserable .222/.267/.341 triple slash and Tomas Nido, who owns a career .197/.234/.319 line, currently sits atop the team’s depth chart. The organization has not sent a catcher to the All-Star Game since Paul Lo Duca in 2006 and no Mets’ catcher has ever taken home a Gold Glove award. Free agent backstop JT Realmuto, who is widely regarded as the game’s best all-around catcher, is an absolutely perfect fit for this team. New York has been connected to Realmuto in the past as the team reportedly tried to acquire him from the Marlins in 2019, and landing the standout catcher would also mean taking him away from the lineup of the division-rival Phillies.
Realmuto offers a mix of power and speed which is tremendously rare for players of his position, and while his next contract, which is sure to be an expensive one, will pay him through his thirties, statistics show no signs of a decline. From 2014-18, Realmuto posted a fantastic .279/.327/.442 line as a Marlin, and during his 192 game stint as a Phillie, he slashed an equally impressive .273/.333/.492 with 36 home runs. The two-time All-Star is equipped with an elite arm as his career 36% caught stealing percentage is a full 9% higher than the league average has been since his Major League debut.
While all signs point to a busy winter for the New York Mets, the majority of their 2021 lineup is likely already set. Assuming the club adds a catcher, their Opening-Day lineup is not awfully difficult to predict. 2019 Rookie of the Year Pete Alonso figures to claim the lion’s share of innings at first base unless the designated hitter returns to the National League. This would likely see 2020 breakout Dominic Smith play first while Alonso focused solely on sending baseballs into orbit as the team’s primary DH.
The team has stated its desire to move shortstop Amed Rosario around the diamond in 2021 as Andres Gimenez used his rookie campaign to showcase his defensive superiority at short. Rosario could hypothetically shift to the keystone while Gimenez manned shortstop. Fan favorite Jeff McNeil is a capable defender all over the field. Assuming Gimenez spends any amount of time in the Minor Leagues, “The Squirrel” could play second while Rosario and JD Davis occupy the left side of the infield.
The Mets’ outfield mix is a bit more complex as all of Michael Conforto, Brandon Nimmo, Dominic Smith, Jeff McNeil and JD Davis were asked to play out of position in 2020. Only Conforto and Nimmo are natural outfielders, but both are best suited in the corners. Cano’s subtraction from the infield mix creates space for Davis and McNeil to return to their natural positions, while Smith’s clearest path to everyday action comes in the form of the designated hitter. If the club insists on adding a natural centerfielder, they may be better off making a lower-cost addition (i.e Jackie Bradley Jr., Kevin Pillar etc.) or turning to the trade market in an effort to prioritize dollars on their largest areas of need while still rounding out the roster.
Could Robinson Cano’s suspension be a blessing in disguise? Although the second baseman is coming off of a solid season, his suspension may allow the Mets’ cluttered infield to finally take a more permanent form. Additionally, the $20 million that the team saved can only help as the financial state of Major League Baseball is as uncertain as ever. After years of frugal negotiations and penny-pinching additions, the Mets, now led by Steve Cohen, suddenly look like a major market team. While Cohen’s purchase of the club has created optimism and hope, this is still largely the same team that missed the playoffs in 2020, except without the Hall of Fame production of their second baseman.
-Michael Porter
