Joey Gallo is Aaron Judge in a Cowboy Hat
Seeing these heights and weights, you would think I am either beginning a foray into NFL Tight End analysis, or describing small forwards who might go high in the NBA draft at the end of this month.
Solid guesses, but you’d be wrong.
Those numbers belong to men who play for the New York Yankees and Texas Rangers respectively. They are both All-Star Outfielders who will be on the same team in Denver next weekend. And regardless of current work geography and swinging the bat from different sides of the plate, they are remarkably similar.
Judge was drafted in 2013 with the 32nd Overall Pick.
Gallo was drafted in 2012 with the 39th Overall Pick.
Judge has hit 138 Home Runs in 6 seasons.
Gallo has hit 141 Home Runs in 7 seasons.
Judge won the 2019 Wilson Defensive Player of the Year (Right Field).
Gallo won a Rawlings Gold Glove in 2020 (Right Field).
Judge has 2162 career PAs and 502 Games Played.
Gallo has 2118 career PAs and 553 Games Played.
Both have missed extensive time due to injury.
They are also both Free Agents in 2023.
Twins, basically.
But there’s one difference, and it’s a big one.
Judge
Career WAR: 21.3
Career WRC+: 151
Gallo
Career WAR: 12.8
Career WRC+: 116
We don’t need a deep analysis of those numbers to tell you that Judge has been much better than Gallo in basically the same period of their careers. So with that said, thanks for clicking, enjoy the rest of your day/night.
Not really.
Gallo had the worst season of his career offensively in 2020. Good for an 86 WRC+.
However, since it was maybe the strangest season in baseball history and also a global pandemic that has altered the past and present of the global population, I am going to ignore that 57 game albatross.
Here is how Gallo and Judge stack up in 2019 and 2021.
| 2019 | WRC+ | WAR | PA | BB% | K% | HR | ISO |
| Judge | 141 | 4.6 | 447 | 14.3% | 31.5% | 27 | .267 |
| Gallo | 144 | 3.3 | 297 | 17.5% | 38.4% | 22 | .344 |
2019: Although Gallo had 150 fewer plate appearances than Judge (who also got hurt) due to injury, he was on pace for his best season yet and was on a 7 WAR pace, same as Judge.
| 2021 | WRC+ | WAR | PA | BB% | K% | HR | ISO |
| Judge | 147 | 2.5 | 330 | 13.0% | 25.8% | 19 | .239 |
| Gallo | 143 | 3.1 | 333 | 19.2% | 31.5% | 21 | .259 |
2021: Heading into the All-Star Break, Gallo has been a little unlucky at the plate (his xSLG is .517, his current SLG is .492) but leads in WAR due to being the superior outfielder.
Here are those numbers combined:
| Total | WRC+ | WAR | PA | BB% | K% | HR | ISO |
| Judge | 144 | 7.1 | 777 | 13.7% | 28.7% | 46 | .253 |
| Gallo | 144 | 6.4 | 630 | 18.4% | 35% | 43 | .302 |
** .5% was rounded UP not down for the purposes of this chart.
As you can see, the numbers are SHOCKINGLY similar. They get their value in slightly different ways, but the end result is more or less the same.
Gallo and Judge have both done a significant job of cutting down their K% and they are both running their lowest K% of their careers.
So if Gallo has basically been Judge 2 out of the last 3 seasons, why isn’t he getting more attention? Simply put, the Rangers are bad and the Yankees are good.
But Very Good players on bad teams need some love too, so let’s see how Gallo has trimmed his K% from a high of 38.4% in 2019, to the 31.5% it is this year. And along the way, become Judge-ian(?)
The first thing that stands out to me is Gallo’s launch angle. This year it is 21.1 Degrees, which is the lowest of his career. But his Launch Angle in 2019, was 22.4 Degrees, so it is indeed a change, but not a big enough one to give all the credit to his reduction in strikeouts.
Another interesting change is his 1st Pitch Swing %, it’s gone up from 27.4% to 31.5%. Dramatic? No but it’s hard to strike out if you put the first pitch in play. But these are both just anecdotes on the back of the book. Meaningful for sure, however they don’t tell the whole story.
So let’s see if there is any change in his batted ball profile.
| Pull | Straight | Oppo | |
| 2019 | 51.2% | 30.2% | 18.6% |
| 2021 | 41.6% | 32.9% | 25.5% |
And there’s the thesis. A dramatic shift, and not an easy one.
It looks as if someone got into Gallo’s ear and told him what the Yankees have told Judge since his call up:
“You’re a massive human who can hit the ball out anywhere, just hit what the pitcher throws you in the air somewhere and start your trot.”
Just for fun, let’s look at Judge’s batted ball profile for comparison.
| Pull | Straight | Oppo | |
| 2021 | 37.3% | 36.8% | 25.9% |
See what I mean? And yes, I am aware that “hit the ball where it’s pitched” is not rocket science, and the average Little League coach tells his players pretty much the same thing.
But,
1. This is baseball, the answer doesn’t need to be complicated, it just needs to work (and be sustainable).
2. Gallo became an All-Star pulling the ball 50+% of the time. If he decided not to change and to keep pulling titanic homers, who could blame him? A
All in all, Gallo’s changes have made him more dangerous than ever, and this may yet to be his peak. The Yankees will have an interesting decision in 2023. Judge is a generational talent, captain of the team and face of the franchise. But he is a gargantuan man whose body has shown a propensity to break down with or without constant load (pause) maintenance, and he will be 31 in 2023. Giancarlo Stanton is also on the roster and in the same boat. There’s only one DH spot per team as of now, unless Manfred continues to make a mockery of the game (solid possibility) that will probably not change.
Gallo on the other hand, is a slightly less gargantuan figure, will only be 29, and is the better outfielder. And oh, did I mention he’s left-handed? Gallo hitting balls onto the 4 train at Yankee stadium would be a welcome sight for Yankee fans and might be the right choice as well between the two.
I’m just glad I don’t have to make that decision. Good luck Cashman.
