The Rays Are (Probably) Going to Be OK
The Tampa Bay Rays had an exceptional 2020 (sporting wise of course, COVID wise? Ooof.). They won the AL East handily and made it to the World Series. For a normal team, you’d figure the offseason would be solidifying the roster and making additions to make another run at the title.
But the Rays do not operate like a normal team. They traded and declined to re-sign their top 2 starters. They dealt Blake Snell, who was on an extremely friendly team deal, to the Padres and didn’t even give Charlie Morton a qualifying offer in fear he would take it.
Morton subsequently signed with the Braves. Not to mention that Yonny Chirinos, their #3 starter, had undergone Tommy John surgery a few months earlier and is out until early 2022.
To say these moves were confusing is an understatement. A team that had just come a few decisions away from a World Series title seemed like they were waving the white flag on the 2021 season months early.
Except, this is how the Rays have always operated, global pandemic or not. And the funny thing is that they always seem to end up better off after these unpopular trades/moves. It’s as if they always know something we don’t.
Example 1: The Chris Archer Haul
The Rays received Austin Meadows, Tyler Glasnow and Shane Baz in exchange for ace, star, and marketable player Chris Archer.
Glasnow is now the Rays #1 and Meadows is comfortably in the middle of the Rays lineup most days. Baz is a highly regarded arm who’s floor is seen as a high leverage reliever.
Archer regressed (due to attrition and the Pirates’ archaic cookie cutter pitching approach) and had Thoracic Outlet Syndrome and missed considerable time. Ironically enough, Archer is now back with the Rays on a 1 year deal.
In reality, the Rays mickey mouse budget only allows them to maneuver so much, and unless a contract is producing a surplus of value, or there is a high probability of over performance, it is too expensive.
Example 2: CJ Cron
The Rays DFA’d Cron after the 2018 season after 30 HRs, 2.2 WAR and a 123 WRC+. Has accrued 0.6 WAR since.
The Rays don’t acquire players at their ceilings, they want players to reach their ceilings with them. Snell has already won a Cy Young, has had a bevy of arm issues and notoriously doesn’t work deep into games. Morton is at the end of a career renaissance and only playing with teams that allow him to not stray too far from his family. Arguably you could say there wasn’t much more “surplus value” to be gained here.
Snell and Morton are what they are at this point, and what they are is a very good duo atop any rotation. So these moves still seemed extreme. Even for the spendthrift Rays.
But there’s one caveat I hadn’t considered until diving deeper into the numbers. The Ray’s nontraditional pitcher usage.
The Rays are usually at the forefront of innovation or statistical tweaking because their self-imposed budget constraints make it necessary to squeeze every win out of each player and avenue. Thus, the Rays pitcher usage is usually the most unique in the league.
Below is the Rays Innings allocations of the last 3 years.
| Rays Pitchers | Starter IP | Reliever IP | Team IP | Starter ERA | Reliever ERA | Team ERA |
| 2018 | 624 | 824.1 | 1448.1 | 3.68 | 3.80 | 3.75 |
| 2019 | 702.1 | 772 | 1474.1 | 3.64 | 3.71 | 3.67 |
| 2020 | 258 | 269.2 | 537.2 | 3.77 | 3.37 | 3.56 |
Each of the last 3 years, the Rays Relievers have thrown more innings than Rays Starters have. Rays Relievers are responsible for 54% of Innings Pitched since 2018.
And, since 2018:
Starter ERA – 3.68
Reliever ERA – 3.70
As you can see, it doesn’t really matter who starts or relieves, to the Rays, they are interchangeable. This speaks to the depth and impressive ability of the Rays to develop and extract the most value from their pitchers.
Also with the injury rate of pitchers, it makes sense to rely more on the easier sourced innings, relief innings that is. Relievers are streaky, and inherently risky, but there’s always another one around the corner. And with the Rays penchant for developing pitching, there’s usually 2 around the corner.
But still, Snell and Morton aren’t replacement level pitchers, they’re top of the rotation material. Both are projected for about 3 wins in 2021, that’s 6 potential wins that the Rays have lost in the rotation. However, they really didn’t make an enormous impact on the Rays successful regular season totals in 2020.
| 2020 Totals | IP | ERA | WAR |
| Snell | 50 | 3.24 | 0.6 |
| Morton | 38 | 4.74 | 0.9 |
| Rest of Rays Staff | 439.2 | 3.45 | 5.8 |
Apologies to Snell and Morton, but the Rays got to the World Series because they had the best bullpen in MLB, not because of otherworldly production from either.
In 2020 the Rays were 16th in MLB in Starter WAR and they were 1st in Bullpen WAR. Which is why the Rays relievers pitched more than their rotation.
2020 Rays Pitcher WAR:
Starter WAR: 3.7
Reliever WAR: 3.7
Obviously losing 1.5 WAR of that 3.7 WAR accrued will hurt, that’s 40% exactly of their rotation’s value. But this only goes to show how balanced the Rays are. Usually the top 2 starters are more than 40% of their starter’s value.
For example: The Mets Starters. They produced 4.7 WAR collectively in 2020. Jacob deGrom alone contributed 2.6 WAR. That’s 55% of the Mets rotation’s WAR just from DeGrom.
This highlights the uniqueness that each cog in the Rays rotation is almost equal, which makes replacing them that much easier.
So who’s replacing those 2 cogs?
The innings that Snell and Morton leave unaccounted for will (hopefully) be made up by the following: (Deep breath)
Chris Archer – Coming off Thoracic Outlet Syndrome, Welcome Back to Tampa!
Michael Wacha – Changeup Still Good but Often hurt and had an ERA and FIP over 5 in 2020
Rich Hill – 41 years young, who knows what’s left.
Luis Patino – 17 MLB IP with a 5.19 ERA and 7 Innings above High A (and the linchpin of OTBB editor Max’s fantasy baseball team for this year and probably the next 5)
Brent Honeywell – Hasn’t pitched since 2017
Collin McHugh – Hasn’t pitched since 2019
Shane McClanahan – 18 AA Innings, made his MLB debut with the Rays in the 2020 playoffs
That is a TON of uncertainty. But Snell and Morton had their own injury concerns themselves and the Rays elected to take the bulk approach. They have a few grizzled vets trying to re-establish themselves and secure a final payday. They have a few current and former top 100 prospects that are clamoring to break through. Somewhere in the middle of that spectrum, the innings of Snell and Morton will be absorbed.
Maybe it works, odds are it won’t, but I wouldn’t bet against the Rays pitching development team anytime soon.
