2021 Mock MLB Draft – 2 months out
This is one of the toughest MLB drafts to predict in recent memory. We’re still about 2 months away, so the task of mocking the draft is a little more reasonable than it was the last time I did this here. While this is normally pretty difficult, after a crazy year in 2020, it’s going to be even harder to figure out what MLB teams are thinking. A lot of team selections will come down to: team preferences, scouting looks and notes, confidence in a given pick. As always, MLB teams will have to juggle this with other factors like whether or not a team will try and save money for later rounds or how much confidence they will put into 2020 performance. This is more an idea of where I could see players falling and in what order at this point, rather than any sort of true prediction.
#1 Pittsburgh Pirates- Jordan Lawlar, SS, Jesuit Prep HS- Texas
The Pirates don’t have a true #1 pitcher let alone someone that’s better than a mid-rotation starter at the major league level at this point. They have a good chance to be picking first again in 2022 so some believe there might not be a rush to take a pitcher here and they might take the best hitter available and wait on an arm that they feel comfortable with later on in the draft as this year’s draft class has fewer impact bats. Pitching tends to fall to later spots. Following that logic, I think the Pirates will take Jordan Lawlar, a shortstop that has the chance to be a Carlos Correa type player that they hope has a similar impact at the MLB level. Their 2025 infield would consist of above average hitters and defenders with Ke’Bryan Hayes, Jordan Lawlar, and Nick Gonzales.
#2 Texas Rangers- Jack Leiter, RHP, Vanderbilt
The Texas Rangers are in an excellent spot as there will be plenty of elite talent available with two of the top group of Jordan Lawlar, Kumar Rocker, or Jack Leiter still on the board. I have the Texas Rangers taking Jack Leiter, who has been the most impressive pitcher this season and could easily go earlier than this. He already has a legitimate major league fastball that gets swing and misses in the strike zone from hitters, which he combines with a curveball, changeup, and slider that all have a chance to be above average pitches. It’s impressive how much velocity he’s gained since he was a prep pitcher back 2019 and he’s easily one of the more polished arms in this class, a distinction he also held in 2019.
#3 Detroit Tigers- Kumar Rocker, RHP, Vanderbilt
In the 2020 Draft, the Tigers didn’t draft any pitchers, but I think that changes this year with Kumar Rocker being the last left of the Big 3. The #1 ranked player in the preseason should fall no farther than this spot, helping to give the Detroit Tigers an impressive group of young arms with Casey Mize, Tarik Skubal, Matt Manning, and now Kumar Rocker. The interesting thing will be to see which arm develops into the Ace of the staff.
#4 Boston Red Sox- Marcelo Mayer, SS, East Lake HS- California
I was fortunate enough to see Marcelo Mayer play when he was with Team USA’s 17U Team and he was teammates with Jordan Lawlar. Both players were similar defensively and although Marcelo Mayer wasn’t seen much last summer due to Covid-19 travel restrictions, he still shows similar offensive ability and is considered to be the 2nd best prep player in the country. He’s one of the best left handed bats in this year’s draft class, and should be able to stick at a premium position. That combination has as a consensus top 5 overall pick.
#5 Baltimore Orioles- Brady House, SS, Winder-Barrow HS- Georgia
Brady House was the best player on Team USA’s 17U Team when I saw him play during the summer of 2019 but he struggled at Area Codes last summer and saw his stock take a bit of a hit. He’s all the way down to #5 here. He’s had a strong spring so far and has 70 grade raw power that should be very exciting to watch play someday in a lineup along with Adley Rutschman and Heston Kjerstad. Although this might be early, Brady House is a legit top 10 talent, which is always a good idea.
#6 Arizona Diamondbacks- Jackson Jobe, RHP, Heritage Hall HS- Oklahoma
Jobe was an athletic 2-way player that showed skills as a shortstop while also showing elite spin rates while at the Perfect Game National Showcase last summer. This spring, with his focus primarily on pitching, he has shown even better stuff with scouts giving him grades as high as 65 or better on three pitches. He has a chance to develop into a solid starting pitcher with potential for more. The Diamondbacks also love taking pitching.
#7 Kansas City Royals- Henry Davis, C, Louisville
The Royals have plenty of young pitching and Davis has experience working with elite young pitching having caught Reid Detmers and Bobby Miller while at Louisville. He won’t have to push Salvador Perez for playing time as there’s a chance he could end up playing third base but also he could serve as a backup catcher while also learning how to be a better blocking catcher. This seems like a good spot for Henry Davis who some believe is the top college hitter.
#8 Colorado Rockies- Sal Frelick, OF, Boston College
Boston College’s Sal Frelick is one of the best college hitters in this year’s draft class and is considered to be the best left-handed hitter in the draft. He should be considered a legitimate top 10 pick and there’s a chance he could go earlier than this.
#9 Los Angeles Angels- Ty Madden, RHP, Texas
Ty Madden is one of the top pitchers in college baseball and he’s the ace on a Texas team that’s among the best college teams in the country. His fastball sits in the upper 90s to go along with an above average slider and 6’3″ frame. I think he should be a top 10 pick in a class deep on college pitching.
#10 New York Mets- Gunnar Hoglund, RHP, Ole Miss
Hoglund has impressed so far while also being the ace of one of the best college baseball teams in the country. He also has a track record of throwing strikes to go along with a nice clean delivery and was a former first round pick as a high shooler, who did an excellent job of elevating his stock over his time at Ole Miss. If he’s healthy he’s a pretty safe lock for the top 10 and could go earlier than this.
#11 Washington Nationals- Khalil Watson, SS, Wake Forest HS- North Carolina
Khalil Watson has consistently risen over the past year and is now one of the top prep position players in the country. The Washington Nationals don’t have a very strong minor league system and could use an above average everyday kind of player in their system, Watson fits that role with upside for even more.
#12 Seattle Mariners- Sam Bachman, RHP, Miami (Ohio)
The Mariners love taking college pitchers as they’ve taken one every year since 2018. Bachman has power stuff with his fastball being able to touch triple digits and a slider that gets plus or better grades. He has had some control issues in the past but has been one of the best arms this spring. He should fit in well somewhere in the first half of the first round as his stuff should allow him to make it to the majors quickly.
#13 Philadelphia Phillies- Adrian Del Castillo, C, Miami
Del Castillo might not be considered a top 10 overall pick or the top college hitter in the draft but there is still a lot to like with him, especially if he can stick behind home plate. He is still considered to be one of the best left-handed hitters in this year’s class, which should help him to go somewhere in the middle of the first round.
#14 San Francisco Giants- Colton Cowser, OF, Sam Houston State
Colton Cowser is perhaps the best outfield bat in this year’s draft class as he was a member of Team USA’s collegiate national team as a freshman and has possibly the best combination of hit and power. He;s quick enough to stick in centerfield.
#15 Milwaukee Brewers- Jordan Wicks, LHP, Kansas State
Jordan Wicks is the consensus top left-handed pitcher in this year’s draft class. I was fortunate to get to watch him pitch last summer in a Northwoods League game and he was very impressive with the chance for a 70 grade changeup that’s a true swing and miss pitch while also showing polish. It should give him the chance to move quickly to the big leagues.
#16 Miami Marlins- Andrew Painter, RHP, Calvary Christian HS- Florida
The Marlins love drafting pitching and here I have them taking one of the top prep pitchers in the class. Painter could go much higher come June. He was one of the absolute best prep pitchers in the country last summer and he has an excellent chance to start with a chance for 3-4 above average or better pitches. This would be outstanding value for the Marlins.
#17 Cincinnati Reds- Harry Ford, C, North Cobb HS- Georgia
Harry Ford is an incredible athlete that’s super strong. He can hit for power, but unlike most catchers he’s an above average to plus runner. He also is a very good blocker with a nice strong arm that would allow him to play well at either catcher or third base. The Reds also love taking power hitting prep players and Harry Ford could be a great fit here.
#18 St. Louis Cardinals- Ryan Cusick, RHP, Wake Forest
Ryan Cusick is the definition of a power pitcher: he can get his fastball up around 100 mph and is among the best strikeout pitchers in the ACC. Pitchers with his ability and upside usually don’t last long and he could easily go earlier than this making this a great value pick if indeed he is available #18.
#19 Toronto Blue Jays- Matt McLain, SS, UCLA
McLain was considered to be among the best college hitters in the country with a chance to be a top 5 overall pick at one point. He has had some early struggles which allowed his stock to fall quite a bit. McLain could make his way to Toronto on a good discount with plenty of upside and value here.
#20 New York Yankees- Joe Mack, C, Williamsville East HS- New York
Joe Mack is considered to be one of the best prep catchers and although high school catcher is a risky demographic there is a chance that Mack might not even make it this far. There’s a lot to like with Joe Mack. He’s a very good defensive catcher that can really swing the bat well from the left side with the strength to project for above average or better power.
#21 Chicago Cubs- Joshua Baez, OF, Dexter Southfield HS- Massachusetts
The Cubs had some success with the last Baez they took in the first round. Javier Baez was an All-Star and helped them to win a World Series. They are hoping for similar success as they soon begin another rebuild. Joshua Baez has 2 very loud tools in his power and his arm strength, both of which profile well for right field. He has been clocked throwing as hard as 97 off the mound to go along with 70 grade raw power.
#22 Chicago White Sox- Benny Montgomery, OF, Red Land HS- Pennsylvania
Benny Montgomery probably has the loudest tools of all the players available at this point. He’s obviously a 1st round draft pick. There are some concerns however with the length of his swing and hand placement, but if he’s able to make the necessary adjustments he could prove to be a steal. He’s a very exciting player to watch as he is an elite defender with double plus speed, a cannon for an arm and plenty of raw power.
#23 Cleveland Indians- Chase Petty, RHP, Mainland HS- New Jersey
The Cleveland Indians love taking high school players early and aren’t afraid to take prep pitchers with high velocity. They recently picked Daniel Espino and Ethan Hankins. Chase Petty has the best fastball velocity in the class, touching 100+ multiple times and could develop into something special from that base.
#24 Atlanta Braves- Bubba Chandler, RHP, North Oconee HS- Georgia
Chandler’s stuff has taken a huge step forward this spring. He’s also athletic enough to play shortstop and earned a football scholarship as a quarterback to Clemson. Although there obvious signability concerns with that profile, he will probably go early enough, where the MLB team can lure his talents to the diamond. His fastball tops out at 97 and sits in the mid-90s regularly, to go along with a good curveball and he also shows promise with his changeup and slider.
#25 Oakland Athletics- Jud Fabian, OF, Florida
Jud Fabian is one of the more athletic players available. Although he has a lot of swing and miss in his profile, he hits for a lot of power and is a plus runner and with a chance to stick in centerfield. As a guy who was considered as a consensus top 10 pick going into the season, he shouldn’t fall outside the first round. If you were paying attention, you knew that Fabian may not hit well in the SEC. He’s a very good value pick here, with the potential to be a superstar if he just proves he can hit.
#26 Minnesota Twins- James Wood, OF, IMG Academy HS- Florida
Wood had an outstanding performance at the East Coast Pro Showcase, showing a ton of potential as a strong left-handed hitter that should be able to hit for power while stealing plenty of bases. He could easily go earlier than this, terrific value if he’s still available here.
#27 San Diego Padres- Jaden Hill, RHP, LSU
Although Jaden Hill has struggled this season and has gotten hurt, it is rare for a team that picks this late to get a guy that was considered one of the best pitchers in the draft. As mentioned in the intro, there isn’t a lot of certainty near the back end of this first round so talent is ruling the day. I think that the Padres could add another power pitcher to their system to help replace Cole Wilcox, who they traded in the Blake Snell deal. If everything clicks, this guy could prove to be a steal.
#28 Tampa Bay Rays- Tommy Mace, RHP, Florida
Tommy Mace has been one of the best college pitchers serving as the ace of a good Florida Gators team the past few seasons. There is a chance he could be a hot commodity as a senior sign with 1st round talent. He’s a very valuable pick wherever he ends up.
#29 Los Angeles Dodgers- Thatcher Hurd, RHP, Mira Costa HS- California
Hurd has always been considered one of the better prep pitchers in this year’s draft class, but he solidified his case this spring. He seems like a good fit to the Dodgers here as he’s a local kid with upside which could make him an even more enticing pick.
