Why Rockies Fans Will Be Looking at the 2021 Projections Through Their Fingers
The build-up to the Cactus League should in theory be a time of optimism for fans as the idea of a productive spring training camp gets the adrenaline pumping for MLB fans. Getting down to the Salt River Fields at Talking Stick in Scottsdale normally does wonders for those looking to shake off the winter cobwebs. But, for the Colorado Rockies and their legion of fans, it doesn’t feel like a new season will bring with it any meaningful change of direction.
The prevailing mood is that the blank canvas other MLB teams have to work with at the beginning of the season isn’t so much as a napkin from a seedy diner for the Rockies. Unfortunately, the bottom line is that there isn’t much room or creativity to inspire a World Series charge given the current limitations of Colorado’s beloved baseball team. What’s more, is that the Rockies will now enter the post-Nolan Arenado days as the third baseman will now be taking his all-star skills to the St. Louis Cardinals after being traded.
Now, a look at the MLB odds on bet365 will show how much the Rockies have been affected by Arenado’s departure as they are now priced at +125 to win the World Series. One would think this automatically puts paid to any serious talk about that happening, but the truth is that the Rockies were treading water even with Arenado in the team. If we’re being brutally honest, how much worse can the Rockies be? Let’s look to the projections for the answers.
Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA projection had the Rockies down to win 27 games in a 60-game season in 2020, as it turned out, they would win 26. This would give you the impression that the numbers are always correct, but they have been wrong in the past.
For instance, in 2019, the projection was that the Rockies would win 85 games, which was a little generous given they were only able to record 71 victories. In 2018, the projections went the other way and only forecast 78 victories but, as it happened, the Rockies went on to win 91.
So without any further ado, this season, the Rockies have been predicted to win 60.3 games, which is far from inspiring but that isn’t a great deal worse than they have been in seasons gone by. Indeed, it’s a case of the more things change, the more they stay the same.
Of course, the power of sport is the great leveler and fairytales do happen. Let’s hop across the pond for a moment and change sports to look back at the example of Leicester City, a team in the top English soccer league that won the title after being priced at +500. Miracles do happen and professional sport is littered with other captivating tales of the underdog triumphing.
The truth, however, is that fans don’t want to be in a position where only a sporting miracle can propel them to the top. That normally means 99% of the time they’re under-prepared and sadly, not good enough. Alas, in all likelihood, that is what the Rockies report card will read at the end of the 2021 season.
