Dissecting Aaron Loup’s Impressive Streak
Relief pitchers in 2021 have to face at least three batters when they come into a game. In an effort to speed up the pace of play, Commissioner Rob Manfred took aim at Left-handed One Out Guys (LOOGYs). These were some of baseball’s best characters, funky southpaws with weird deliveries that rained deception upon some of the game’s best sluggers’ fires. New York Mets reliever Aaron Loup is the archetype of a LOOGY. He’s left-handed, he throws from a weird arm angle that might make him the most left, is nearly 34 and pitching for his 5th organization in 4 years. He is also getting everyone out. Aaron Loup – yes, that Aaron Loup – is currently in the middle of one the best pitching streaks of the 2021 season, one that is reminiscent of Zach Britton’s 2016 campaign. Loup entered the May 22 game against the Miami Marlins with a 3.18 ERA but has allowed only one run since then. His 0.30 ERA over that 34 game stretch brought his ERA for the season down to 1.09.
During this stretch, Loup held opposing batters to a .152 batting average and allowed just one extra-base hit while facing 110 batters. In comparison, Jacob degrom, one of the most dominating pitchers on the planet, averaged one extra-base hit every 15 batters in 2021.
What makes Loup’s streak even more impressive is his ability to strand runners. During 10 August outings, Loup inherited 10 runners but allowed just two of the 24 batters he faced to reach, and left all 10 on base. He stranded all 20 inherited runners during his 34 game stretch.
The last Mets reliever to have such a dominant stretch was Mark Guthrie back in 2002. Guthrie went 33 consecutive games without allowing a run and posted a similar 0.30 ERA over a 39 game stretch. However, Guthrie threw 29.2 innings over his 39 games versus Loup’s 30 in 34 games.
When comparing Loup’s streak to others across the majors, it’s evident that not many relievers have come close to his success in 2021. In June, he posted a 0.00 ERA While posting a 0.87 ERA in July. Only five other relievers posted an ERA under 2.00 in both June and July while playing in more than 10 games each but none have been as dominant.
The five remaining relievers are Dominic Leone, Adam Cimber, Jake McGee, Joe Kelly, and Lou Trivino. Of those five, only two were able to come close to Loup’s success. McGee posted a 0.30 ERA over a 30 game stretch but a 0.81 ERA over 34 games while Trivino posted a 0.78 ERA over 34 games.
However, Trivino is the only other reliever to show this level of success over a longer period of time. Over the course of a 39 game stretch that ended August 20, Trivino’s ERA was 0.67. If Loup plays his cards right, he could have a better ERA over 39 games and beyond.
Loup’s success isn’t something that just appeared out of the blue either. He’s been getting significantly better each year. Between 2016 and 2018, his ERA was 4.19 over the course of 150 games. Since the start of the 2019 season, his ERA is an impressive 1.55.
He even had a short but very dominant streak last season as a member of the Tampa Bay Rays. During his final 11 games of the regular season, his ERA was 0.79 while his WHIP was just 0.54. If you include the 2020 postseason, his ERA was just 0.59 over a 17-game stretch.
Going back to when that streak first began last August 29, Loup has posted an ERA of just 1.03 over his last 60 regular season games. All Loup needs to do is get 4 outs without giving up an earned run over the Mets next five games and his ERA over a full calendar year will be below 1.00, which is a tough feat to accomplish.
Loup has been one of the Mets best acquisitions of this past off-season. He signed a one-year deal worth only $3 million. The longer he prolongs this hot streak, the larger his paychecks next summer will grow.
-Richard Heaton
