Giant(s) Trade Targets
There aren’t many followers of baseball who would have predicted that the Giants would have the best record in baseball at 54-32 mere days before the All-Star break. Their +106-run differential, third best in the majors, proves that they haven’t fluked their way here through a bunch of bloops and lucky breaks. They’re the real deal, and they’re going to be in the thick of the playoff race (at least) through the end of the season, but the Dodgers have been steadily closing the gap and exhaling their hot, sticky breath on the back of the Giants’ necks. The Padres have also been turning up the heat lately, and both of the Giants’ SoCal rivals look primed to add on to their talent base at the deadline. If the Giants want to keep pace, they have to look long and hard at available upgrades they could make in the next few weeks to put themselves over the hump and into the legitimate contender headspace.
The bullpen help has been one of their biggest areas of need for quite awhile now, going back to before Trevor Gott single-handedly ruined the Giants’ playoff hopes last year. Their rotation has been better than they could have possibly hoped for, but nearly all of their key starters will be free agents at the end of the year. Losing important pieces like Kevin Gausman, Anthony DeSclafani and Alex Wood would be a problem, but their expiring contracts do present the Giants with some flexibility both at the deadline and in the offseason. In the short-term, it allows them to broaden their search to acquire a bullpen arm or a controllable starter at the deadline, which would then force one of their back-end starters to soak up innings in the pen for the time being. Adding another starter would plug a hole they would have had to fill during the offseason while simultaneously adding on to an area of strength for the stretch run – which all seems like a great idea.
On the hitting side, the Giants have been doing just fine plating runs against right-handed pitchers but haven’t shown the same proficiency against lefties. Lefty-smasher Evan Longoria has been out with a sprained shoulder for the past month, Donovan Solano hasn’t looked like the Silver Slugger he was last year, and utilityman Mauricio Dubón was recently sent down in favor of the unproven Thairo Estrada. A proven right-handed bat could be one of GM Farhan Zaidi ’s targets when haggling with other clubs.
Twins Send: RHP Kenta Maeda and 1B Miguel Sanó
The Twins have been the most disappointing team of the year, with a lousy 36-50 record at the midpoint of the season that has them at the bottom of a weak division. Maeda and Sanó haven’t been part of the solution this year, both enduring bad seasons despite their proficiencies in the past. It could be that they would benefit from a change of scenery and be shrewd buy-low acquisitions that reach their high ceilings, so if the price is right Zaidi might want to be opportunistic and pounce. Maeda has put up a 5.03 ERA with a 4.56 FIP and 1.45 WHIP in his 13 starts, a far cry from the 2.70 ERA/0.75 WHIP/3.00 FIP he compiled last year. Sano has only hit .202/.282/.452 with a 96 wRC+ between this year and last, so he hasn’t been too good for a while, but his .247/.346/.576 line from 2019 and career 117 wRC+ shows that he’s got a lot of potential to tap into. Both he and Maeda are also controllable for another two years after this one (Sanó via a 2023 club option). Maeda would fill a hole left from the aforementioned trio of departing starters and Sanó would presumably take over for the possibly soon-to-depart Brandon Belt.
Pirates Send: RHP Richard Rodríguez
Sadly enough for the Giants, there’s no undoing the Bryan Reynolds trade – but they could at least get their mitts on another one of the Pirates’ most valuable trade chips. Rodríguez has quietly been having an excellent season for the downtrodden Pirates, with a 2.43 ERA and 0.78 WHIP in his 33 innings, compiling 11 saves along the way. He’s done this while only striking out 7.29/9, but his 0.81 BB/9 has been phenomenal. Even though his FIP is lower than his ERA, there’s a problem – his xFIP is 4.79. xFIP. In other words, Rodríguez has been more lucky than good, despite the sterling walk ratio, because he’s not giving up many homers. Indeed, his 1.9% HR/FB ratio is well under that roughly league-average 10.5% mark – and even further under his career 11.1%. With his low strikeout totals, if more of his fly balls start leaving the yard, he’s in trouble. The good news is that Oracle Park has historically been a good park for keeping the ball in the yard, even if that’s not as much the case now as it used to be. Every competitive team will be looking for bullpen help in the next few weeks, and Rodríguez is one of the few back-end options likely to be on the move – but if the price is reasonable enough, Zaidi could pounce.
Cubs Send: 3B/OF Kris Bryant and RHP Craig Kimbrel
This is a blockbuster that Giants fans would kill for, and very un-Zaidi-like in practice. However, the Giants haven’t really ever been this competitive since he took over in the first place. You might also ask, why would the Cubs give away such top-tier talent willy-nilly? If you’re asking that, you haven’t watched them play baseball in the last couple weeks. They lost eleven straight between June 25th and July 7th, with GM Jed Hoyer admitting that losing has changed their outlook at the deadline. “Eleven days ago, we were certainly fully on the buying side … and obviously (teams) are now calling to see which players are available,” Hoyer said. “So it’s a very different scenario than we’d expected. Life comes at you fast.” Fangraphs has their playoff odds at 6.6% entering play Thursday, which seems a little pessimistic, but perhaps rightfully so. In any case, not selling would be a highly irresponsible strategy when all of Bryant, Javier Báez and Anthony Rizzo will be free agents at the end of the year anyway. Bryant’s positional flexibility and strong bat would be a boon for Giants manager Gabe Kapler, who could shift him to the outfield once Longoria comes back. Longo would also be able to ease into regular duty this way and take frequent rests to help keep him healthy and productive. Kimbrel would easily claim the closer’s role and become a potential postseason weapon were he to be acquired, and he’s under control for next season too. Trading for both Bryant and Kimbrel would mean a hefty haul is headed to the North Side, but one or the other could be a realistic – and worthwhile – target.
Marlins Send: OF Starling Marte and RHP Dylan Floro
Marte has been excellent this year, with a .283/.395/.433 line and 135 wRC+ that is on pace to be the best of his already solid career. That .395 OBP with his good speed (16 SB in 50 games) would look awfully good as the Giants’ new permanent leadoff guy. If he were to be acquired, he’d probably take center field away from Steven Duggar, who finally is starting to deliver on some of the promise he tantalized for so long. But he’s also come back to Earth over the last few weeks. It would make a good deal of sense for Duggar to be one of the pieces in the return, though, as the Marlins would surely be attracted to his years of remaining team control as opposed to Marte’s rental status. Marte has vocalized that he’d like to remain in Miami for the rest of his career, and apparently they have already presented him with an extension offer. If it falls short of the three- to four-years in the $50 million range that he’s looking for though (which seems eminently reasonable), he’ll definitely be donning a new uni come August – and since we’re talking about the Marlins here, they probably offered him $4 million with a 1% take on concessions.
Floro would be a nice setup piece who has been good this year as well as last year for the championship Dodgers, and you know how Zaidi has a penchant for ex-Dodgers. Closer Yimi García would only be slightly more expensive in a trade than Floro, and conversely, if the Giants are feeling sentimental, old friend and lefty-smasher Adam Duvall could be a cheaper alternative than Marte. In my view, there are a lot of different ways that the Giants and Marlins could match up as trade partners this month.
Nationals Send: RHP Max Scherzer
The Nationals are disappointing yet again with a 42-43 record and few obvious ways to meaningfully improve before the deadline. Fangraphs has their playoff odds at 6.3%, and Stephen Strasburg’s contract is looking reeeeally scary, so why not throw in the towel for the year and get some young talent to build around Juan Soto and Trea Turner entering 2022? Scherzer has been his usual dominant self even as he approaches his 37th birthday, sporting some impressive numbers like a 2.66 ERA, 0.88 WHIP and 12.3 K/9. He had a really rough outing on Thursday, giving up seven earned runs which included a grand slam to Padres reliver Daniel Camarena of all people, but one start does not a bad season make.
As if trading a household name wasn’t complicated enough, Scherzer has 10-and-5 rights, which veterans accrue if they have banked 10 years of major league service time and spent the past five consecutive years with the same team. These rights give Scherzer the ability to veto a trade to any destination he doesn’t approve of – or he could demand a contract extension as a bribe for accepting a deal. Scherzer holds all the cards here, but as he stares down the barrel of 40, you’d have to imagine he wants another go at winning a World Series. If so, and if the Giants are willing to even approach what would surely be a painfully steep asking price, Scherzer and Gausman as co-aces atop the rotation would be a force to be reckoned with.
