Willy Adames Might Have Another Level
The Tampa Bay Rays are a thrifty, tightly run baseball organization. They consistently churn out a competitive team with the budget of a single parent with 3 kids. Primarily because the owners refuse to spend, and yet, the Rays went toe to toe with the $200 Million Behemoth that is the Los Angeles Dodgers in the 2020 World Series. And although they lost, they weren’t outclassed, they just ran into one of the best teams maybe ever.
However, in typical Rays fashion, they followed up their 2nd ever World Series appearance by making moves in the offseason that seemed to be predicated on shedding salary.
For example, trading arguably their best pitcher (Blake Snell) who was on a team friendly deal, for prospects, of which maybe 1 or 2 impacts the team this year. The impact of that move is arguable though and it might not quite have the impact that is expected on its face, but I’ve already written that article. This article is about another integral part of that Ray’s World Series team, their starting shortstop, Willy Adames.
2 months my senior, Adames has been the Ray’s primary shortstop since 2018. Acquired by the Rays from the Tigers via the David Price trade, he was rated as a top 10 prospect in baseball in 2017 (as per Baseball America). He was lauded for his strong defense up the middle and bat to ball skills coming up through the minors, as this excerpt from 2018 illustrates.
“Although already a tremendous defensive SS, he also profiles well as a 3B in the future if need be. Was noted by BA as the best SS in the International League, where they also ranked him as the 5th best prospect in the league. His patience and selectiveness at the plate, along with great hand-eye coordination, allow scouts to feel confident he’ll be successful against MLB pitching.” – Mat Germain
A valuable player indeed, and Adames has been an essential part of the team since his call up. He was key to Rays’ pennant run last season and will be crucial to upping their World Series chances in 2021, with the Rays currently sitting as +2500 – they have some tough competition to compete against. However, that scouting report may not ring as true anymore, as the numbers at the big league level paint a different picture.
Willy Adames
| PA | BB% | K% | WRC+ | BABIP | DRS | WAR | |
| 2018 | 323 | 9.6 | 29.4 | 110 | .378 | -8 | 1.4 |
| 2019 | 584 | 7.9 | 26.2 | 97 | .320 | 8 | 2.9 |
| 2020 | 205 | 9.8 | 36.1 | 124 | .388 | 2 | 1.5 |
| 2021 | 56 | 3.6 | 32.1 | 72 | .265 | 0 | 0.0 |
| TOTALS | 1168 | 8.5 | 29.1 | 105 | .344 | 2 | 5.7 |
Between the Covid-19 shortened 2020 season and his debut halfway through the 2018 season, we have about 2 years worth of PA (plate appearance) data on Adames at the MLB level. These 2 years of data shows him to be a slightly above average hitter and a solid defender at short.
However, the fluctuations in strikeout rate and incredibly high BABIP are worrying. When Adames had his best offensive showings (2018 and 2020), he ran unsustainably high BABIP rates and comparable strikeout rates to big power/big strikeout hitters, like Miguel Sano. Which is fine if you hit the ball as hard as Miguel Sano. But not many people do that, as Sano is in the 91st Percentile in MLB exit velocity, averaging 95.2 MPH off the bat in 2020. Adames unfortunately cannot say the same, as he was in the 42nd Percentile averaging around 88.8 MPH in 2020. But Adames doesn’t have to hit at that rate to be a viable MLB player as he plays a very good shortstop and Miguel Sano cannot say that.
However, if Adames’ strikeout rates stay at their current rate of around 29% and he runs into some BABIP bad luck, his offensive value will probably crater immensely, as we’re seeing in 2021. As of this article being written, Adames is batting .200 with a 72 WRC+ and a .250 BABIP.
The good news is that the fluctuations in Adames’ career lead me to believe that he isn’t a completely finished product. The cake isn’t all the way baked yet. And although Wander Franco and his various exploits have the baseball world frothing at the mouth, Adames is still a former top 10 prospect in his own right. And those do not grow on trees.
This era of baseball is one in which prospects are obsessed over almost as soon as they are signed, and heralded as the savior of the organization immediately. Sometimes even before they’ve taken an official Professional At Bat – a la Jasson Dominguez. At this point, there’s no denying that Wander Franco looks and performs like a generational up-the-middle athlete. However, Adames is damn good on his own, with a set of tantalizing tools that i don’t believe have been fully utilized.
Here’s how Adames’ tools stacked up vs. the MLB since his debut.
*Percentile Rankings
For reference: 100th Percentile = Elite 1st Percentile = Bad
| Avg. EV | Max EV | Hard Hit | Barrels | Chase Rate | Sprint Speed | OAA | |
| 2018 | 77th | 83rd | 9th | ||||
| 2019 | 34th | 76th | 32nd | 55th | 76th | 81st | 94th |
| 2020 | 50th | 61st | 56th | 64th | 55th | 83rd | 4th |
| 2021 | 53rd | 41st | 86th | 66th | 26th | 81st | 31st |
Courtesy of Baseball Savant.
If needed, you can follow the hyperlink for a quick refresher on the metrics being used.
These metrics fluctuate a good deal just like Adames’ traditional counting stats, but the fluctuations are smaller and allow us to more easily discern how his tools have played at the MLB level.
Adames’ speed has comfortably been in the 80th+ percentile since his debut, and coupled with his Max EV being above average in each season besides this year’s 20 game sample, it’s clear that Adames success at the big league level has not been a mirage. Adames’ Avg. EV has improved each year, going from 86.7 MPH to 89.6 MPH in 2021. This means that Adames has been making adjustments and they’ve been successful – adding 3 MPH in EV is not insignificant, and in the MLB, it can mean the difference between a utility player and a starter.
So we’ve established that Adames has hit the ball harder each season, now onto the defense. OAA, Outs Above Average, is a bit tougher to gauge, as it compares Adames defense to his peers, and if a few elite defensive guys are hurt one year, the stat can be skewed. But in the year that he appeared in the most games (2019), he was in the 94th percentile. Between that, positive marks from DRS and the eye test, I’m comfortable saying Adames is comfortably an above average defense shortstop.
So what have we learned so far? Adames is a speedy shortstop with some power in the bat and a dependable glove. He’s also shown the ability to adapt at the big league level. But his scouting report said most of that, so the question is, how can he put it all together? Where is the obvious improvement?
The low hanging fruit is his chase rate, as it has slowly eroded since 2019 while his hard hit percentage has gone up! He’s chosen to be more aggressive to get to more of his power, and it’s worked. Add that with the continuous gains in EV, and that strategy makes sense. However, Adames’ aggression needs to be tailored to how pitchers are approaching him as well. And as a staple of the bottom 3rd of the Ray’s order, Adames sees and will probably continue to see a heavy dose of fastballs. And that’s in any count, Adames has seen over 50%(!!!) fastballs in 2 strike counts since his debut.
Pitchers are not afraid to come right at him, and for good reason.
With 2 strikes, Adames is Slugging under .300 with a Batting Average of under .200. For reference, Jacob DeGrom’s career Batting Average is .196 and career Slugging % is .244. So Adames basically turns into DeGrom at the plate with 2 strikes. Against FASTBALLS.
Good stat for DeGrom, not so much for Adames.
So what’s the solution?
The first would be to not get to 2 strikes, genius I know. Adames’ 1st pitch swing % reflects that he’s aware of this strategy and taken this approach to heart. His 1st pitch swing % has gone from 27.9% in 2018 to 36.9% in 2021. Small sample aside, Adames has learned that pitchers are going to challenge him and he has responded appropriately. And so far the results are spectacular, as he’s batting over .600 on 1st pitches in 2021.
But this won’t always work, as he’s bound to run a 2 strike count eventually. And that’s where we are beginning to see an adjustment.
Willy Adames in 2 Strike Counts – Fastballs
| BA | xBA | SLG | xSLG | WOBA | xWOBA | EV | |
| 2020 | .094 | .087 | .189 | .168 | .194 | .184 | 85.3mph |
| 2021 | .136 | .212 | .136 | .455 | .169 | .310 | 97mph |
X = denotes expected performance based on underlying data and EV
Although 2021 has about ⅓ of 2020’s data, Adames has clearly made an adjustment, and a dramatic one at that. In 2 strike counts, Adames, “expected” stats: xBA,xSLG, and xWOBA, are all considerably higher and suggest that not only has Adames run into some bad luck, but that he has also made a dramatic and successful (so far) adjustment. Adames’ career SLG % is .423, so if his xBA thinks he’ll Slug better than that with 2 strikes (his 2021 xSLG is currently .455) that is a significant improvement and one that makes him a player to watch closely.
And if that isn’t enough for you, take a look at the difference in EV from 2020 to 2021. That’s a 12mph difference! That’s the difference between Aaron Judge’s Avg EV this year and Starlin Castro’s Avg EV. Nothing clever needs to be said to get that point across (I hope).
Willy Adames’ ceiling is still up in the air and this is very exciting. Even with Wander Franco knocking on the door to the MLB with both hands, it’s an adjustment that I hope/believe will stick. Adames has shown the propensity to adjust on the fly, and he was once what Franco is, a highly touted up-the-middle prospect expected to transform the Rays. But regardless of what is projected and written in a prospect handbook, the player still has to go out and perform. And Adames has done as much, with considerable room for growth that he appears intent on achieving. The question is whether he gets the opportunity to do so in Tampa.
