How Does The AL East Stack Up?
The toughest division in the American League next year will probably be the East. Featuring four competitive clubs and their invited guest, the Orioles, the four-horse race to the top should be an interesting one to keep an eye on all year long. There’s still a good bit of offseason left, and things could change, but for now, here’s a look at how the AL East standings may end up:
#1: Yankees
The Evil Empire has been treading water this offseason in lieu of making sweeping upgrades, but they’ve more or less addressed what they needed to while managing to sneak under the luxury tax threshold. The team’s MVP last year, D.J. LeMahieu, will be returning to the club on a six-year, $90 million deal, which will no doubt make Luke Voit and his Yankee teammates very happy. LeMahieu was the bat they needed to anchor the lineup last year, and will probably represent most of the heavy lifting once again. When all is said and done, the Yanks might add a lefty bat along the lines of Brett Gardner. Two big holes opened up in the middle of their rotation thanks to the departures of Masahiro Tanaka and James Paxton. These have since been filled by Corey Kluber and Jameson Taillon. Tanaka had some elbow concerns and Paxton was never the picture of health, but it’s still a little concerning that Kluber and Taillon managed to combine for just one inning in 2020. They’re a pair of high-ceiling, low-floor guys added into an already volatile mix after Gerrit Cole, so the Yankees are definitely taking a risk assuming more rotation additions aren’t in the offing. They do have a deep bullpen and a very dangerous lineup, though, so my guess is the Yankees will win the East even with Kluber and Taillon on innings limits.
#2: Blue Jays
Toronto has been connected to just about every notable free agent so far this offseason, and they finally reeled in the big prize when they inked George Springer to a six-year, $150 million contract. Center field was a glaring area of need with Teoscar Hernández best suited for a corner, and now along with Lourdes Gurriel Jr. they might just have one of the three or four best outfields in the sport. They didn’t stop there, though, adding Marcus Semien to a one-year, $18 million deal on Tuesday. The move shifts Cavan Biggio to third and lets Vladimir Guerrero Jr. stay at first base, so their infield defense should improve in addition to what Semien brings to the table at the plate. They’ve also made multiple additions on the pitching side, bringing in Robbie Ray, Kirby Yates, and Tyler Chatwood on free agent deals. Yates in particular comes with an awful lot of upside at an affordable price, though the affordability is because he underwent surgery to remove bone chips from his pitching elbow in August. Yates and Chatwood were good options to help deepen the bullpen picture for Toronto, but another starter is a must if they want to overtake the Yankees, in my opinion. They’ve been connected to Trevor Bauer in the past few months, and if they sign him to slot in above Hyun-Jin Ryu in the rotation, it would put them over the top as clear favorites to win the division.
Even without Bauer, there’s a lot to love about the young and exciting core of position players the Blue Jays will enjoy for years to come, now flanked by proven winner (and trashcan-banger) Springer. The Jays aren’t just knocking on the door anymore, they’re about to break it down.
#3: Rays
It’ll be a disappointment to see a team that made it to Game Six of the World Series just a few months ago fall to third-best in their division, but that’s where we’re at right now. The Rays are in a worse spot than they were in 2020, and it’s all because of their self-inflicted payroll constraints. The only things they’ve managed to accomplish this offseason are letting Charlie Morton leave on an affordable one-year deal to Atlanta, and trading away Blake Snell for Luis Patiño, Francisco Mejía and two prospects. To be fair, they also brought in Mike Zunino and Michael Wacha on modest deals, so at least that’s something. Losing both Snell and Morton atop the rotation is a terrible hit to a team that has heavily relied on run prevention in the past, and even though they still have quite a few starting options, none of them have as much immediate upside as those two. What they can expect from their lineup depends partially on whether or not Randy Arozarena’s postseason heroics are sustainable, as he and Austin Meadows are probably the only two guys with real star potential on the big-league club right now. Uber-prospect Wander Franco will continue to ply his craft in the minors and shouldn’t make his debut until 2022 at the earliest. As things stand, the Rays project to be a winning team, maybe even Wild Card contenders – but the AL East crown might be out of reach.
#4: Red Sox
For a team with the third-highest payroll in the American League, a fourth-place finish in their own division would be a massive disappointment. The Red Sox should have some familiarity with disappointment by now, though, seeing as they finished behind the lowly Orioles for dead last in the division last year. They’re now in capable hands with Chief Baseball Officer Chaim Bloom running the show, but with only two top-100 prospects and a farm system ranked 25th, reinforcements aren’t on the way just yet. The most important moves the Sox have made this offseason are the signings of Enrique Hernández and Garrett Richards as well as a rare trade with the Yankees for Adam Ottavino. Hernández is a well-respected role player who can soak up some starts at second base and possibly spell Andrew Benintendi when facing tough lefty starters. Richards is coming off a nice year with the Padres, but how many innings to expect from him is always an open question. Ottavino had a poor showing for the Yankees last season but has performed much better in the past and definitely has late-inning stuff. As far as what else to expect from the Sox before Spring Training, a true center fielder and a lefty bat are two things on their wish list. Simply re-signing Jackie Bradley Jr. would check both these boxes, but he’s in high demand as the best remaining center fielder on the market. Bobby Dalbec projects to be their Opening Day first baseman, so a lefty to platoon with him might be prudent, as well. Whatever further moves they make, they aren’t likely to move the needle all that much, and a .500 showing in 2021 would qualify as a pleasant surprise.
#5: Orioles
There are embarrassing teams, then there’s 50 feet of crap, and then there’s the Orioles. They’ve been stuck in the middle of a rebuild for what feels like forever, even though it was only three years ago that they traded Manny Machado to the Dodgers. They sport very little talent at the big league level outside of Trey Mancini and Anthony Santander, and the Orioles apparently find it unpalatable to pay those two, even. In an unprecedented situation, the Orioles asked them to accept salary deferments on their 2021 salaries that would have saved the team $1.5 million towards this year’s payroll. Both Mancini and Santander obviously refused, and the confounding mishap has left the team open to ridicule from agents, players, and fans alike. What’s even more amazing about this Scrooge McDuck-level of penny-pinching is that the team will only have a handful of players making over a million dollars as it is, so it calls into question whether Peter Angelos can afford to own and operate a Major League Baseball team. One of their best players last season, the .373-hitting José Iglesias, was donated to the Angels in exchange for organizational filler prospects as a side effect of Angelos’ phobia of employing competent baseball players. He was set to earn $3.5 million this season and has since been replaced by the light-hitting Freddy Galvis on a $1.5 million deal – so congratulations Angelos, hope that helps you avoid bankruptcy court. The team’s farm system is improving, but it will probably be at least four years before winning baseball can be watched in Baltimore, unless the Yankees come to town, that is. In the short-term, they’ll probably lose around 110 games yet again this year.
