Bryce Harper Reminds Us Who He Is
#1 Overall Pick.
Cover of Sports Illustrated at 16 years old.
MLB debut at 19 years old.
MVP at age 22.
6x All Star.
One of those things feels like it doesn’t belong. But in the case of Bryce Harper, he’s seemingly earned that distinction. After his MVP year at 22, when he was almost twice as good as the average league hitter – 197 WRC+, 9.3 WAR – he has yet to reach such lofty heights again. In the 6 seasons following his crowning achievement, he has yet to achieve a season of even 5 WAR. His highest WRC+ has been 155. Which I should add is nothing to sneeze at, as he’s still been a comfortably better than league average thumper.
But we expected so much more.
We expected him and the baseball demi-god that is Mike Trout to battle for the face of baseball for the next 5-7 years. Instead, Harper has struggled to reclaim his MVP form and Trout has continued to stamp his ticket to Cooperstown while the Angels steadfastly refuse to help him.
With that said, Harper has been a great player regardless of his inability to measure up to Trout, mostly because no one truly measures up to Trout. But this article is about Bryce. Since 2012, only 5 players have been worth more WAR than Harper.
| 2012-2021 | Games | WRC+ | WAR |
| Mike Trout | 1243 | 175 | 77.4 |
| Buster Posey | 1121 | 130 | 48.7 |
| Josh Donaldson | 1073 | 140 | 43.4 |
| Mookie Betts | 877 | 136 | 41.3 |
| Paul Goldschmidt | 1296 | 141 | 40.9 |
| Bryce Harper | 1169 | 139 | 38 |
I said this isn’t a Trout article, but I couldn’t miss this opportunity to point out that he’s been twice as good as Harper per WAR, and almost 30 Wins better than the next closest player (Posey) in this time period. Bold Take: Mike Trout is Utterly Ridiculous at baseball.
But now you’re probably asking (and so was I), who is calling Bryce Harper overrated?
There’s a list. Starting with his own contemporaries.
In ESPN The Magazine’s player polls in 2014, 2018 and 2019, he was voted by his fellow players as the MLB’s “Most Overrated Player”. After signing his $330 Million Dollar Contract, he received a whopping 62 Percent(!) of the vote. The next closest candidate? Marcus Stroman at 4.1 percent. Whether it be personal dislike or his inconsistency, Harper is considered “overrated” by his peers, the people that get the closest look at him.
Adding more fuel to the “overrated” fire, Harper’s former employer – the Washington Nationals – of noted postseason heartbreak, let Harper walk in free agency.
They then subsequently won the World Series with Harper’s replacement – a Mr. Juan Soto – claiming the big stage and wrecking baseballs throughout the postseason. All before being of legal drinking age. Soto was phenomenal that year, and became the 4th player in MLB history to record 100 extra base hits before his 21st Birthday, joining none other than Harper in the history books.
Combine the opinions of his peers with Soto immediately taking his mantle as Washington’s face of the franchise, and you start to get the picture of why some consider him overrated. Then you add in the fact that he and Trout debuted in the same year and Trout has been worth more than twice the amount of WAR Harper has produced, and it’s even clearer. That doesn’t make it true, or even fair, but it makes the picture clear.
But there are caveats.
Mike Trout is on a trajectory to be one of the 10 best players to ever lace up spikes, he’s a Hall of Famer if he retires TODAY. One of my favorite tweets/stats ever is from a few years ago.
“18,918 players have played Major League Baseball. Mike Trout, who is 25 years old, has been worth more WAR than 18,589 of them, or 98.2%.” – MLBRandomStats
That was after Year 5 (!) of Trout’s career. So I’m not holding anything against Harper for not measuring up to that ridiculous level of production. Nor should you.
Next, Juan Soto is also ridiculous. He played 8 (!) games at AA before being called up to the Major Leagues and hasn’t done anything but mash. His lowest WRC+ is 114, which is his current WRC+ in 2021, in which he’s been playing through a shoulder strain. That’s not normal.
It seems that Harper has just had “bad luck”(as much bad luck as someone being paid $300+ million can have).
He’s fulfilled his prophecy as the #1 pick and some. He’s won an MVP, Silver Slugger, been an All-Star, and signed for over $300 Million, or the equivalent of the GDP of Micronesia. Harper himself is on a Hall of Fame trajectory. And yet, he’s been overshadowed by one of the greatest ever and immediately replaced by Soto, who has almost equaled Harper’s first 3 seasons in terms of WAR.
So what is Harper going to do about it? The answer seems to be, just hit.
| Harper Percentile Rankings | 2020 | 2021 |
| Avg. EV | 93rd | 85th |
| Max EV | 96th | 99th |
| Hard Hit % | 92nd | 80th |
| xwOBA | 99th | 100th |
| xBA | 96th | 97th |
| xSLG | 99th | 99th |
| Barrel % | 97th | 96th |
| K% | 77th | 48th |
| BB% | 100th | 95th |
Since 2020, Harper has returned to the top of his game, but maybe new age stats don’t quite paint a vivid enough picture for you.
| BA | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
| 2020 | .268 | .420 | .542 | .962 |
| 2021 | .292 | .419 | .542 | .960 |
Harper’s 2020 OPS was top 10 in the league. And he picked up right where he left off this year. Except, the advanced stats say he’s UNDERperforming his metrics!
| xBA | xwOBA | xSLG | xwOBACON | |
| 2021 | .322 | .464 | .679 | .581 |
The advanced stats have Harper projected for a 1.143 OPS, almost 200 points higher than he’s hitting now. Which is firmly Trout-ian territory. Harper is also hitting the ball as hard as ever (2nd highest Avg. EV for his career, 0.4 MPH less than 2020) and barreling balls (barrel %, see above chart) better than 96% of the league.
And the best part? He’s outpacing his MVP year in “expected” (x) OPS. He’s as dialed in at the plate as he’s ever been.
At age 22, Bryce Harper won an MVP and struggled to reclaim that level of production in subsequent years. And by struggle I mean make 3 All-Star Teams, receive down ballot MVP votes and sign for $300+ million. Since his debut, Bryce Harper has fluctuated between good and great, but since 2020, he has been firmly great, and at age 28, the next few years should be his peak. If he sustains this level of production, which the advanced stats paint as an “under” performance, the “Overrated” chants will grow more and more distant.
Bryce Harper’s legacy is anything but defined.
