What To Do About Chris Davis
If you are one of the unfortunate members of the Baltimore Orioles fanbase, this conversation will be all too familiar. For the past four seasons, Orioles fans have been forced to witness potentially the worst offensive performance by a professional baseball player in modern history- though it didn’t always look like things were headed that way for Chris Davis.
If you’re not one for hyperbole, I can promise you that this claim is not an exaggeration in the slightest. Since once-slugger Chris Davis inked a franchise record 7-year $160 million contract in 2016, he’s whiffed his way to a .196/.291/.379 line, accruing a -3.02 WAR and a league leading 762 strikeouts.
In 2019 he became the Anti-Dimaggio, going a record 54 at-bats in a row without a base hit, though, as we wrote then, a lot of that was about bad luck. Maybe you’ve seen the videos of him looking into outer space as a fastball floats down the center of the plate for a called strike. Or maybe you’ve witnessed his incredible ability to make any pitcher with a curveball look like Clayton Kershaw.
At this point, you’re probably wondering how on earth Chris Davis still has a job. Well, it’s complicated. The aforementioned monstrosity of a contract makes things a little difficult for the Orioles’ front office. With two years remaining, the club still owes the first basemen $46 million, not to mention a Bobby Bonilla type deferment that has Davis collecting a paycheck every season until 2037. Every single dollar of his deal is guaranteed due to the nature of Major League contracts, and it would be near impossible to negotiate a buy-out. Davis himself recently stated he’s “100 percent committed” to being at spring training in 2021, so he’s not going anywhere.
So, what exactly do the Orioles do with Chris Davis?
True, he’s been bad and his production has only gotten worse year to year, but I’m proposing a number of different solutions to try and maximize his potential with the club over the next two seasons- some of them admittedly slightly more realistic than others. If he’s going to be under contract, they might as well make the best of it.
Solution One: Change his Plate Approach
The Orioles gave Chris Davis an extension based on one factor: his immense power. You can make the case that his above average defense (advanced metrics actually refute this claim) was an additional factor, but the reality is, if he’s not hitting home runs he is virtually useless.
For most of his career, Davis has struck out in at least 30 percent of his plate appearances, with his worst season in 2019 when he posted a K% of 39.5. While his K% has stayed relatively steady, his home runs have sharply declined.
Chris Davis’ has seen regressions in every single statcast category since 2015. His exit velocity has dropped from 92.2 mph to 89.1 mph, and in 2019 his launch angle fell two full degrees. Over the last 5 seasons his barrel percentage fell off the face of the earth- from 17 percent to 8.8 percent.
Davis is striking out at the same rate he always has, but when he makes contact it’s mostly weak ground balls and fly balls. It’s normal for a player to lose power as they age, that’s just biology. But Chris Davis continues to swing like a 20-something who can slap home runs with ease.
Instead of swinging for the fences, he should focus on adjusting his game to match what he is capable of now. He’ll never have a 40 home run season again, but if he adjusts his swing to be more conducive for hard ground balls and line drives, he’ll at least see more production than the negative results of the past few seasons.
Solution Two: Start Bunting
As a power hitting dead-pull lefty, the infield shift is public enemy number two in the Davis household, behind strikeouts of course.
Davis is consistently shifted against to take away the entire right side of the field. In 2018, his statistically worst offensive season, he faced a shift in 92.1 percent of his at bats.
Baseball Savant has a heatmap of defensive positioning when a player is batting, and Davis’s is almost unbelievable. Take a look at the positioning from his 2019 plate appearances:
If I were the Orioles hitting coach, I’d lock Chris Davis in a batting cage for the entirety of spring training until he could drop a bunt down the third baseline with his eyes closed. Of course, I’m not the hitting coach, and Chris Davis probably couldn’t beat out a bunt regardless of where the third baseman is playing.
On to the next solution.
Solution Three: Make him a Pitcher
Ok, I know this is far fetched but hear me out.
Chris Davis has a career 179 ERA+, 9.0 K/9, and a whopping .2 WAR as a pitcher. Granted, this is across three total innings, so the number may not be very reliable. However, may I remind you that Davis’ WAR in 2018 was -2.6, and has been negative for three straight seasons. I am no numbers expert, but .2 is better than -2.6, and the Orioles have to find some sort of value if Davis is going to stay under contract, right?
In his two career appearances, Davis was called on in games where the bullpen had been completely exhausted, and he performed exceptionally for a guy who strikes out for a living. Maybe hitting home runs was never his true calling, and this could be the start of the greatest late career resurgence of all time. If he is going to refuse to adjust at the plate, or bunt to beat the shift, some more drastic changes need to be made.
The Chris Davis conundrum is not an easy one to tackle for any of the parties involved. The Orioles can’t cut him, and try as he might Chris Davis has only gotten worse. This past weekend marked the five-year anniversary of his already infamous contract, a stinging reminder of the struggle this team has endured since that day. Despite this, the future in Camden Yards is bright, and who knows, as the Orioles usher in a new crop of young talent, they’ll be able to coax out the last bits of baseball talent Chris Davis has left.
