Season Previews

Overreacting to 2020—Fantasy Baseball Strategies at Second Base

By Bobby Mueller

Posted on March 29, 2021

Share

Tweet

Share

Share

Email

Comments

Baseball fans know that last season was the most unusual season of our lifetimes due to a global pandemic. There was the initial spring training, followed by a long layoff, then a second spring training. The season was shortened to 60 games, with teams only playing teams in the same region of the country. Rosters were expanded, double-headers featured seven inning games, there was a universal DH, and extra-innings started with a runner on second. Two teams, the Marlins and Cardinals, had significant off time because of Covid breakouts, which also affected the schedules of numerous other teams.

With that in mind, the consensus during the offseason has been that we should not put too much emphasis on a 60-game season played during a pandemic. Players who outperformed expectations did so in a two-month season, which led to three qualifying pitchers with ERAs under 2.00 (Shane Bieber, Trevor Bauer, Dallas Keuchel). That last time that happened was 1972. On the other hand, some very good hitters performed well below expectations over the two-month season, including Nolan Arenado, J.D. Martinez, and Jose Altuve.

The thing is, we’re human. As much as we tell ourselves not to overreact to the results of a two-month season, we can’t seem help it. We have more vivid memories of the 2020 season than 2019 and recency bias creeps in. Rookies who debuted and performed well above expectations are like the shiny new toy that we get on our birthday.

One way this manifests itself is in the fantasy baseball world, where players coming off terrific seasons are likely being drafted higher than they should be and players who slumped in 2020 are dropping too far on draft boards. To analyze this, we can compare a player’s average draft position (ADP) in 2021 to their ADP in previous years to determine who has risen up the ranks and who has fallen out of favor based in large part on last year’s shortened schedule.

I compiled ADP data from the National Fantasy Baseball Championships website based on drafts from March 1 through March 14. I then compared this year’s ADP to previous years and sorted by position to get an idea of how fantasy baseball owners are valuing players.

This is the last in our series on Overreacting to 2020. You can see the rest here:

• Starting Pitcher
• Catcher
• Outfield
• First Base
• Shorstops
• Third Base

HELIUM GUYS

Dylan Moore, Seattle Mariners

• 2019 ADP: 749 (282 PA, .299 wOBA)
• 2020 ADP: 729 (159 PA, .368 wOBA)
• 2021 ADP: 125
• ADP movement: up 604 spots
• 2021 ATC projection: 506 PA, 65 R, 18 HR, 22 SB, .237/.321/.417, .321 wOBA

Dylan Moore kicked around the minor leagues with a few different organizations before getting a chance with the Seattle Mariners in 2019. He didn’t hit well, but stole 11 bases in 113 games, which is notable in the fantasy baseball world during an era in which steals are increasingly difficult to obtain.

Last year, he upped his hitting game considerably while also stealing 12 bases in 38 games and his ADP jumped into the top-10 among second basemen. That’s a quick ascent for a guy with just 441 career major league plate appearances of .224/.323/.427 hitting. His Statcast metrics for 2020 are impressive, with an 89^th percentile Barrell rate and 78^th percentile Hard Hit rate. Again, though, this came in about one-fourth of a regular season’s worth of plate appearances.

Moore’s 2021 projection from ATC above is the most optimistic of the various projections at FanGraphs. Their Depth Charts projection is .222/.302/.385, which is a well-below average .295 wOBA. He’s projected for 15-18 homers and 22 steals, though, which has pushed his ADP up to 125, roughly a 9^th round pick. That’s too high for my tastes.

Brandon Lowe, Tampa Bay Rays

• 2018 ADP: N/A (148 PA, .334 wOBA)
• 2019 ADP: 486 (327 PA, .354 wOBA)
• 2020 ADP: 197 (224 PA, .385 wOBA)
• 2021 ADP: 69
• ADP movement: up 128 spots
• 2021 ATC projection: 574 PA, 79 R, 28 HR, 84 RBI, 6 SB, .254/.333/.482, .347 wOBA

Lowe was a third-round draft pick by the Tampa Bay Rays in 2015 out of the University of Maryland, which is not exactly a hotbed of baseball talent. He was a bit above average in A ball in 2016, then upped his game considerably in 2017 and 2018. The Rays called him up to the big leagues in August that year and Lowe started his career by going 0-for-19, which is pretty much the opposite of Yasiel Puig, who started his career with a 16-for-32 hot streak.

Lowe righted the ship quickly in 2018 and finished the year with an above average .334 wOBA. This didn’t register much with the fantasy baseball community, though, as his ADP was 486 going into 2019. Lowe was even better in his second season, but was limited to 82 games because of a deep bone bruise from a foul ball to his foot and a strained quad. Still, his performance that season bumped his ADP up to 197, roughly a 14^th-round pick. He was finally healthy last year, playing in 56 of the Rays’ 60 games, and had his best season yet (.385 wOBA). Now he’s being drafted 68^th overall, right in the mix with Cavan Biggio and Keston Hiura. I like it.

Cavan Biggio, Toronto Blue Jays

• 2019 ADP: 727 (430 PA, .343 wOBA)
• 2020 ADP: 130 (265 PA, .355 wOBA)
• 2021 ADP: 67
• ADP movement: up 63 spots
• 2021 ATC projection: 631 PA, 91 R, 21 HR, 71 RBI, 17 SB, .240/.361/.423, .345 wOBA

Another big ADP jumper is Cavan Biggio of the Blue Jays, whose ADP is two spots ahead of Brandon Lowe. While Lowe’s Statcast data backed up his production last season, Biggio’s did not. Lowe’s .385 wOBA wasn’t far from his .382 xwOBA. Biggio had a .355 wOBA with a .315 xwOBA. This was reflected by a .250 actual batting average versus a .214 xBA.

Batting average is a negative fantasy category for Biggio, but he has good pop for a second baseman and should steal 15-20 bases. While he’s hit first or second in the lineup in 71 percent of his career plate appearances, he’s projected to drop down to sixth in the lineup after the Blue Jays signed free agents George Springer and Marcus Semien. On the other hand, he has 2B/OF eligibility in some leagues and will get 3B eligibility early in the 2021 season. There’s a mix of positives and negatives with Biggio. I like him well enough, but I’m more confident in Lowe.

ANVIL GUYS

Jose Altuve, Houston Astros

• 2018 ADP: 2 (599 PA, .363 wOBA)
• 2019 ADP: 16 (548 PA, .374 wOBA)
• 2020 ADP: 37 (210 PA, .278 wOBA)
• 2021 ADP: 93
• ADP movement: down 56 spots
• 2021 ATC projection: 580 PA, 87 R, 19 HR, 68 RBI, 8 SB, .276/.342/.449, .339 wOBA

The year-by-year ADP for Jose Altuve tells the story of a guy who improved over time to become a first-round pick for four straight years at his peak and is now in the downside of his career. His ADP this year is the latest he’s been drafted since before the 2012 season, which was his first full season in the big leagues.

• 2012—275 (19^th round in a 15-team league)
• 2013—91 (7^th round)
• 2014—92 (7^th round)
• 2015—14 (1^st round)
• 2016—12 (1^st round)
• 2017—5 (1^st round)   
• 2018—2 (1^st round)   
• 2019—16 (2^nd round)
• 2020—37 (3^rd round)
• 2021—93 (7^th round)

Altuve is such an interesting player. In his first three full seasons, he slugged .406 and averaged six homers and 41 stolen bases per year, including 56 bags in 2014. He also began a streak of hitting .313 or better for five straight years. The package of steals and batting average earned him first-round status heading into the 2015 season. He didn’t steal as much that year, dropping from 56 steals to 38, but more than doubled his home run total from 7 to 15 and maintained his first-round status. Then came back-to-back years with 24 homers and 30-plus more steals, cementing his status as a first-round player.

In 2018, Altuve had fewer than 600 plate appearances for the first time since his rookie year, which contributed to just 13 homers and 17 steals. He was picked just outside the first-round heading into 2019, but his playing time dropped again as he battled injuries. He hit a career-high 31 dingers, but stole just six bases, and his batting average dropped below .300 for the first time since 2013. Heading into last year, he was still being drafted in the 3^rd round.

The 2020 season was brutal for Altuve, as the guy with a career .311 batting average hit .219 and stole just two bases. His .278 wOBA was his worst ever and his .286 xwOBA wasn’t much better. He was well below league average in Exit Velocity, Hard Hit percentage, Barrell rate, you name it.

Despite the underlying metrics, I’m not out on Altuve. His sprint speed was 89^th percentile, so I think he can steal more bases if he so chooses and he’s reportedly in the mix for the leadoff spot after the departure of teammate George Springer from the Astros. He also hit well in the ALDS and ALCS, going 18-for-41, with five dingers. If you combine Altuve’s regular season with his post-season, you get a much more respectable .250/.333/.421 batting line, with 43 runs scored and 10 homers in 270 plate appearances. He had a bad 2020, but I think he’ll bounce back nicely.

Ketel Marte, Arizona Diamondbacks

• 2017 ADP: 552 (255 PA, .319 wOBA)
• 2018 ADP: 387 (580 PA, .330 wOBA)
• 2019 ADP: 218 (628 PA, .405 wOBA)
• 2020 ADP: 39 (195 PA, .316 wOBA)
• 2021 ADP: 84
• ADP movement: down 45 spots
• 2021 ATC projection: 629 PA, 82 R, 20 HR, 75 RBI, 7 SB, .288/.344/.475, .347 wOBA

Sesame Street has a fun game called “One of These Things is Not Like the Others” that could be played with Ketel Marte’s career. For Marte, the one thing that is not like the others is his 2019 season. After hitting 1 home run every 70 plate appearances in the first 1,548 plate appearances of his career, Marte hit one every 20 plate appearances in 2019. In 2020, he was back to his old ways, with 1 home run every 98 plate appearances. He also dropped from 10 stolen bases to one.

The fantasy baseball community responded by dropping Marte from an ADP of 39 to an ADP of 85, which is about a three-round drop. I would argue he should fall even further. He’s still being drafted ahead of Jose Altuve, who has a much longer track record of being a terrific hitter, while Marte only has that one season.

Keston Hiura, Milwaukee Brewers

• 2018 ADP: N/A
• 2019 ADP: 566 (348 PA, .388 wOBA)
• 2020 ADP: 44 (246 PA, .304 wOBA)
• 2021 ADP: 69
• ADP movement: down 25 spots
• 2021 ATC projection: 614 PA, 79 R, 29 HR, 84 RBI, 11 SB, .252/.320/.467, .335 wOBA

Hiura was a top-100 prospect two straight years before making his debut with the Brewers in May of 2019. He went 2-for-3 in his first game and just kept on hitting, finishing his rookie year with an impressive .303/.368/.570 batting line in 84 games. His .388 wOBA was 17^th in baseball for players with 300 or more plate appearances.

As good as he looked in 2019, there were some signs that he wasn’t really THAT good. His .402 BABIP propped up his batting average significantly. Hiura’s .249 xBA was 54 points lower than his actual batting average and his .344 xwOBA was 44 points lower than his actual wOBA. He struck out nearly 31 percent of the time and didn’t walk much (7.2 percent). Despite a few red flags, Hiura had an ADP of 44 heading into 2020.

In the 2020 season, Hiura’s strikeout rate increased to nearly 35 percent and his already-low walk rate dropped even more. When he didn’t get the good fortune on balls in play (His BABIP dropped from .402 in 2019 to .273 in 2020), his batting average dropped to .212. Fantasy owners have knocked him 25 spots of ADP, but I would argue that’s not enough because of the inflated numbers in his rookie year still propping up his value.

This Guy or That Guy (or That Guy)?

Let’s wrap-up this look at risers and fallers with a good, old-fashioned game of This Guy or That Guy for players with similar ADPs in 2021.

Cavan Biggio—67 ADP in 2021 (63 ADP in 2020)

Keston Hiura—69 ADP in 2021 (44 ADP in 2020)

Brandon Lowe—69 ADP in 2021 (197 ADP in 2020)

631 PA, 91 R, 21 HR, 71 RBI, 17 SB, .240/.361/.423, .345 wOBA—Biggio (ATC projection)

614 PA, 79 R, 29 HR, 84 RBI, 11 SB, .252/.320/.467, .335 wOBA—Hiura (ATC projection)

574 PA, 79 R, 28 HR, 84 RBI, 6 SB, .254/.333/.482, .347 wOBA—Lowe (ATC projection)

My take: There are many moving parts here with these projections, with two players projected to hit close to 30 homers and two projected for double-digit steals. I believe in Lowe’s bat more than the others based on his superlative Statcast data, so he’s my top pick here. Then I’d go with Biggio for his steals because I’m not confident that Hiura will steal 11 bases given his 56^th percentile sprint speed.

Ketel Marte—88 ADP in 2021 (39 ADP in 2020)

Jose Altuve—93 ADP in 2021 (37 ADP in 2020)

629 PA, 82 R, 20 HR, 75 RBI, 7 SB, .288/.344/.475, .347 wOBA—Marte (ATC projection)

580 PA, 87 R, 19 HR, 68 RBI, 8 SB, .276/.342/.449, .339wOBA—Altuve (ATC projection)

My take: Marte’s projection is a bit better than Altuve, but I can’t get past that one outlier season having such an influence on his projection. Altuve has a long history of above average hitting and is only 31 years old, so he’s still my guy.

Note #1: I refer to Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) above. It is a rate statistic that credits a hitter for the value of each outcome rather than treat all hits or times on base equally. It is on the same scale as On-Base Percentage (OBP) and is a better representation of offensive value than batting average, RBI, or OPS. I realize wOBA is not a fantasy baseball stat, but in general the top hitters in wOBA will be the top hitters in fantasy baseball, with the caveat that there are plenty of bad hitters who primarily provide value in fantasy baseball through stealing bases.

wOBA Scale:

• Excellent–.400 or above
• Great–.370
• Above Average–.340
• Average–.320
• Below Average–.310
• Poor–.300
• Awful–.290 or below

Note #2: I reference ATC projections above. These are composite projections created by Ariel T. Cohen using a “wisdom of the crowds” approach and are available at FanGraphs.