MLB Outfielders Have Never Been Worse
As recently as March, you could argue that the New York Yankees had the best collection of outfielders in MLB. Left fielder Clint Frazier broke out in 2020. Center fielder Aaron Hicks was a switch-hitter with power and an outstanding walk rate. Right fielder Aaron Judge was a perennial MVP candidate. It’s July now; Frazier has bottomed out and Hicks is hurt for the year. Judge has been mostly spectacular, but he’s currently on the COVID IL. Following the All-Star break, here’s who played the outfield for the Yankees in a three-game series against the Boston Red Sox:
Six of the seven have 24 career home runs combined. The other is Brett Gardner, who— to put it kindly— has too much experience. Amburgey and Park made their MLB debuts. Park and Wade aren’t even outfielders by trade at all.
The Yankees are an easy, visible target, but this is indicative of a league-wide trend. MLB outfielders have a combined 99 wRC+ this season, which means their total offense is one percent lower than the league average. Traditionally, the outfield is where sluggers roam, especially in left and right. This is a historical anomaly— Since the birth of the American League in 1901, outfield wRC+ has never been below 100.
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The drop in production from outfielders is not entirely out of left field (pun intended). Offense has dropped each of the last three years:
- 2018: 103 wRC+
- 2019: 102 wRC+
- 2020: 101 wRC+
- 2021: 99 wRC+
A few points may not seem like a huge decrease, but outfielders accumulate roughly 72,000 plate appearances across MLB in a normal 162-game season (which 2020 obviously was not). With such a robust sample size, each point of wRC+ is significant. One-third of the lineup— of all lineups— has dropped from three percent above average to one percent below average since 2018.
Of course, there have to be corresponding gains at other positions. Catchers are up from 84 to 89 wRC+ since 2018. Second base is up from 93 to 97. Shortstop improved two points from 95 to 97. These are the three most physically demanding positions on the field, and historically, the three worst hitting positions as well. Here are three completely untested theories on why they’re gaining ground on outfielders:
- Catchers: Offense from catchers dropped off a cliff about six years ago when every team got on board the pitch-framing train. Bat-first backstops phased out out of the game. Now, pretty much every catcher is a good-enough pitch framer, so offense is rebounding.
- Second Base: In the age of positionless baseball with drastic shifting everpresent, clubs put fielders where the batter will hit most likely hit the ball. This makes it easier to “hide” a lesser defensive infielder who provides better offense.
- Shortstop: Fernando Tatis, Jr.
Turning back to outfielders, defense could play a role in their decline as well. If an infielder can’t get to a batted ball, it’s a single. If an outfielder can’t get to a ball, it’s often extra bases. Teams may be less willing to play a lumbering slugger in left or right field because the cost in runs allowed is too great. 2018 is right around when Nelson Cruz and Giancarlo Stanton stopped playing the field. It’s also when Statcast unveiled their Outs Above Average metric, reframing outfield defense in the public sphere.
Who’s to Blame
The best outfielder of all, Mike Trout, is injured. Before getting hurt, he posted a career-best 193 wRC+, and a career-best for Trout in any category is saying something. He can’t pull the league average up when he’s not on the field though.
Trout may be only one player, but he could be indicative of a trend. More of the best hitting outfielders are missing playing times than usual… sort of. Here’s the percentage of outfielders with greater than a 110 wRC+ each year (minimum 50 PA):
- 2018: 33.0%
- 2019: 30.0%
- 2020: 34.0%
- 2021: 30.1%
There are almost four percent fewer good-hitting outfielders than last year. 2020 was an aberration because of the shortened season, and really 2021 looks a lot like 2019 in this regard, so this alone doesn’t explain everything. But at the other end of the spectrum, more bad-hitting outfielders are getting significant playing time than usual.
Here’s the percentage of outfielders with less than a 90 wRC+ each year (minimum 50 PA):
- 2018: 42.4%
- 2019: 41.8%
- 2020: 42.0%
- 2021: 43.9%
We see an increase in bad-hitting outfielders getting lots of plate appearances. In some cases, this is because injured sluggers like Trout yield time to lesser replacements. In others, players like Brett Gardner just got old.
Trout isn’t alone. Let’s look at the wRC+ for the top 50 outfielders in plate appearances:
- 2018: 117
- 2019: 118
- 2020: 120
- 2021: 114
Clearly, there’s some level of offensive attrition among players who start every day. Most likely, some combination of all these factors caused the decline.
Outfielders at the Trade Deadline
There are more than two months remaining in the season, so there’s plenty of time for outfielders to collectively pick up the pace. They could still finish with a wRC+ north of 100, but really that doesn’t mean much other than statistical novelty.
There’s a lot less time remaining until the trade deadline, and what this all really means is that there’s an outfielder shortage. The Yankees are just one club that needs to bolster their outfield. So do the Rays, Mets, Mariners, and roughly half of MLB. The Braves already traded for Joc Pederson and his 99 wRC+.
If a non-contending team, such as the Rangers, had a desirable outfielder for sale, such as Joey Gallo, they could demand a king’s ransom. A seller’s market could even persuade teams on the buy/sell border to post their outfielders to the market. The Nationals might see what they can get for Kyle Schwarber as opposed to joining the bidding to gear up for a playoff push.
Good-hitting outfielders are harder to find in 2021 than at any point in MLB history. This is part of a multiyear trend, but the short-term scarcity will have a major impact on the trade deadline. Any team that can substantially improve in areas where their competitors are weak will have a big leg up for the stretch run.
