The Red Sox and Royals Hedge Their Bets In Benintendi Trade
On February 10th, the Royals and Red Sox consummated an old fashioned challenge trade.
According to the Red Sox:
“The #RedSox today traded OF Andrew Benintendi and cash considerations to the KC Royals, in exchange for OF Franchy Cordero & 2 players to be named later.
Additionally, the Red Sox received minor league RHP Josh Winckowski and a player to be named later from the New York Mets.”
The Red Sox and Royals are on opposite trajectories.
The Red Sox realize that the Yankees are a behemoth and that they (Red Sox) are in the midst of a soft rebuild. Their front office, led by Chaim Bloom, former Rays VP of baseball ops, has acted accordingly, adding talent around the edges with short term deals (Kike Hernandez, Garret Richards, Marwin Gonzalez) and reinforcing their minor league depth (like this trade).
The Royals on the other hand, are acting as if they believe that their rebuilding cycle is ending and have been aggressive this winter. They’ve signed several veterans (Carlos Santana, Mike Minor, Michael Taylor, Greg Holland) that would normally be used to round out an already solid roster. Not one that lost 100 games in 2019. This isn’t a knock on the talent level of the veterans that they’ve signed, but rather a recognition that the Royals overall just have not been good since 2015. After back to back World Series appearances (and one Championship), the decline has been precipitous. They won 95 games in their trophy hoisting year of 2015.
Since then their record has been:
2016 – 81-81
2017 – 80-82
2018 – 58-104
2019 – 59-103
2020 – 26-34
Not good.
They also don’t project to be much better either. They don’t have a player projected for more than 3 WAR, and don’t have a pitcher projected for an ERA or FIP below 4.
And yes, I realize that projections are only projections and the game is played on the field. But they are more often right than wrong. Players and organizations often take offense when the computer’s projections aren’t favorable towards them, which is understandable, but a bit nonsensical. Computer’s don’t have feelings or emotions towards you or your team. It uses information and trends then crunches the numbers. Projections tend to be in the median between ceiling and floor. And at best, the Royals look to be a .500 team.
But the Royals are doing something that many teams aren’t doing this winter, TRYING. Sure the Twins and White Sox are monsters stuffed with talent and projected for 90+ wins. And the chances of the Royals making the playoffs are 10%, as per Fangraphs playoff odds. But they’re trying in a time where teams are perpetually rebuilding or tanking if they aren’t at the top of the standings. For better or worse, they’ll be interesting at minimum.
Now that we have a bit of background, let’s talk turkey.
Benintendi
Andrew Benintendi is a name that you are probably familiar with. Franchy Cordero is more likely a name you may have heard but had no significance.
I’ll start with Benintendi first since his breakdown is a bit more straightforward.
26 Years old
#7 Draft pick in the 2015 draft by the Red Sox.
151 games in the minors before making his debut in the MLB in 2016.
Starting Outfielder by 2017 for the Red Sox.
Has never had a WRC+ of under 100 since debuting.
Career .273/.353/.435 Hitter
2x Gold glove finalist in LF
Sounds like a player any team would take in a heartbeat, not trade away.
But there’s more happening here under the hood. Benintendi was drafted and touted as a generational hitter and compared to both Jacoby Ellsbury and Christian Yelich. Yet with that pedigree and production, he still hasn’t consistently shown that he’s more than a “good” player.
Benintendi has one 4.4 WAR season, which many, including I, thought was his breakout, and establishment of a new baseline of performance. However he steadily regressed back to his 2017 form of a 2 WAR player.
He increased his Exit Velocity in 2019, yet his offensive numbers regressed due to a decrease in launch angle and an uptick in K%. He didn’t elevate the ball consistently, and his slash line paid the price. But he is still a good player, and although 2020 was a wash due to injury and ineffectiveness, he still has upside and is still just 26.
So why did the Red Sox trade him?
Because Benintendi is most likely more or less what he is. A solid 2-3 win player, with the upside for an occasional star year. With 2 years of team control left, on a Red Sox team that is still in a soft rebuild and looking to cut costs – he’s superfluous. Nice to have sure, but ultimately has more value as a trade chip. Especially if you can get a few prospects and a Franchy Cordero in return.
Franchy
Now let’s talk about Franchy.
A CF by trade, he has been a Statcast darling since his debut, but was ultimately shipped out by the Padres due to injuries and inconsistency. The Padres are attempting to usurp the Dodgers NL West throne for the first time since 2014, and you better have a lineup of sure things if you’re trying to challenge the king.
Before I dive in, there is a caveat – Franchy has only had 95 Games and 315 PA at the MLB level. But he wasn’t acquired for his track record as much as his tools.
And Franchy is tooled up.
Since 2017, Franchy’s debut, he ranks 9th in average Exit Velocity, at 92.5 MPH. For reference, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Giancarlo Stanton, who are tied at 7th and 8th respectively, clock in at 92.7 MPH.
Good Company.
His top comps in terms of Barrel % and Solid Contact %?
Yasmani Grandal and Kyle Schwarber. Both noted mashers who strike out a good amount, which Franchy definitely does.
Franchy is the owner of a career 34.9% strikeout rate. That seems unplayable, until you realize Miguel Sano, owner of a 119 WRC+, has never struck out LESS than 35.5% of the time. Sano’s average Exit Velocity? 93 MPH. 0.5 MPH better than Franchy. This profile is playable.
Still not impressed? In the year that Franchy had his most playing time in MLB (2018), he had a sprint speed of 29.2 ft/s – top 2% of the league – and faster than Jarrod Dyson, noted late game defensive replacement and World Series base thief.
However, this is also not without an asterisk, as his speed has since declined to 27.2 ft/s – which is still in the top 33% of the league. However, he had a quad injury in 2019, and has only played in 25 MLB games in the last 2 years, so nothing is set in stone.
Regardless, his legs remain an asset, and he has remained an average-to-good defensive outfielder. His Expected Catch Percentage and Actual Catch Percentage are deadlocked at 75%. So at minimum, he is an average defensive center fielder, which should play up in the corners.
So what we have in Franchy is a top tier set of tools that have yet to be fully realized at the MLB level.
At worst, he’s a 4th outfielder on a good team with a power/speed combo that strikes out a ton but can slot in anywhere in the Fenway Outfield.
At best? He hits the ball as hard as Giancarlo Stanton and runs as fast as Jarrod Dyson and plays Solid defense. Sounds like a star.
And the kicker? The Red Sox get 4 additional prospects, 2 from Kansas City and 2 from the Mets who somehow became involved in this deal, albeit on the minor league level.
The Royals are betting that they’ll be competitive enough in the next 2 seasons to make this trade in which they gave up their #8 prospect (Khalil Lee – traded to the Mets), and Franchy Cordero, worth it.
The Red Sox are hoping that the box of tools that is Franchy Cordero is able to figure it out in the Fenway Park outfield. And if not they save a few million and get 4 other prospects to dream on.
