The Royals Could Actually Be Interesting This Year
The Royals have had a recent run of success uncommon amongst small market teams, appearing in two consecutive World Series and winning their second attempt in 2015. Since their championship, though, they’ve failed to finish higher than 3rd in the AL Central and have had four straight losing seasons. In a division that includes more recently competitive teams like the Twins, White Sox, and Cleveland, the Royals have become a bit of an afterthought. Still, if Royals fans are looking for reasons to be optimistic about the team next season, they don’t have to look all that hard.
So far this offseason, the Royals have been one of the few teams that have actually tried to better themselves. Carlos Santana, Michael A. Taylor and Mike Minor were all brought in on free agent deals to add some relevancy and veteran leadership to the team. Each of those three are coming off down years in 2020, but they all had much better seasons in 2019 and fit the Royals’ needs quite well.
First base stood out as a particular area of need for the Royals since they received just -0.8 WAA (Wins Above Average) from the position, only outpacing five other teams. Hunter Dozier and Ryan O’Hearn combined for the vast majority of first base reps in 2020, and Dozier will be shifting back to the hot corner now that Maikel Franco is off the team. His bat should play better there. Carlos Santana was brought in on a two-year, $17.5 million deal to effectively replace Franco and allow O’Hearn to settle in on the bench.
Santana played in all 60 games last year and was worth just 0.3 WAR, but his 4.4 WAR season in 2019 was the best of his productive career. An unreasonably low .212 BABIP indicates that he was the victim of some poor fortune in 2020 (as we all were), but his hard-hit rate was also the lowest of his career, which probably had something to do with that. In any case, something close to his career 121 wRC+ would be a boon for the Royals lineup, let alone the 135 wRC+ he put up in 2019. ZiPS projections aren’t optimistic about his future contributions since he’s entering his mid-30’s, but a point in his favor is that he’s always had a fantastic eye at the plate and draws tons of walks. In fact, his 18.4% walk rate in 2020 was his highest since his rookie year, and helped him reach base at a .349 clip even with a paltry .199 batting average. Selectivity at the plate is one of the last abilities to diminish with age, and his plate discipline is all the more valuable since the Royals don’t show a lot of patience as a team.
Just as Franco’s departure left a hole in the infield, the venerable Alex Gordon’s retirement left plenty of room for an outfield addition. Michael A. Taylor was usually more of a fourth outfielder in his time with the Nationals, but the Royals decided to roll the dice on him with a one-year, $1.75 million contract. It’s a defensible deal seeing as his strong defense and good speed help cover for his offensive warts, and heaven knows the Royals like to stockpile guys who know how to steal a base. Taylor does have more offensive upside than Billy Hamilton, another speedster who recently patrolled the Royals’ outfield, even though he’s only been above-average at the plate for one season in his career thus far. If he can only manage something along the lines of his .237 career batting average, his strong glove and enticing power-speed combo will give him plenty of chances to try and establish himself as a starting center fielder.
On the pitching side of the equation, Mike Minor returns to Kansas City on a two-year, $18 million deal after his stint with the club from 2016-17. He had a fantastic season with the Rangers in 2019, racking up over 200 innings for the second time in his career along with just barely reaching 200 strikeouts. The wheels came off last season, though, with his ERA rising by nearly two full runs from 3.59 in 2019 to 5.56 in 2020. His strikeout rate actually improved last season, but he had more trouble with the gopher ball and his average fastball velocity fell from 92.5 mph to 90.6 mph. He’s 33 now, but the Royals clearly feel he’s got enough left in the tank to offer him a multi-year agreement. Royals GM Dayton Moore had this to say about bringing him back to Kauffman Stadium: “We have a history with Mike, a history we felt really was important… With our need for [a] starting pitcher, it really lined up. We needed to add a veteran to our young rotation. He provides stability and innings. It’s a really good fit.”
While Minor becomes the elder statesman in the Royals’ rotation, he’s not the only high-upside arm they plan to use every fifth day. As Moore alluded to, the rotation should enjoy contributions from a stable of young arms featuring Brad Keller, Brady Singer, Kris Bubic, and Carlos Hernández, along with another veteran in the form of Danny Duffy. If enough of the younger arms in the system look to be major-league ready, the Royals could always decide to shift Minor into a late-inning relief role in the second year of his deal, where he also has experience.
The pitching future looks promising in Kansas City, which is particularly important since Kauffman Stadium is one of the more pitcher-friendly parks out there, but the farm system is pretty thin on position player talent outside of Bobby Witt. Young Major Leaguers Adalberto Mondesi, Jorge Soler and Franchy Cordero could theoretically be contributors on the next winning Royals team, but their other best hitters – Santana, Whit Merrifield, and Salvador Perez – are all on the wrong side of 30. Moore has the option of speeding up their rebuild by exploring trades of Merrifield, Duffy or Perez for young talent close to the majors, which would hurt them in 2021 but give them a better opportunity at having their best players hit their prime around the same time. This is the perfect storm that happened when the Royals were finally able to win it all with a young, homegrown core led by Eric Hosmer and Salvy.
Homegrown players are always a good story, but any good young player under long-term control for reasonable pay is ideal, no matter who drafted them. If Moore and the rest of the Royals front office decide to double down on a soft rebuild, fantastic; restocking the upper levels of the farm would bode well for their playoff chances in 2023 or so. If they’d rather continue to make incremental improvements and hope for the best this year, which looks like the direction they’re heading after giving out two multi-year free agent deals, Royals fans can take solace in the fact that they’ll have a watchable product on the field to cheer for this year.
-Michael Swinehart
