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Overreacting to 2020—Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitcher Strategy

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pitcher Ian Anderson is a helium guy in 2021 fantasy

Baseball fans know that last season was the most unusual season of our lifetimes due to a global pandemic. There was the initial spring training, followed by a long layoff, then a second spring training. The season was shortened to 60 games, with teams only playing teams in the same region of the country. Rosters were expanded, double-headers featured seven inning games, there was a universal DH, which means that we didn’t see a single pitcher hit, and extra-innings started with a runner on second. Two teams, the Marlins and Cardinals, had significant off time because of Covid breakouts, which also affected the schedules of numerous other teams.

With that in mind, the consensus during the offseason has been that we should not put too much emphasis on a 60-game season played during a pandemic. Players who outperformed expectations did so in a two-month season, which led to three qualifying pitchers with ERAs under 2.00 (Shane Bieber, Trevor Bauer, Dallas Keuchel). That last time that happened was 1972. On the other hand, some very good hitters performed well below expectations over the two-month season, including Nolan Arenado, J.D. Martinez, and Jose Altuve.

The thing is, we’re human. As much as we tell ourselves not to overreact to the results of a two-month season, we can’t seem help it. We have more vivid memories of the 2020 season than 2019 and recency bias creeps in. Rookies who debuted and performed well above expectations are like the shiny new toy that we get on our birthday.

One way this manifests itself is in the fantasy baseball world, where players coming off terrific seasons are likely being drafted higher than they should be and players who slumped in 2020 are dropping too far on draft boards. To analyze this, we can compare a player’s average draft position (ADP) in 2021 to their ADP in previous years to determine who has risen up the ranks and who has fallen out of favor based in large part on last year’s shortened schedule.

I compiled ADP data from the National Fantasy Baseball Championships website based on drafts from March 1 through March 16. I then compared this year’s ADP to previous years and sorted by position to get an idea of how fantasy baseball owners are valuing players.

This is the starting pitching version of this series, which will run all week here at Off The Bench. You can check out the other entries and Season previews here.

Note #1: I refer to FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) and xFIP (Expected Fielding Independent Pitching) below. Both metrics are similar to ERA except they only include the things a pitcher has the most control over—strikeouts, walks, HBP, and home runs allowed for FIP and strikeouts, walks, HBP, and fly balls allowed for xFIP. Both metrics are better predictors of future ERA than actual ERA.

Note #2: I reference ATC projections below. These are composite projections created by Ariel T. Cohen using a “wisdom of the crowds” approach and are available at FanGraphs.

HELIUM PITCHER

Ian Anderson, Atlanta Braves

  • 2019 ADP: 744 (N/A)
  • 2020 ADP: 642 (32.3 IP, 1.95 ERA, 2.54 FIP, 3.45 xFIP, 1.08 WHIP)
  • 2021 ADP: 102
  • ADP movement: up 540 spots
  • 2021 ATC projection: 143 IP, 158 K, 3.69 ERA, 3.81 FIP, 1.27 WHIP

Ian Anderson was Atlanta’s first-round pick (3rd pick overall) in 2016 out of Shenendehowa High School in Clifton Park, New York, home of the Plainsmen. He appeared on top-100 prospects lists for the next five seasons, including the #8 spot on this year’s list at Baseball America because he’s still rookie-eligible (and has 15/2 odds to win the NL Rookie of the Year Award at Vegasinsider.com).

The Braves brought him up last year near the end of August and he was very good in six regular season starts using a fastball/curveball/change-up combination. He continued to shove in the playoffs, making three starts and allowing just two earned runs in 18.7 innings against the Reds, Marlins, and Dodgers. Combining his regular season and postseason and you have 51 innings with a 1.59 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 30% strikeout rate and 11% walk rate.

It’s easy to see why fantasy players are excited about Anderson. His ADP is 102, which makes him the 32nd starting pitcher off the board. I’m also optimistic about his future, but there are some caveats. For one, his ERA and WHIP in the big leagues last year were lower than in any of his minor league seasons. In 2019, he was knocked around a bit in Triple-A when he allowed five home runs in five starts, walked 18, and had a 6.57 ERA and 1.66 WHIP. He only allowed one home run in the 51 combined innings he pitched in the regular season and postseason last year, which is unlikely to be repeated.

Another concern with Anderson is the number of innings he’ll pitch in 2021. His career high is 135.7 in the minor leagues in 2019. He’s just 23 years old and Atlanta won’t want to push him too hard after the shortened season last year. I expect quality pitching, but with fewer innings than the veteran pitchers behind him in ADP (Zack Wheeler, Zack Greinke, and Charlie Morton).

Sixto Sánchez, Miami Marlins

  • 2019 ADP: 725 (N/A)
  • 2020 ADP: 603 (39 IP, 3.46 ERA, 3.50 FIP, 4.08 xFIP, 1.21 WHIP)
  • 2021 ADP: 131
  • ADP movement: up 472 spots
  • 2021 ATC projection: 142 IP, 128 K, 3.76 ERA, 3.70 FIP, 1.23 WHIP

Like Ian Anderson, Sixto Sánchez has been on the Baseball America top-100 list in each of the last five years. Like Anderson, Sánchez is a top-10 prospect heading into this season (#6 on the Baseball America list). Like Anderson, Sánchez is one of the top three favorites for NL Rookie of the Year. Finally, like Anderson, Sánchez is a young pitcher (22 years old) who has a career-high in innings in a season (114) that may prevent him from pitching more than 140-150 innings this year.

Sánchez is an interesting pitcher in that he throws serious heat (97.6 mph average fastball velocity last year) but has never been a big strikeout guy. His 2020 Statcast data shows 98th percentile fastball velocity but 36th percentile Whiff rate. Even in the minor leagues, he only struck out 22 percent of the batters he faced. He’s still young, though, and I think the strikeouts will come in time.

Fantasy owners have Sánchez’ ADP right in the mix among Julio Urías, Patrick Corbin, and teammate Pablo López, which seems like a good spot for him. You can expect good numbers, but don’t expect 150 innings.

Pablo López, Miami Marlins

  • 2018 ADP: 750 (58.7 IP, 4.14 ERA, 4.49 FIP, 4.15 xFIP, 1.26 WHIP)
  • 2019 ADP: 548 (111.3 IP, 5.09 ERA, 4.28 FIP, 4.37 xFIP, 1.24 WHIP)
  • 2020 ADP: 371 (57.3 IP, 3.61 ERA, 3.09 FIP, 3.73 xFIP, 1.19 WHIP)
  • 2021 ADP: 133
  • ADP movement: up 238 spots
  • 2021 ATC projection: 160 IP, 152 K, 3.80 ERA, 3.69 FIP, 1.22 WHIP

In his first two major league seasons, Pablo López pitched 170 innings with a 4.76 ERA, 4.35 FIP, and 1.25 WHIP. He wasn’t high on the fantasy radar, but he was young and there was clear potential there if you looked close. Unlike many pitchers, López throws five pitches. His Statcast Pitch Arsenal has him throwing a 4-seam fastball (32% of the time), a Change-up (30%), a Sinker (23%), a Cutter (8%), and a Curveball (7%).

The curveball is still a work in progress. According to this article at the Miami Herald, he’s trying to alter his curveball so it “better fits his arm slot compared to the curveball he had previously thrown to give himself a steady fifth pitch as he prepares for his fourth big-league season.”

After a 3.61 ERA and 1.19 WHIP last year, López’ ADP has surged 238 spots to 133, two spots behind teammate Sixto Sánchez and essentially even with Patrick Corbin. I think he and Corbin are comparable and I like him better than Sánchez because I believe he’ll pitch more innings.

Dylan Bundy, Los Angeles Angels

  • 2018 ADP: 193 (171.7 IP, 5.45 ERA, 5.17 FIP, 4.28 xFIP, 1.41 WHIP)
  • 2019 ADP: 341 (161.7 IP, 4.79 ERA, 4.73 FIP, 4.58 xFIP, 1.35 WHIP)
  • 2020 ADP: 246 (65.7 IP, 3.29 ERA, 2.95 FIP, 3.75 xFIP, 1.04 WHIP)
  • 2021 ADP: 122
  • ADP movement: up 124 spots
  • 2021 ATC projection: 170 IP, 173 K, 4.32 ERA, 4.44 FIP, 1.25 WHIP

Fantasy owners liked what they saw from Dylan Bundy in 2020, enough that they bumped him up 124 spots of ADP and are drafting him higher than ever before. I’m going to pass at this price. I realize he had a good 2020 season, with a 3.29 ERA in 65.7 innings, but I can’t shake the previous 614.1 innings with a 4.67 ERA in his career.

Also, five of his 11 starts in 2020 were against the Seattle Mariners and Texas Rangers, who finished last and second-to-last in the American League in wOBA. Bundy had his best outing of the season against the Mariners on August 6, when he pitched a complete-game, struck out 10 and walked none, and allowed four hits and just one run. The last six hitters in the Mariners lineup that day were the exact opposite of a Murderer’s Row:

It would be great to have Dee Strange-Gordon and Mallex Smith as two legs of a four-person relay race, but not back-to-back in a major league lineup, followed by Joe Hudson.

Another red flag for me is Bundy’s career-long struggles with giving up homers right up until last year, when he allowed just five in 65.7 innings (0.7 HR/9). For reference, he gave up 70 dingers in 333.3 innings in 2018 and 2019 (1.9 HR/9). So, count me out on Bundy. I don’t want to take the hit in ERA and WHIP.

Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia Phillies

  • 2018 ADP: 581 (182.3 IP, 3.31 ERA, 3.25 FIP, 3.81 xFIP, 1.12 WHIP)
  • 2019 ADP:   87 (195.3 IP, 3.96 ERA, 3.48 FIP, 4.06 xFIP, 1.26 WHIP)
  • 2020 ADP: 126 (71.0 IP, 2.92 ERA, 3.22 FIP, 3.76 xFIP, 1.17 WHIP)
  • 2021 ADP: 105
  • ADP movement: up 21 spots
  • 2021 ATC projection: 184 IP, 172 K, 3.81 ERA, 3.68 FIP, 1.22 WHIP

Wheeler doesn’t have as much helium as the other pitchers on this list, but he’s still up 21 spots from last season. While his drop in ERA from 3.96 to 2.92 is significant, his FIP and xFIP were down only about one-third of a run per nine innings. That drop in ERA and WHIP make him more valuable in fantasy baseball, but he also had a substantial drop in strikeout rate, from around 24 percent in 2018 and 2019 to 18 percent last year.

According to this article, Wheeler changed his approach by design. His four-seam fastball dropped more and ran less and produced more ground balls last year, as did his sinker. Before 2020, he was a consistent 43-48 percent ground ball guy. Last year, his ground ball percentage jumped to 56 percent.

This spring, Wheeler is suggesting he can get strikeouts or ground balls, depending on his approach. “I think I can have it both ways,” Wheeler said earlier this month. “Because I know I still have the stuff. I was trying to get in and out of there last year . . . Get out ahead of guys, try to finish them with three pitches or less. Strikeouts aren’t the biggest thing. I couldn’t care less about them honestly.”

He couldn’t care less about strikeouts, but fantasy players like them. It’s a trade-off. You’d like to see more strikeouts, but if Wheeler’s ground-ball approach allows him to pitch deeper into games, that would mean more innings, bulk strikeouts, and wins.

Wheeler’s 105 ADP is in the same range as Chris Paddack (101), Ian Anderson (102), and Zack Greinke (106). While he wouldn’t be my first choice from this group of four (I like Greinke), he fits in well here.

ANVIL PITCHER

Patrick Corbin, Washington Nationals

  • 2018 ADP: 227 (200 IP, 3.15 ERA, 2.47 FIP, 2.61 xFIP, 1.05 WHIP)
  • 2019 ADP: 49 (202 IP, 3.25 ERA, 3.49 FIP, 3.59 xFIP, 1.18 WHIP)
  • 2020 ADP: 47 (65.7 IP, 4.66 ERA, 4.17 FIP, 4.12 xFIP, 1.57 WHIP)
  • 2021 ADP: 133
  • ADP movement: down 86 spots
  • 2021 ATC projection: 184 IP, 192 K, 3.91 ERA, 3.90 FIP, 1.27 WHIP

After back-to-back seasons being among the top 50 picks, Corbin has dropped 86 spots to an ADP of 133 this spring. In each of the last two seasons, he was taken ahead of Clayton Kershaw on average. Now he’s in the neighborhood of the two Miami Marlins pitchers mentioned in the Helium Guys section, Sixto Sánchez and Pablo López.

Corbin’s 2020 numbers are bad: 4.66 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, and he had a significant drop in strikeout rate from 28-30 percent the previous two years to 20 percent last year. He also lost 1.6 mph on his four-seam fastball, which is a big concern to fantasy players. FanGraphs writer Jeff Zimmerman tracks fastball velocity for pitchers during spring training and Corbin is not where he’d like it to be.

On the other hand, Corbin’s FIP was 4.17 and xFIP was 4.12, so about a half-run below his ERA. He had a BABIP-allowed of .362, which was by far the highest of his career. Even though he allowed hard hits at a higher rate than in the past, it’s still likely that some of that .362 BABIP was bad luck. And for all the worry about his average fastball velocity dropping so much, it was only a 0.6 mph slower last year than it was in 2018, which was the best season of his career (3.15 ERA, 1.05 WHIP).

I don’t believe Corbin’s ADP of 133 is way off, but I like him more for 2021 than Julia Urias (130 ADP) and Dylan Bundy (122 ADP).

Charlie Morton, Atlanta Braves

  • 2018 ADP: 168 (167 IP, 3.13 ERA, 3.59 FIP, 3.42 xFIP, 1.16 WHIP)
  • 2019 ADP: 118 (194.7 IP, 3.05 ERA, 2.81 FIP, 3.28 xFIP, 1.08 WHIP)
  • 2020 ADP: 58 (38 IP, 4.74 ERA, 3.45 FIP, 4.01 xFIP, 1.39 WHIP)
  • 2021 ADP: 119
  • ADP movement: down 61 spots
  • 2021 ATC projection: 151 IP, 166 K, 3.73 ERA, 3.85 FIP, 1.20 WHIP

After pitching 38 innings with his highest ERA since 2015, Morton’s had the anvil dropped on him by fantasy players. I think this is a definite overreaction. His 4.74 ERA was ugly, but it came with a 3.45 FIP and 4.01 xFIP. He had the highest BABIP-allowed of his career (.355), which wasn’t really backed up by his Statcast data. And even though his strikeout rate was down, he also dropped his walk rate to the lowest it’s been since 2012.

It’s not necessarily fair to throw out one start for a pitcher, but sometimes it can help put things in perspective. In Morton’s first start of 2020, he allowed six earned runs and eight baserunners in four innings against the Toronto Blue Jays. This, of course, came after initially ramping up in spring training, then shutting things down, then ramping back up again. If we toss out that start, Morton finishes the regular season with a 3.71 ERA, 3.25 FIP, and 3.86 xFIP.

In four postseason starts last year, Morton had a 2.70 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. If you combine his last eight regular season starts with his four postseason starts, Morton has a 3.33 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in 54 innings. It’s likely that one bad start at the beginning of a very bizarre season has played a big factor in Morton’s 61-spot drop in ADP. To be fair, Morton is 37 years old, which also plays a factor in his ADP. Still, despite his age, I’m on board the Charlie Morton Express.

Chris Paddack, San Diego Padres

  • 2018 ADP: N/A
  • 2019 ADP: 318 (140.7 IP, 3.33 ERA, 3.95 FIP, 4.05 xFIP, 0.98 WHIP)
  • 2020 ADP: 55 (59.0 IP, 4.73 ERA, 5.02 FIP, 3.77 xFIP, 1.22 WHIP)
  • 2021 ADP: 101
  • ADP movement: down 46 spots
  • 2021 ATC projection: 137 IP, 141 K, 3.79 ERA, 3.82 FIP, 1.12 WHIP

Paddack was a big Helium Guy coming off his rookie year of 2019 and now he’s an Anvil Guy coming off the 2020 season. The truth on Paddack lies somewhere in between those two seasons. Just going by his jump in ERA from 3.33 to 4.73 would suggest that Paddack went from very good to very bad, but his xFIP of 4.05 in 2020 and 3.77 in 2021 tell a different story. Also, according to SIERA, which is a metric similar to FIP and xFIP, Paddack’s run prevention metrics were about the same in each season (3.83 SIERA in 2020, 3.91 SIERA in 2021).

One of the big concerns about Paddack is that he’s basically a two-pitch guy, fastball and change-up, which he uses close to 90 percent of the time. In the past, he’s mixed in a curveball at times, and added a cutter in 2020, but he hasn’t used those pitches enough to make them a threat. He’s been working on his curveball this spring and hopes to make it an effective part of his repertoire: “It’s definitely going to be a weapon that I have to bring out multiple times in a game,” he said, “to show teams that they have to respect that pitch.”

Over the last two seasons, hitters have not respected Paddack’s curveball. They knocked it around for a .583 slugging percentage in 2020 and slugged .444 off the curve in 2019. His fastball was very good in 2019 (.391 slugging against) and very bad in 2020 (.658 slugging against). The pitch that stifles offense the most is his changeup (.349 slugging against in 2020, .275 slugging against in 2021).

Paddack’s helium after his rookie season was probably too much because he wasn’t as good as his 3.33 ERA suggested. Conversely, he also wasn’t as bad in 2021 as his 4.73 ERA suggested. I expect Paddack will land in between his first two seasons this year. Like some of the pitchers around his 101 ADP—Jesus Luzardo (99), Dinelson Lamet (99), and Ian Anderson (102)—Paddack will have his innings limited because the Padres are considering a six-man rotation to keep their pitchers healthy and effective.

Zack Greinke, Houston Astros

  • 2018 ADP: 49 (207.7 IP, 3.21 ERA, 3.71 FIP, 3.44 xFIP, 1.08 WHIP)
  • 2019 ADP: 66 (208.7 IP, 2.93 ERA, 3.22 FIP, 3.74 xFIP, 0.98 WHIP)
  • 2020 ADP: 65 (67.0 IP, 4.03 ERA, 2.80 FIP, 3.51 xFIP, 1.13 WHIP)
  • 2021 ADP: 106
  • ADP movement: down 44 spots
  • 2021 ATC projection: 183 IP, 169 K, 3.92 ERA, 3.91 FIP, 1.16 WHIP

The last time Zack Greinke was being taken this late in drafts was prior to the 2017 season when his ADP was 111. That was after a disappointing first year with the Arizona Diamondbacks. Greinke righted the ship the following year and his ADP went up to 49, then stuck at 66 and 65 the last two springs before landing at 106 this year.

If you look at the numbers shown above, you see that Greinke’s 4.03 ERA was significantly higher than his 2.80 FIP and a bit higher than his 3.51 xFIP. He also struck out a higher rate of batters than in each of the last two seasons and walked a lower rate of batters. And he had a BABIP-allowed of .321, which is his highest since 2005.

For me, all signs point to Greinke being just as good as ever in 2020 even if his ERA didn’t show it. When you look at his game log for last season, you see what appears to be a dramatic difference between his first five regular season starts and his last seven regular season starts. In his first five starts, he had a 1.84 ERA. In his final seven starts, he had a 5.73 ERA. As usual, that doesn’t tell the whole story. Consider the numbers:

29.3 IP, 25 K, 4 BB, 0 HR, 1.84 ERA, 2.00 FIP, 3.84 xFIP—first 5 starts of 2020

37.7 IP, 42 K, 5 BB, 6 HR, 5.73 ERA, 3.43 FIP, 3.25 xFIP—last 7 starts of 2020

The two things a pitcher has the most control over are strikeouts and walks and Greinke had a very good strikeout-to-walk ratio in his first five starts and a very good strikeout-to-walk ratio in his last seven starts.

Along with last year’s high ERA, there are two other contributing factors to Greinke’s drop in ADP. First, he’s 37 years old and many fantasy players shy away from older players. Second, his average fastball velocity was 87.1 last year, which was nearly 3 mph slower than the year before. In an age when pitchers are throwing harder than ever, it’s natural to wonder how a guy can get major league hitters out with an 87-mph fastball. To put it bluntly, just as Zack would, he just does.

There are about a half-dozen pitchers taken before Greinke’s 106 ADP who I would move him above, including a few guys in this article—Zack Wheeler (105 ADP), Ian Anderson (102 ADP), Chris Paddack (101 ADP), Dinelson Lamet (99 ADP), and Jesus Luzardo (99 ADP).

This Guy or That Guy?

Let’s wrap-up this look at risers and fallers with a good, old-fashioned game of This Guy or That Guy for players with similar ADPs in 2021.

Chris Paddack—101 ADP in 2021 (55 ADP in 2020)

Ian Anderson—102 ADP in 2021 (642 ADP in 2020)

137 IP, 141 K, 3.79 ERA, 3.82 FIP, 1.12 WHIP—Paddack (ATC projection)

143 IP, 158 K, 3.69 ERA, 3.81 FIP, 1.27 WHIP—Anderson (ATC projection)

My take: After last season, these two pitchers converged around an ADP of 101-102 from very different places. Paddack was the Helium Guy last year. This year, it’s Anderson. I like both pitchers, but lean Paddack.

Zack Wheeler—105 ADP in 2021 (126 ADP in 2020)

Zack Greinke—106 ADP in 2021 (65 ADP in 2020)

184 IP, 172 K, 3.81 ERA, 3.68 FIP, 1.22 WHIP—Wheeler (ATC projection)

183 IP, 169 K, 3.92 ERA, 3.91 FIP, 1.16 WHIP—Greinke (ATC projection)

My take: In this battle of Zacks, I’ll take the veteran Greinke despite his age and 87 mph fastball. He still has impeccable control and knows how to pitch, like a late-career Greg Maddux.

Charlie Morton—119 ADP in 2021 (58 ADP in 2020)

Dylan Bundy—122 ADP in 2021 (246 ADP in 2020)

151 IP, 166 K, 3.73 ERA, 3.85 FIP, 1.20 WHIP—Morton (ATC projection)

170 IP, 173 K, 4.32 ERA, 4.44 FIP, 1.25 WHIP—Bundy (ATC projection)

My take: More than any other “This Guy or That Guy” in this series, this is a slam dunk for me. I would take Morton every day of the week and twice on Sunday. I just think he’s a better pitcher and Bundy’s 20-ish more innings pitched just means he’ll hurt you even more in ERA than he would if he only pitched 150 innings.

Sixto Sanchez—131 ADP in 2021 (603ADP in 2020)

Patrick Corbin—133 ADP in 2021 (47 ADP in 2020)

Pablo Lopez—133 ADP in 2021 (371 ADP in 2020)

142 IP, 128 K, 3.76 ERA, 3.70 FIP, 1.23 WHIP—Sánchez (ATC projection)

184 IP, 192 K, 3.91 ERA, 3.90 FIP, 1.27 WHIP—Corbin (ATC projection)

160 IP, 152 K, 3.80 ERA, 3.69 FIP, 1.22 WHIP—López (ATC projection)

My take: Two Helium Guys on the Marlins and an Anvil Guy on the Nationals are all very close in ADP. I think they’re all fine in this spot. The next starting pitcher behind them in ADP is Kevin Gausman and I believe all three should be ahead of him. I think Sánchez is the most talented of these three, but will pitch the fewest innings, so I would put him third. Corbin will pitch the most innings and get the most strikeouts, but likely with worse ratios. I’ll put him second. That leaves López as my favorite here.

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