The Angels are Always Interesting… Again
As of this writing, the Angels are 15-18 and in last place, albeit only 4.5 games out of first place and 2.5 games out of the last Wild Card slot. But of course, the standings mean little this early in the season. The Angels clearly haven’t buried themselves this year, but with the team’s lack of success this past decade, I’m sure that fans aren’t very happy that the team is only half a game better than the Orioles.
There has been lots of words written on the Angles failure to put a winning team around Mike Trout, who has only been to the postseason once in his illustrious career. Part of the Angels problem has been a player development issue. The Angels haven’t drafted and developed a player who is average or better in the Trout era, other than Trout himself. Hopefully, Jo Adell and Jared Walsh will break that streak. Perhaps more well known is how poorly the team has done in free agency.
C.J. Wilson wasn’t too bad, but he only accumulated 5.7 WAR in Anaheim and missed the entirety of the fifth and final year of his contract due to injury. His 4.35 RA9 is not very impressive given the ballpark and the quality of competition he faced. Wilson was brought to Anaheim with Josh Hamilton, who turned out to be a disaster in LA.
The Angels then acquired Justin Upton via trade, though they eventually signed him to a a five-year, $106 million deal that runs through the 2022 season. They probably should’ve just let him opt out after the 2017 season. He was quite productive in 2018, hitting .257/.344/.463 for a 117 DRC+ and 3.7 WAR. Since then, he has hit just .231/.301/.421 and his defense has taken a nose dive. He’s already at -5 DRS and we’re not even half way through May! I’m the Money-Doesn’t-Matter guy, but that has its limits. If he were producing just 2 WAR a season I’d have no problem with that for a $21 million AAV, but he has produced that much total since signing that new deal. Even with the shortened 60-game season last year, he’s been worth -1.7 WAR since 2019.
Okay, obviously we can’t talk about high-priced busts without talking about Albert Pujols. As has been well publicized, the Angels DFAed the aging star who has lost his twinkle in recent years.
Let’s get one thing out of the way first: Albert Pujols is one of the greatest first basemen of all time (Only Lou Gehrig surpasses him). During his time with the Cardinals he hit .328/.420/.617 for a 167 wRC+ and 86.6 WAR. Unlike his contemporary Miguel Cabrera, he was also an excellent fielder and ran the bases well. He could’ve retired after his final season with the Cardinals and sailed into the Hall of Fame.
As you know, the Angels gave the soon-to-be 32 year old a 10-year, $240 million deal. It worked out fine for the first four years of the deal, even though he wasn’t even half of what he was in his prime. Since 2016, however, he has been a sub-replacement level player, having deteriorated to a DH who can’t hit and runs like he’s carrying Aaron Judge on his back.
You could absolutely argue that the Angels should’ve done the DFA after Pujols’ disastrous 2017 season, and if this were just about anyone else, I’d agree with you. But this is a legend we’re talking about. It’s not that easy. Furthermore, since 2016, the Angels finished so far out of the playoff race each year that you can’t fairly say that Pujols made the difference.
This year is different. It’s Pujols’ last year, and the Angels have a promising young first baseman in Jared Walsh. He’s already been worth 1 WAR thanks to his terrific slash line of .324/.402/.541 with 6 HR. Playing Pujols means possibly sitting him or Ohtani, who is among the game’s most exciting talents. The team may only have a 34% chance to make the playoffs, per FanGraphs, but if they were to keep Pujols and miss the playoffs by only a few games, it would look TERRIBLE.
It sucks to see Pujols get let go so unceremoniously. However, we don’t know what happened behind closed doors. It’s doubtful that the Angels just kicked him to the curb; they likely gave him a chance to go out in a manner worth celebrating in exchange for a diminished role, only to see him reject it. It is completely Pujols’ right to find those terms unacceptable and pursue a role fit for his resume. It’s just unfortunate that we might have seen him play his last game. I just don’t see another team picking him up.
Regardless, Let’s lighten things up by highlighting a positive player acquisition move that went well recently for the Angels: Andrelton Simmons. The Angels acquired him via trade, not free agency, and had a productive run with the team. Putting aside the 2020 season where he played in only half of the 60 games and admitted to struggling with depression, he accumulated 19.4 WAR in four seasons. In addition to his all-world defense at shortstop, he also improved with the bat, turning in a .312 wOBA that was 20 points better than his time with the Braves.
Anthony Rendon and Shohei Ohtani appear to be turning around the Angels’ bad luck in free agency, and they’re fun to watch, too! Rendon doesn’t even have 300 PA yet, but he’s hitting .283/.403/.490 since joining the Halos last year. Ohtani has always been fun as a two-way player, and now he is really heating up at the plate, hitting .276/.326/.626 for a 163 wRC+. He’s not walking much, with a 4.5 BB% that’s about half of his career rate. On the pitching side, he’s doing well with a 3.38 RA9 and 35.7 K%, but his walk rate is outrageously high at 22.6%! He’s been effectively wild so far (I’ve always wanted to say that!). I’m concerned that his walk rate and .188 BABIP mean that he’s going to regress soon.
Speaking of pitching, the starting rotation has performed as poorly as expected. Their combined 5.66 RA9 is among the worst in baseball. Their peripherals aren’t bad, though. The 11.4 BB% is high but their 30.7 K% is the best in baseball! The funny thing is that Ohtani is a major contributor to both those stats! And so is José Quintana, another free agent pickup.
I thought the Angels did a great job in addressing their needs in the rotation by picking up Quintana. The results, unfortunately, have been disastrous. His RA9 is almost 10 with peripherals similar to Ohtani’s; both sport a high strikeout and walk rate. Quintana should be fine, though. As bad as the team’s defense is, it won’t continue to allow a .434 BABIP. We should also start seeing positive regression with respect to his 54% strand rate and 20% HR/FB ratio. Usually ERA/RA9 estimators don’t work on players with sky high RA9s, but we know Quintana is actually good. All that is to say that he currently has a 3.50 DRA. He’ll be fine.
Of course I’d be remiss to not mention my fellow Jersey boy, Mike Trout. I feel like every year I tell my wife, “It looks like Trout has gotten better,” to which she responds, “How is that possible?” Well, Trout is better. He is currently the league leader in offense, hitting .376/.488/.713 for a 227 wRC+. As good as his 2.0 WAR is so far, he’s actually not the league leader in that right now. Byron Buxton has 2.7 WAR thanks to having similar offensive numbers to Trout but with elite defense and baserunning. He is on the IL, however, so that lead is in jeopardy.
Trout is doing more than ever to bring the Angels to the postseason, but they still have just a one in three chance to get there. I really hope they make it. Baseball is better with Mike Trout in the postseason. At the very least, the team should be an interesting watch along the way.
-Luis Torres
