Byron Buxton for MVP?
The 2021 MLB regular season is finally under way and we are seeing the players who are off to incredibly hot starts. Despite decades of the sabermetric community preaching “small sample size,” the natural inclination is to take that information and make assumptions about who this season’s best players will be. Speaking of hot starts, Byron Buxton has kicked off his 2021 season absolutely smashing the ball, setting career highs in home run distance traveled with a pair of towering 456 and 451-foot home runs among the four that he’s belted in the first six games of the season. Last night, he smoked a ball at 110 mph and smacked two other base hits, finishing a triple shy of the cycle. It is clear that Buxton made it a point to become bigger, faster, and stronger during the offseason. The former top prospect is capable of an AL MVP type of season for this five tool player. Let’s take a look back at Buxton’s career leading up to this point, and then examine the possibility of the Twins centerfielder taking home the AL MVP hardware.
Buxton’s Career So Far
As a lifelong Twins fan, I love Byron Buxton. I have been a fan since he was drafted second overall in the 2012 MLB Amateur Draft out of Appling County High School in Baxley, Georgia, but it just seems like he has never been able to put all of that “most talented player in the draft” potential together for whatever reason. Well, actually, there is a reason, and that is injuries. Beyond extended time missed on the injured list, it seems that Buxton is constantly moving in and out of the lineup due to all of these nagging injuries. In looking back at his MLB injury history, not even counting his minor league injuries, it is extensive. Since his major league call-up back on June 14, 2015, Buxton has experienced injuries in each season that he has played, missing 370 total regular season games. That’s over two full 162-game seasons! It is tough to improve your skill on the field when you are constantly in the training room. Now, let’s take a look at Buxton’s career at the plate:
| Year | G | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS | OPS+ | TB |
| 2015 | 46 | 138 | 129 | 16 | 27 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 44 | .209 | .250 | .326 | .576 | 57 | 42 |
| 2016 | 92 | 331 | 298 | 44 | 67 | 19 | 6 | 10 | 38 | 23 | 118 | .225 | .284 | .430 | .714 | 90 | 128 |
| 2017 | 140 | 511 | 462 | 69 | 117 | 14 | 6 | 16 | 51 | 38 | 150 | .253 | .314 | .413 | .728 | 93 | 191 |
| 2018 | 28 | 94 | 90 | 8 | 14 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 28 | .156 | .183 | .200 | .383 | 5 | 18 |
| 2019 | 87 | 295 | 271 | 48 | 71 | 30 | 4 | 10 | 46 | 19 | 68 | .262 | .314 | .513 | .827 | 116 | 139 |
| 2020 | 39 | 135 | 130 | 19 | 33 | 3 | 0 | 13 | 27 | 2 | 36 | .254 | .267 | .577 | .844 | 126 | 75 |
| 7 Yr. | 435 | 1514 | 1388 | 206 | 332 | 78 | 17 | 53 | 175 | 93 | 447 | .239 | .291 | .434 | .725 | 93 | 603 |
| 162 | 162 | 564 | 517 | 77 | 124 | 29 | 6 | 20 | 65 | 35 | 166 | .239 | .291 | .434 | .725 | 93 | 22 |
In watching Buxton’s entire career to this point, I would say that it has been nothing short of frustrating. With a career .239 batting average and striking out almost 30% of the time he steps up to the plate, along with the injuries, you may be asking yourself “Is there really going to be a case for Buxton to win AL MVP?”
Let’s start with his rookie season. Being regarded as the overall top prospect in all of baseball, according to mlb.com’s “2015 Prospect Watch,” he came up, and quite honestly didn’t live up to the hype. While Byron managed to show some promise at the plate hitting .209 and stroking seven doubles in a small sample size of 138 at-bats, his outstanding fielding ability showed that he is one of the best athletes the game has ever seen and that we should be patient with him. Unfortunately, his rookie year was cut short due to a sprained left thumb.
The next few years (2016-2019) are depicted below:
| Year | Tm | G | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS |
| 2016-2019 | MIN | 347 | 1231 | 1121 | 169 | 269 | 67 | 16 | 36 | 139 | 58 | 6 | 83 | 364 | .240 | .296 | .425 | .721 |
Again, countless injuries filled this four year timespan for Buxton. Whether it was migraines, back spasms, a fractured toe, strained wrist, or something else, there was always something going wrong for the center fielder. On the field, we began to see a slight increase overall in quality of play, especially in the 2017 and 2019 seasons, but was still not what we once expected of this former tantalizing prospect. Off The Bench asked in 2017 Why Can’t Byron Buxton Hit?. This was a guy who was supposed to combine with the strikeout-ridden Miguel Sano to take the placeof hometown hero Joe Mauer as the face of the new-look Minnesota Twins. Buxton did manage to win his first gold glove in the 2017 season, boasting a .988 fielding percentage in that season.
Finally, in the pandemic-filled 2020 season, the then 26-year old Buxton finally “broke out” hitting .254 with 13 homeruns in only 135 at-bats. This massive power surge left me, and a lot of other Twins fans, wondering what could have been if 2020 were a normal, 162-game season. It seemed that, specifically in the second half of the season, each time Buxton stepped up to the plate that he was doing to hit the ball hard somewhere. He was finally transitioning into the player that we all wanted him to be. He finished 16th in AL MVP voting at the conclusion of the season.
2021 AL MVP
Coming off of that impressive 2020 breakout season, Buxton is primed to continue on that trajectory and only get better. He’s still just 27, the age when players are supposed to peak. Naturally one of the best fielders in the game with his Olympic-level speed, Buxton’s raw talent makes him one of the more unique players in the game today. It was rumored that Buxton got a lot stronger over the offseason, which is extremely evident just by looking at him on TV, and will be an asset for both him and the Twins this year. It is clear that he is the most important and impactful individual on Minnesota’s roster; as he goes, the the team goes.
Buxton is no guarantee to win the 2021 AL MVP – we’re 6 games into the season and he’s displayed power in spurts before – but with his added power, raw talent, and the fact that he is in the midst of his prime is promising. Is it really so ridiculous for the once top-prospect to hover around a .300 batting average, hit 40+ homeruns, steal 20+ bases, and make game-changing plays in the outfield? That type of season would make Buxton a shoe-in for the MVP award. He’s off to a strong start.
-Alex Wolfe
