Could Nolan Arenado Be Moved in 2021? If So, Where?
Is it finally time for superstar third baseman Nolan Arenado and the Colorado Rockies to part ways?
Arenado, the 2009 second round draftee and Rockies stalwart has been nothing short of terrific in his career. Any potential Arenado suitor will get a career .293/.349/.541 hitter with terrific power (235 homeruns), a low strikeout rate, and a middle of the order bat who simply drives runs in.
Arenado doesn’t just do it at the plate. If you turn on SportsCenter during baseball season, you will likely see the eight-time Gold Glove/four-time Platinum Glove winner, make an incredible diving stop at the hot-corner before rocketing the ball to first to beat the runner. He makes the hardest plays look easy and has already proven to be one of the greatest defensive players of all-time, ranked 120th overall with a 14.7 defensive WAR in a mere 7+ seasons.
So, how could a team swing a trade for the perennial MVP candidate? The 29-year-old Arenado and the Rockies agreed to an eight-year/$260 million guaranteed contract in 2019, and yet we still hear about Arenado wanting to win and Colorado listening to trade offers each year. However, there is a clause in the contract which would allow Arenado to opt-out and become a free agent after the 2021 season, voiding the remaining four years of the deal. Due to the said “opt-out”, Colorado’s trade value for him may be less than meets the eye.
If a team was willing and able to afford the five-time All-Star, they would also have to put together a trade package that excites the Rockies enough to move on from him and begin a rebuild. With Arenado potentially being the first domino to fall, shortstop Trevor Story and outfielder Charlie Blackmon would likely follow if a deal does in fact occur. As it stands, the Rockies have the 28th best (3rd worst) farm system, according to the MLB Pipeline Farm System Rankings, and are in need of future hope having only one player (OF Zac Veen) in the top 100 prospects list.
A few trade partners are listed below. Each has its warts, but a motivated GM could land an impact bat that brings his or her (way to go 2021) team to the promised land. The Dodgers did this last year bringing in Mookie Betts to take an already strong team to the World Series title.
- Los Angeles Dodgers: Surprise surprise. It seems like the Dodgers are involved in every deal involving all-star players, and this is no different. Justin Turner is still a free agent and there appears to be no imminent deal for the third baseman. The Dodgers could look elsewhere to improve their roster and attempt to build a dynasty. If Colorado were to move their superstar player to the division rival Dodgers, they could command quite the haul of young talent in return, such as a combination of Dustin May or Gavin Lux, and one or both of LA’s current top two prospects Josiah Gray or Keibert Ruiz.
- Washington Nationals: We saw the 2019 World champs take a huge step back in 2020 after losing third baseman Anthony Rendon to the Angels. Pairing Arenado with the astounding Juan Soto could be just what this team needs to return to the promise land again. If a deal were to happen, 23 year-old Cater Kieboom would have to be included plus an abundance of other young prospects to boot.
- Toronto Blue Jays: If the Jays want to be competitive in 2021, general manager Ross Atkins needs to take his own advice and add “elite” players to his roster. He started that on Tuesday by adding George Springer. But by adding Arenado, Toronto would become the most intriguing team in baseball. A roster full of young potential, plus Arenado, Springer, and reigning Ace Hyu-Jun Ryu. The Jays have six of the top 100 prospects, according to baseball America so they can make this trade work.
In conclusion, the Rockies have a choice to make. Keep Arenado and hope that he opts in after the season. They would likely remain a fringe postseason team in this scenario, forced to play 38 games against the Padres and Dodgers. Or they trade him, forcing a rebuild, but also hitting a reset button that they’ve been unwilling to hit since it became apparent that the Tulo/Arenado combo wasn’t enough to put the Rockies over the edge. The rest of the league is watching.
