Should we give Shohei Ohtani the Cy Young, too?
Barring an extremely unexpected turn of events, the Los Angeles Angels’ Shohei Ohtani is going to win the 2021 American League MVP award. His production as a DH and part time outfielder alone would put him in the discussion, as he’s been one of the best offensive players in baseball this season. When his contributions as a starting pitcher are factored in, the “Who is going to win the AL MVP?” discussion is a very brief one.
Speaking of unexpected, Ohtani’s performance as a starting pitcher hasn’t just been a nudge to get him over the likely MVP hump, it’s been remarkable. So remarkable in fact, it begs the question, “Is Shohei Ohtani going to be the 2021 American League Cy Young award winner?” Amazingly, he’s a legitimate part of that discussion as well.
Consider, prior to this past Wednesday’s not-so-great start, among the 46 AL pitchers with a minimum of 100 innings pitched, Ohtani ranks in the top five in WAR, FIP, K%, ERA+, xERA and opponents’ OPS+. Additionally, he’s in the top 10 in WHIP, K%-BB%, and xFIP.
If you happen to be a fan who prefers more traditional, old school statistics – or more importantly to this discussion, if you think BBWAA voters are – Ohtani has impressed in that regard as well. He currently holds the best won-loss percentage in the AL with an 8-1 record. That’s for a sub .500 team, and he’s currently sixth in the league in ERA. Whichever measuring sticks you like to use, it would be hard to argue that Ohtani hasn’t been one of the best five or so pitchers in the AL so far this season.
Of course, “one of the best” is a long way from “Cy Young award winner”. Ohtani has thrown 105 innings thus far in 2021, which is a pretty good number, but he’ll likely fall short of qualifying for rate statistics at that pace. Additionally, even though BBWAA voters have generally relaxed their reliance on older, more traditional statistics for evaluation, Blake Snell’s 180.2 IP in 2018 is the lowest ever for a Cy Young award-winning starting pitcher in a non-shortened season.
Another obstacle impeding Ohtani’s Cy Young chances is that there isn’t a dearth of American League pitchers in the midst of great seasons. The Yankees’ Gerrit Cole, the White Sox’ Carlos Rodón and Blue Jays’ Robbie Ray are on most of the same leaderboards mentioned above and are on a few others that Ohtani is not. Chicago’s Lance Lynn is similarly on every leaderboard and has thrown 30 more innings than Ohtani.
Of course, we need to acknowledge the elephant in the room: There is still much baseball to be played in the 2021 season. Most starting pitchers are going to have seven or eight more starts this season before this discussion can take place in earnest. The reason this is important to emphasize with regards to Ohtani, is that he’s not only been great – but he’s been improving. If you’re looking for a reason to be optimistic about Shohei’s chances of winning Cy Young hardware, that is something upon which you can hang your hat.
As great as Ohtani’s numbers and league ranks are, the one thing that’s dragged them down this season (if dragging down numbers to “great” is possible) was less than stellar command. From April through June, Ohtani posted a 13.6% walk rate, which was the highest in the AL at that point among 71 pitchers who had thrown at least 50 innings. Since July 1st, among 47 AL pitchers who have thrown a minimum of 40 innings, Ohtani’s walk rate has been 2.7% – tied for lowest in the league.
In case you were wondering if he found his command and lowered his walk rate by merely throwing the ball down the middle of the zone, check these numbers:
- ERA April through June: 3.60
- ERA July through August: 2.20
Just when we think there can’t be anything crazier about the season “Showtime” is having, we learn he’s actually getting better.
If the season ended today, it’s unlikely Ohtani would win the Cy Young award. Given his relatively low innings total compared to some of the other pitchers having great seasons, it would be hard to deny one of them the award. That said, the fact that he has markedly improved is something that should not only keep him in the discussion over the next five weeks, but should boost his standing in the eyes of fans and voters. Especially when we consider that the improvement in walk rate has increased his innings pitched per start (5 innings per start through June, 6.2 innings per start since) which should reduce criticisms of not enough innings pitched.
Whatever the remainder of the 2021 bring us, Shohei Ohtani has provided us all with something special to behold. It’s not an exaggeration to say his combination and levels of excellence in both the batter’s box and the pitcher’s mound is something none of us have seen before, because it’s never been done before. What Babe Ruth did in 1918 and 1919 was special, but it wasn’t what Ohtani is currently doing in several regards. Shohei Ohtani is a good reminder that as much as we fans love to debate and rant about relatively insignificant aspects of the game, it’s important to simply enjoy a special season from a special player as it unfolds in front of us.
