Los Angeles Dodgers Vs. NL Central All-Star Team
MLB made a mistake in 1969. They added four new expansion teams that year, putting 12 franchises in both the American and National Leagues. That was not the mistake. Then, they decided a 12-team, winner-take-all league in which the best regular-season record advances directly to the World Series was unwieldy, and created the AL and NL Championship Series. This was also not the mistake. Where they erred was when they deemed it necessary to have separate divisions within each league, giving birth to the East and West divisions. This was exacerbated in 1994 when they split again into a three-way subdivision with the AL and NL Centrals. With six of the 30 clubs claiming first place each year, winning the division no longer requires greatness…
…Which brings us to the present-day NL Central. At 34-26, the 2020 Chicago Cubs had the worst win-loss record of any division winner- only ninth best in MLB. Since then, they’ve initiated a teardown, trading Cy Young runner-up Yu Darvish to the San Diego Padres, non-tendering Kyle Schwarber and letting him walk to the Washington Nationals, and floating Kris Bryant and Willson Contreras in trade conversations. Elsewhere in the division, Josh Bell and Raisel Iglesias have been traded away, and Trevor Bauer is a free agent. As of this writing, not a single player has signed a major league free agent contract with an NL Central team this winter!
Each NL Central team will play 76 of their 162 games against divisional opponents, so they get to fatten up on each other. Transpose them into any other division and there probably isn’t a single club in the group that would finish over .500. In fact, an all-star roster of the best NL Central players might not even stack up against the Los Angeles Dodgers- universally recognized as the best team in baseball and the current World Series champs.
The Dodgers’ lineup was pulled straight from Roster Resource. The NL Central All-Stars are merely one person’s best estimate. Feel free to argue about who does or doesn’t belong on the team, lineup spots, et cetera.
Lineup
| Dodgers | NL Central |
| 1. RF Mookie Betts | 1. LF Jesse Winker, CIN |
| 2. SS Corey Seager | 2. 1B Paul Goldschmidt, STL |
| 3. 1B Max Muncy | 3. RF Christian Yelich, MIL |
| 4. C Will Smith | 4. 3B Eugenio Suarez, CIN |
| 5. CF Cody Bellinger | 5. 2B Mike Moustakas, CIN |
| 6. LF AJ Pollock | 6. C Willson Contreras, CHC |
| 7. 3B Edwin Rios | 7. SS Javy Baez, CHC |
| 8. 2B Chris Taylor | 8. CF Lorenzo Cain, MIL |
Right off the bat, the Dodgers lineup is flat out better, with a combined ZiPS projection of 25.2 WAR as opposed to 20.9 for the NL Central. The only players on the NL Central roster who could crack the Dodgers starting lineup are Paul Goldschmidt, Christian Yelich, and Eugenio Suárez. You could make an argument for Javy Báez as well at second base, but he’s coming off an atrocious season in which he slashed .203/.238/.360.
In fact, a third of the NL Central lineup is based on past reputation. In addition to Báez, Yelich also struggled in 2020. Center fielder Lorenzo Cain will be 35 next year and played just five games last season after opting out.
Meanwhile, the Dodgers bring Mookie Betts and Cody Bellinger- each toting their own MVP award. Corey Seager and Will Smith each have MVP potential in their future. Edwin Ríos is a relatively weak spot in the lineup at third base, but it seems likely the Dodgers will sign or trade for a better one, perhaps reuniting with free agent Justin Turner.
Advantage: Dodgers, easily.
Bench
| Dodgers | NL Central |
| C Austin Barnes | C Tucker Barnhart, CIN |
| 4C Matt Beaty | 4C Kris Bryant, CHC |
| 2B Gavin Lux | UI Paul DeJong, STL |
| UI/OF Zack McKinstry | OF Ian Happ, CHC |
| OF DJ Peters | 1B Anthony Rizzo, CHC |
The NL Central has an advantage in that their “bench” players are all starters in real life. Anthony Rizzo is the best player listed here, and would bump Paul Goldschmidt to DH should the NL adopt it for 2021. Kris Bryant was tough to include. First of all, he hit just .206 with four home runs last year, and second of all, he might no longer be a Cub by the time this article publishes. If necessary, we can replace him with promising Pirates rookie Ke’Bryan Hayes, even though he offers less positional versatility.
We need to talk about second base. Gavin Lux was a consensus top-five prospect in baseball prior to the 2020 season. He struggled in limited playing time this year, but the Baseball Prospectus prospect team is, “still looking for Lux to be an offensive force starting very soon.” Let’s also bring the Padres into the mix, who feature hyped Korean signee Ha-seong Kim and Rookie of the Year runner-up Jake Cronenworth at the keystone. The NL Central’s best is Mike Moustakas, a slightly above-average hitter (109 wRC+) floundering defensively whilst playing out of position. In other words, both the Dodgers and the Padres have not one, but TWO second basemen better than anyone at the position in the entire NL Central!
Advantage: NL Central for now, but the remaining offseason could weaken them while the Dodgers make gains.
Rotation
| Dodgers | NL Central |
| SP1 Clayton Kershaw | SP1 Jack Flaherty, STL |
| SP2 Walker Buehler | SP2 Sonny Gray, CIN |
| SP3 Julio Urias | SP3 Luis Castillo, CIN |
| SP4 David Price | SP4 Brandon Woodruff, MIL |
| SP5 Dustin May | SP5 Kyle Hendricks, CHC |
Credit where it’s due, the NL Central’s rotation is a little deeper than the Dodgers’, but just a little.
In the first two spots, Clayton Kershaw and Walker Buehler vs. Jack Flaherty and Sonny Gray is a toss-up, perhaps with a slight edge in favor of the Dodgers. It’s possible for the back three of Julio Urías, David Price, and Dustin May to outperform Luis Castillo, Brandon Woodruff, and Kyle Hendricks, but the latter group has a longer track record and fewer question marks. Of course, it takes more than five starters to get through a season, and the NL Central can call upon Zach Davies (recently imported from the NL West), Kwang Hyun Kim, and Tyler Mahle as well.
Advantage: NL Central, but only by a very slim margin.
Bullpen
| Dodgers | NL Central |
| RP Tony Gonsolin | RP Corbin Burnes, MIL |
| RP Victor Gonzalez | RP Giovanny Gallegos, STL |
| RP Brusdar Graterol | RP Amir Garrett, CIN |
| RP Kenley Jensen | RP Josh Hader, MIL |
| RP Joe Kelly | RP Andrew Miller, STL |
| RP Corey Knebel | RP Freddy Peralta, MIL |
| RP Adam Kolarek | RP Richard Rodriguez, PIT |
| RP Blake Treinen | RP Devin Williams, MIL |
What… what’s this? Can it be? Yes! A Pittsburgh Pirate has cracked the roster! Up until this point, the four mediocre NL Central clubs were carrying the load, but Richard Rodríguez represents the absolute worst team in MLB. Be that as it may, the Brewers are clearly leading the way in the ‘pen. Corbin Burnes was really more of a starter in 2020, generating down-ballot Cy Young support. Devin Williams won both the Rookie of the Year and Reliever of the Year awards. Josh Hader and Freddy Peralta struck out 14.7 and 14.4 batters per nine innings, respectively.
Don’t sleep on the Dodgers, though. They’ve got a perennial relief ace of their own in Kenley Jansen (2020 postseason notwithstanding), a high-quality spot starter/long reliever in Tony Gonsolin, a pair of exciting young fireballers in Victor González and Brusdar Graterol, and ground ball machines Adam Kolarek and Blake Treinen.
Advantage: NL Central, but again just barely.
Winner: Dodgers!
The NL Central All-Stars may have taken three of the four categories, but their victories were all squeakers. The Dodgers’ dominant lineup carries them through. Both rosters should easily make the playoffs, but the Dodgers would be more likely to win a division in which they both play.
Real life doesn’t work that way. One of the four contributors to this thought experiment (sorry Pittsburgh) will have to win the division. If any of them had to compete in the standings with the Dodgers, they’d all finish under .500, with the Pirates easily surpassing 100 losses. Of course, if MLB had just adopted Wild Cards instead of splitting into divisions back in 1969, we wouldn’t need to have this conversation at all.
