A Way-Too-Early Look at the Projected Standings for 2021
With pitchers and catchers reporting this week and teams filling out their rosters with free agents and minor-league invites, we’re beginning to get a feel for the baseball landscape in 2021. Specifically, both FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus have put out their projected standings for the upcoming season. Adding to the mix is the recent release of MLB over/unders for wins from a website called SuperBook Sports, which I’ll just refer to as “Vegas” from here on out. The over/under isn’t necessarily a projection, but it will be used as a proxy for a projection for this article.
Let’s take a look at the projections, division-by-division.
AVG=Average of the three, FG=FanGraphs, PEC=PECOTA, VEG=Vegas over/unders
AL East
Despite the Tampa Bay Rays finishing seven games ahead of the Yankees in the shortened 60-game 2020 season, the Yankees are the big favorites in the AL East. FanGraphs, PECOTA, and Vegas all project the Yankees to win at least 95 games, which would give them the best record in the American League. They’re bringing back essentially the same group of position players as last season, including free agent signee DJ LeMahieu, while overhauling their starting rotation with the Corey Kluber, Jameson Taillon, and Luis Severino, three pitchers who combined for about 87 innings over the last two seasons. It’s a bold strategy, Cotton, let’s see if it pays off for ‘em.
On the tier below the Yankees in the AL East are the Blue Jays, Rays, and Red Sox. FanGraphs likes the Blue Jays and Red Sox to finish ahead of the Rays, while PECOTA has the Rays beating out those two squads, which is also how Vegas sees it. The seven-game difference between the over/under of 80 wins for the Red Sox and FanGraphs’ 87-win projection is one of the biggest discrepancies in MLB. Are they a legit wild card contender or will they struggle to be a .500 team? Stay tuned.
Bringing up the rear in the AL East are the Baltimore Orioles. FanGraphs recently tweeted their projected postseason odds and had exactly one team at 0.0%, the Baltimore Orioles. They aren’t projected for the fewest wins in baseball, but their placement in the AL East severely limits their chances to make the playoffs. FanGraphs projects just one player on the current roster to be a league-average player (John Means, 2.0 WAR)
AL Central
The Chicago White Sox bolstered their rotation with Lance Lynn and their bullpen with Liam Hendricks, but it may not be enough to catch the Twins in the AL Central. Both FanGraphs and PECOTA project more wins for the Twins, while PECOTA also has Cleveland ahead of the pale hose. On the other hand, the Vegas over/under of 90 wins for the White Sox puts them ahead of the Twins (89) and Cleveland (83).
In the offseason, the Twins lost 41-year-old pitcher Rich Hill to free agency, but re-signed 40-year-old DH Nelson Cruz. He’s projected by the FanGraphs depth charts to have a 126 wRC+ and be worth 2.2 WAR in 2021. If he reaches those expectations, he would have around the 20th-best season in MLB history for a 40-year-old position player. Previously productive 40-year-old position players in the range of 2.2 WAR include Stan Musial on the 1961 Cardinals, Davey Lopes on the 1985 Cubs, Brian Downing on the 1991 Rangers, and Joe Start on the 1883 Providence Grays, where he was teammates with Twitter star Old Hoss Radbourn (48-25, 2.05 ERA, 632.3 IP that year).
The Cleveland team lost Francisco Lindor, Carlos Carrasco, and Cesar Hernandez, yet still remain a viable contender for the AL Central title as well as a wild card spot. Of note is that FanGraphs has Cleveland just one game ahead of the Royals, while PECOTA has a 13-game gap between the two.
At the bottom of the AL Central are the Detroit Tigers, who look almost respectable with 75 projected wins at FanGraphs, but near the bottom of the league with 66 projected wins by PECOTA. Tigers fans can at least enjoy watching Miguel Cabrera move up the career hits list as the season goes on. He’ll begin the year seven hits behind Babe Ruth, 10 hits behind Mel Ott, and 79 hits behind Barry Bonds. He needs 134 hits to reach 3,000 knocks and 13 home runs to reach 500 dingers. If Cabrera can get to 3,000 hits and 500 homers, he’ll join Hank Aaron, Willie Mays, Albert Pujols, Alex Rodriguez, and Rafael Palmeiro as the only players in MLB history to accomplish this feat.
AL West
The Houston Astros lost George Springer to free agency, but retained Michael Brantley. Replacing Springer in center field is light-hitting Miles Straw, with one career home run in 224 career plate appearances, which contributes to the Astros center fielders being projected for the second-lowest WAR total of any position on the team. Free agent outfielder Jackie Bradley, Jr. seems like a good fit here.
The Oakland A’s were the only AL West team to finish over .500 last year, but after losing Marcus Semien, Liam Hendriks, and others to free agency, they’re projected to take a significant step back in 2021. FanGraphs has them five games behind the Astros, while PECOTA has a 12-game gap between the two. Vegas sees it much closer, with just a 2-game spread.
Despite having the best player in the world, the Los Angeles Angels haven’t won the AL West since 2014. That was the first year Mike Trout won the AL MVP Award. He’s added two more MVP Awards to his trophy shelf since that season, but is still looking for a return trip to the playoffs. Based on FanGraphs, PECOTA, and the Vegas over/under, this could be the year the Angels end their drought.
Of course, fans of the Seattle Mariners laugh at the Angels’ six-year streak without making the playoffs because it pales in comparison to the Mariners’ 19-year stretch of postseason-less baseball. The Mariners’ playoff drought is old enough to be in college at this point. The team is improving, though, and should finish ahead of the rebuilding Texas Rangers.
NL East
Depending on whom you trust, the top of the NL East is either a dead heat between the Mets and Braves (per FanGraphs) or the Mets are runaway favorites (per PECOTA). The Vegas over/under matches FanGraphs, where both teams are projected for 91 victories. PECOTA has the Mets with 94 wins and the Braves with just 82, which would put them fourth in the division. Coming off a shortened season in which they were on pace for 94 wins over the full 162, that seems a bit light.
The Nationals and Phillies project to be better in 2021 than they were in 2020. Should they both reach 81 wins and the Mets and Braves play as expected, the NL East would be the only division with four teams at or above .500. A little luck here or there could bump either the Nationals or Phillies into the division and/or wild card race.
Bringing up the rear in the NL East are the Miami Marlins, projected for 70-75 wins. On the surface, this looks like a big drop from last year’s 31-29 playoff team, but the 2020 Marlins had a run-differential of -41, with an expected record of 70-92 over a full 162-game season, so 70-75 wins seems about right.
NL Central
With FanGraphs projecting every team in the NL Central to finish below .500, we think back to the 1994 AL West. That was the year of a work stoppage that ended the season in August, with the AL West standings looking like this:
52-62, .456—Texas Rangers
51-63, .447—Oakland Athletics
49-63, .438—Seattle Mariners
47-68, .409—California Angels
The 1994 season was the first year that MLB had a three-division format. If not for the work stoppage, they likely would have had a very embarrassing AL West division winner with a sub-.500 record. The 1994 Texas Rangers needed to go 29-19 (.604) just to finish the year at .500, which seems unlikely for a team that had been outscored by 84 runs through their first 114 games.
The 2021 NL Central won’t be that bad, but they don’t look great either, at least according to FanGraphs, which has the Brewers and Cardinals tied atop the division with 79 wins. PECOTA actually likes the Brewers and Cubs to finish with 89 and 85 wins, respectively. PECOTA also has the Cardinals and Reds with more wins than FanGraphs projects for each, but has no faith in the Pirates.
The Vegas over/unders are more in agreement with PECOTA in this division. They also have an MLB-low over/under of just 58 wins for Pittsburgh. The really sad thing is that a 58-104 record would give the Pirates a .358 winning percentage, which is 41 points higher than last season’s .317 mark (19-41, which pro-rates to 51-111 in a 162-game season). The Pirates might actually need some good luck to win 58 games.
NL West
After nine consecutive losing seasons, the San Diego Padres broke through last year with a 37-23 record, which is a 99-win pace over a 162-game season. And they still finished six games behind the Dodgers. In the offseason, the Padres added Blake Snell, Yu Darvish, and Joe Musgrove to the rotation, signed Ha-seong Kim out of the KBO, and re-signed Jurickson Profar. Despite all this, PECOTA has the Dodgers finishing nine games up on the Padres in 2021. FanGraphs thinks it will be much closer, with just two games separating the teams. The Vegas over/under is siding with PECOTA on this one.
The reason, of course, is that the Dodgers were really, really good last year (on pace for 116 wins), then added Trevor Bauer and Blake Treinen and re-signed Justin Turner. According to the FanGraphs Depth Chart pages, the Dodgers have one position in which they project to be below average—left field, where A.J. Pollock, Chris Taylor, and Matt Beaty project to be worth 1.5 WAR. The Padres have two spots projected for less than 2 WAR—first base (Eric Hosmer, mostly) and right field (Wil Myers).
The middle of the division belongs to the Giants and Diamondbacks or Diamondbacks and Giants, depending on your faith in FanGraphs versus PECOTA. The over/under line favors the Diamondbacks, with 77 wins to the Giants’ 75. At the bottom of the NL West sit the Nolan Arenado-less Colorado Rockies, who have one position projected to be above average (shortstop—Trevor Story, 3.8 WAR).
