Cincinatti Reds

Evaluating the Trade Market for Shortstops

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Next year’s free agent market will be loaded with some of the best shortstops in the game today. Francisco Lindor, Corey Seager, Trevor Story, Carlos Correa, and Javier Báez are the biggest names out there who will anchor some lucky new team’s infield next year, meaning they’d all qualify as one-year rentals if they were to be traded over the next few months. This offseason’s Trade Market for shortstops is already complicated with free agent options at nearly every position thanks to a sea of non-tenders, but as the Angels’ trade for Jose Iglesias would seem to indicate, teams are still wary of paying free agency prices even when they’re on clearance.

Andrelton Simmons, who I previously predicted the Angles would re-sign, now finds himself with one less viable suitor as he competes with Marcus Semien and Didi Gregorius to land a new deal. All three are quality shortstops who should each sign a multi-year agreement with new teams in the coming months. However, none of those three would add the same kind of star power that a trade for any of next year’s five aforementioned free agent shortstops would. So who among them is likely to be traded this offseason, and where might they end up?

First, a look at five teams who may be looking to acquire a superstar shortstop rental –

Teams in the Trade Market for Shortstops

Blue Jays

The Blue Jays have been one of the only teams connected to just about every big name on the market right now. With most teams crying poor, the Blue Jays seem to be heading in a direction where they could aggressively add to their up-and-coming roster. They already moved to re-sign Robbie Ray for the rotation nearly a month ago and have been often connected to big names such as George Springer. GM Ross Atkins went on record with reporters saying that “The quickest way to getting our business back to a very good financial spot is winning and our ownership knows that… I think we are in a position where we could add to this team with talent that is condensed in one player and a super high impact.”

If he’s true to his word, a star shortstop that pushes Bo Bichette to second or third base would certainly qualify. With only $37MM on the books in both 2022 and 2023, the Blue Jays would also be better positioned than most other teams to sign an incoming rental to a long-term extension. The Dodgers did this not long after acquiring Mookie Betts from the Red Sox, and there’s plenty of precedent that suggests incoming players would be amenable to such an arrangement if they feel like their new situation is a good fit. The Blue Jays have been connected to Francisco Lindor in the past since Atkins and team president Mark Shapiro are plenty familiar with him from their time with the Indians, and Trevor Story would make plenty of sense as the second Rockies’ franchise shortstop to make their way north of the border.

Phillies

If they’re not desperate to stay relevant in the NL East, they should be. The Braves have cemented themselves as the team to beat in the division and have already made early moves to get better this offseason. The Marlins finished ahead of the Phillies in the 2020 standings, the Mets will be rejuvenated by a much more competent ownership group, and the Nationals won it all just 14 months ago. The Phillies made a big strike when they inked Bryce Harper for $330 million two offseasons ago, but they also have an outgoing free agent of their own in J.T. Realmuto whom they’ll have to shell out big bucks for if they want to retain. Whether or not they bring Realmuto back, an All-Star caliber rental might be just what the doctor ordered to maintain long-term payroll flexibility if the prospect cost is to their liking. An offseason where they bring back Realmuto and reel in one of, say, Lindor or Correa would go a long way towards appeasing their rabid hungry fanbase. As one of a handful of the biggest market teams in the league, if they decide they want to keep their new rental for another six or seven years, they’d obviously have the means to get it done.

Mets

Everyone expects the Mets to do big things this offseason, so if they don’t, the criticism will be severe. Their new owner, Steve Cohen, is now the richest owner in baseball and has given Mets fans new hope that they may actually start acting like the big market team they are. Finishing just 26-34 in 2020, the Mets need quite a bit more talent on their roster if they want to be a threat in 2021, and an efficient way to do that would obviously be bringing in a star player or two. Yoenis Cespedes will finally be riding his horse off into the sunset (assuming he doesn’t fall in any holes) and is off their books, as is Robinson Cano – for the year at least, thanks to his upcoming year-long PED suspension. Cano’s suspension alone saves them a lot of money in 2021, so a one-year rental would be a perfect way to reinvest those funds to keep the seat warm for Cano’s return to the middle infield. Any of next offseason’s five big free agents would be a great fit for them this coming season, and potentially for longer than that.

Reds

They don’t have deep pockets like the Mets or Phillies, but shortstop seems to stand alone as the single biggest need of their roster. Jon Morosi of MLB.com tweeted that the Reds are prioritizing the addition of a shortstop and are pursuing options such as acquiring Lindor or Story in a trade. With their 2020 starter Freddy Galvis set to depart via free agency, upgrading at the position would go a long way towards compensating for Cy Young winner Trevor Bauer’s upcoming departure as well. Bauer was also acquired from the Indians in a trade that worked out pretty well for the Reds, so the Reds would be foolish not to at least open serious discussions with their inter-state trade partner. Story, alternatively, probably wouldn’t be hurt too much by leaving the hitter’s paradise of Coors Field if it were for another offense-heavy environment like Great American Ball Park. Either of them would also have more lineup protection with the Reds, slotting in alongside guys like Nick Castellanos and Eugenio Suarez.

Yankees

The biggest market team in baseball is at risk of losing their best player, with D.J. LeMahieu sitting pretty in free agency. Re-signing him would be the simplest option, but acquiring a top shortstop and moving Gleyber Torres back to second base could also be a good idea if they have reservations about LeMahieu’s age. Lindor, who has often been connected to the Yankees in part because of his marketability, would help balance their righty-heavy lineup and provide them with another superstar to stand alongside Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and Gerrit Cole. Story’s prodigious power would play exceptionally well in Yankee Stadium, too, and Javier Báez might find the short porch in Yankee Stadium to be just the change of scenery he needs to wake his bat up, but both are righties.

Shortstops Potentially on the Move

Francisco Lindor

Since he’s a household name and one of the faces of the modern game, it’s easy to forget that he had a surprisingly mediocre 2020 season. He played in all 60 of their games last season but managed only a .258/.335/.415 line that was good for an even 100 wRC+, putting his offensive contributions at exactly league-average. His durability was valuable and his defense is still plus, but extrapolating his 1.7 WAR over a full 162-game season would still put his pace well short of the 7.6 WAR season he put up in 2018. In fact, he has declined at the plate in each of his past two seasons, so teams will have to decide if that’s a troubling trend or attributable to poor luck and extenuating circumstances. The Indians, for their part, seem to feel that there’s no way they will be able to afford him once he reaches free agency and, according to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, have told other teams they plan on trading him this offseason.

While they can still expect to receive some impact talent in return for him, the Indians’ leverage to demand the moon and stars in return has been greatly compromised by the COVID-shortened season performance of their star. His standing as a one-year rental and relatively poor platform year are detrimental enough, but every other team in baseball knows that Lindor will not be signing an extension with the Indians, and there are lots of other options to fill shortstop vacancies in this market. The Dodgers have been connected to him several times in the past, but considering they already have Corey Seager stationed at short right now, Nolan Arenado – another household name they’ve been connected to – would make for a much more natural fit there.

Frazier and Andújar are two of the Yankees’ more obvious trade chips, and might have a clearer path to consistent playing time on the Indians. Abreu, the Yankees’ #12 prospect, struggles with his control but has high-octane stuff that could play well at the back of the Indians’ bullpen.

Kirk is one of the more promising catching prospects in the game right now, even hitting .375 in a brief 9-came callup with the Blue Jays after never having played above Class A-Advanced. He would probably do well to start next season in AA as his defense is a bit of a work in progress, but he’s only 22 and comes with a much higher offensive ceiling than Roberto Pérez or Austin Hedges. Martinez is only 19 and has played 40 games of Rookie ball to this point, but he performed well there and should work his way up the ladder pretty quickly. He received a $3.5 million bonus when he was signed by the Blue Jays in 2018, so expectations for him are pretty high, and he’s currently their #7 ranked prospect. Patrick Murphy is the Jays’ #18 prospect per the same list, and he gave them 6 innings of one-run ball in his first taste of the majors this year.

  • Trade Package from Mets – SS Andrés Giménez, OF Pete Crow-Armstrong

Giménez would instantly replace Lindor as the Indians’ starting shortstop, with five more years of control as opposed to Lindor’s one. He put up a 105 wRC+ in 49 games with the Mets in 2020, and Fangraphs’ report on him was that “He likely won’t hit for impact power, but Gimenez is an instinctive player with good feel for contact and is a great middle infield defender, and is therefore very likely to play an everyday role.” Crow-Armstrong, meanwhile, is the #5 prospect in the Mets’ system and their best outfield prospect, even though he’s a few years away from being big-league ready.

Trevor Story

Trevor Story is a trade chip that the Rockies just can’t afford to hold on to right now. Despite owner Dick Monfort’s ramblings, the Rockies are a dysfunctional team not anywhere close to being legitimate contenders right now, and even Nolan Arenado seems to be unhappy with being stuck in Colorado. If GM Jeff Bridich can get Monfort to sign off, their best course of action would unquestionably be to blow it all up and start from scratch. Trading Story would be one of few options to quickly replenish their #27th-ranked farm system, and since the Rockies have virtually no chance to compete with the Dodgers or Padres for the NL West in his last year of team control, it’s a no-brainer. Story is coming off of a strong year: he put up a .289/.355/.519 line with 11 homers and 15 steals, good for a 117 wRC+ and 2.5 WAR. He hit at least 35 homers from 2018-19 as well, so it’s hardly as if he’s purely a Coors Field product, even if it will be difficult to get other teams to see past that preconception.

This package would obviously be similar to the one they would offer the Indians for Lindor since Lindor and Story will put up comparable value for the duration of their deals. The difference here is that the 25-year-old Patrick Murphy, who already made his big-league debut, would be exchanged for two much younger pitchers that are tougher to project. Robberse, signed as an international free agent out of the Netherlands, is only 19 and sports a low-90’s fastball with a curveball and changeup in his arsenal. Despite his lack of a power fastball, he’s said to have “an advanced feel for all of his secondary stuff and a high baseball IQ that helps him on the mound” per MLB.com. Palmer is the Jays’ #27prospect and projects as more of a future reliever, though he did put up a 41/5 K/BB ratio as a starter in his last year with Jacksonville University.

The two more important pieces in this return would be Kirk and Martinez. The Rockies have arguably never had a great catcher in their entire existence, so Kirk would instantly project to be the best catcher in Rockies history (which sounds like a bigger compliment than it is). Martinez would provide them with organizational middle infield depth that they’d be losing at the major league level, though Brendan Rodgers could instantly slide in at shortstop if Story were to depart.

This package would be quite different than the Blue Jays’ iteration because three major league-ready options would represent the return. In a vacuum it would represent a better return, but since it may not fit quite as well with the Rockies’ window of contention, it’s probably about even for them. Even though the Reds would be giving up significant talent, all three are currently blocked on the major league roster to some degree. Third base is obviously spoken for with Eugenio Suarez manning the hot corner, Mike Moustakas has the keystone on lockdown, and Stephenson would have been in a timeshare behind the dish with Tucker Barnhart.

India might be blocked in Colorado too, since Nolan Arenado’s there, but the Rockies need to trade him too. If Story nets them three young position players in a package such as this, Arenado would need to be traded for pitching. The Dodgers and Cardinals are said to be in on him, but his contract – which includes an opt out after this season – definitely complicates matters, so that’s a story for another article.

Carlos Correa

Correa comes with more baggage than the previous two thanks to his role in the Astros’ sign-stealing scandal. He played an integral role on the championship-winning Astros team in 2017, slashing .315/.391/.550 with 24 homers in the regular season. Detractors will say this was all thanks to the sweet sound of trash can banging, but it was just one of four seasons where he has put up a wRC+ of at least 123 according to Fangraphs. That would seem to indicate that his talent is legit, if his 1st overall draft pedigree and the Rookie of the Year award on his mantle didn’t already make that case.

On a more pessimistic note, he has but up a wRC+ of 100 or worse in two of the past three seasons, including 2020. He also hasn’t played more than 110 games in a single season since 2016, and there’s the aforementioned scandal problems, which front offices will need to seriously mull over before acquiring him. These factors make Correa a fallback option for those teams that miss out on Lindor and Story. Of course, the Astros may very well decide to hold on to him for one last year since they could realistically be expected to make the playoffs again next year. Reports are they’re under payroll constraints due to some bloated salaries, such as what’s owed to Jose Altuve, Zack Greinke, and Justin Verlander. Speaking of Verlander, he’s unlikely to throw a single pitch in 2021 thanks to undergoing Tommy John surgery, so it might be the right time for the Astros to take a step back and reload to help keep their competitive window open in 2022.

The Phillies have an opening at short thanks to starter Didi Gregorius’ impending departure, and Correa would represent a modest upgrade with a lot more star power. Once one of the better prospects in the game, Kingery failed to make an immediate great impression upon reaching the majors and was terrible in 2020, slashing .159/.228/.283 for a wRC+ of 37 and -0.6 WAR. Currently he’s on the depth chart as the Phillies’ starting second baseman with Segura sliding to short, but he stands out as an obvious change-of-scenery candidate, and Segura’s best position is second base anyway. Kingery could be the Astros’ opening day shortstop with lefty Nick Maton representing a backup option. Maton is the Phillies’ #13 prospect and is expected to debut late in the 2021 season. JoJo Romero, their #14 prospect, threw 10.2 innings with the Phillies with 10 strikeouts against 2 walks, so he could provide some youthful depth for a depleted rotation that will be missing Verlander.

Rosario seems to have been overtaken on the depth chart by Andrés Giménez, and according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post, the Mets plan on turning him into a utility player in 2021. A trade to the Astros would allow him to stay at shortstop, where he’s played almost exclusively to this point in his career. Giménez could shift over to second base for a year and form an outstanding defensive double-play combo with Correa. Vientos is the #7 prospect in the Mets’ system and would be blocked by Alex Bregman once he’s ready for the majors, but could always shift over to first base. Gsellman was miserable for the Mets in 2020 but was serviceable in his four prior years as a long reliever who can make spot starts, and he comes with two more years of affordable control.

Javier Báez

Báez is one of the best defenders in the sport at any position, making highlight-reel acrobatic plays at shortstop on a nightly basis. He’s coming off a well-deserved Gold Glove win and is a popular figure in Wrigleyville and even in the video game sphere – he was the cover athlete for MLB the Show 20. Ironically, his own 2020 season was disappointing. He hit .203/.238/.360 in 59 games, good for a 57 wRC+ and 0.0 WAR. His lifetime 101 wRC+ hints that his amazing 2018 season was something of an aberration at the plate, and he’s always been a guy who strikes out too much and walks too little. That being said, he can still be counted on to be an above-average shortstop even if he wasn’t in 2020.

Theo Epstein stepped down as the Cubs’ president of baseball operations a few weeks ago, with the parting words that “The organization faces a number of decisions this winter that carry long-term consequences; those types of decisions are best made by someone who will be here for a long period rather than just one more year.” This, along with reports that the Ricketts family dropped their collective wallets down a sewer grate, probably means that the Cubs are finally going to shake up their roster and tear it all down. They non-tendered beloved left fielder Kyle Schwarber, as well, so clearly they’re not making moves out of some misguided sense of loyalty or nostalgia. Trading Báez would help them clear some payroll while simultaneously bringing in young talent.

Báez wouldn’t bring back quite as good of a return as Correa would thanks to his offensive limitations, but two potentially decent young contributors would be better than risking Báez has another disappointing year and leaves for nothing next offseason. Kingery and Nico Hoerner would be the Cubs’ new double-play combo with room for a free agent addition that would allow Kingery to become an often-used utility option. De Los Santos, the #9 prospect in the Phillies’ organization, has struggled in his 30 major league innings to this point but won’t turn 25 until Christmas day.

Andújar had an eyebrow-raising first full season in 2018 where he hit .297/.328/.527 for a 130 wRC+ in 149 games, but has not come anywhere close to that level of production in his 33 games between the last two seasons. He’s practically allergic to drawing walks, though his walk and strikeout rates actually both improved in 2020 compared to his 2018 season, albeit in just 65 plate appearances of work. As if his offensive question marks weren’t enough, his defense at third base is an absolute black hole. If the Cubs do end up trading Kris Bryant like has been heavily rumored, they might be willing to roll with Andújar at third for a little bit and hope he can grow into it.

Estrada, conversely, can play adequate defense all over the diamond but has never shown any potential that he will be able to hit enough to warrant a full-time job. Yajure, the Yankees’ #15 prospect, would arguably be the biggest prize in this return. According to the MLB.com report, “He throws strikes and commands his stuff better than most of the system’s pitching prospects, generating a lot of weak contact. He has a high floor as a likely No. 4 or 5 starter.” He made his major league debut with the Yankees in 2020, pitching 7 innings and only giving up one run while striking out 8.

Corey Seager

The final shortstop rental not covered here, Corey Seager, is more likely to sign an extension with the Dodgers or at least to play out the year than to be traded. The trade market is going to be more unpredictable than ever in this tumultuous offseason, though, so absolutely anything can happen. Buckle up: we’re in for a lot of signings and trades in the next few months – but just like all holiday shopping, it’s probably going to get done at the last minute.

-Michael Swinehart

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