Looking Back on Brandon Belt’s Season
Among Giants fans, Brandon Belt has been a pretty polarizing figure over the last decade. His performance sparked something called the “Belt Wars” among the fanbase, wherein two separate factions formed. One side appreciated Belt for the above-average player that he was, and the other side felt that he was a disappointment who never fully lived up to his power-hitting potential. While it always seemed irrational to direct hate Belt’s way just because he’s not a superstar, both sides at least offered a few good points in their lively debates over his value.
With Belt’s massive leap forward this year, though, it would seem that his detractors have no choice but to wave the white flag.
Consider that before this season, Belt had never slugged more than 18 homers in a single year. In his first two months of this season, Belt looked like he was on pace to eclipse that record – 11 homers in 55 games, extrapolated over a full season would be 30 if he managed to stay healthy enough to appear in 150 contests. His 137 wRC+ (and .875 OPS) was very good, and coupled with his ability to pick it at the first base bag, he was already a phenomenal player in a giraffe-shaped package. Somehow, though, the enemy contingent of the Belt Wars still hadn’t seen enough. He still strikes out too often, they said. He still doesn’t hit enough homers, they whined.
Then, Belt hurt his knee. Just like at so many other points in his career, as soon as he built positive momentum for a sustained period of time, there was a setback. He managed to get through 2020 relatively unscathed by the bad luck bug, setting new career-highs in slugging percentage, OPS and wRC+, but then he only had to get through a 60-game season. This knee injury robbed Belt of over a month’s worth of at-bats and effectively cut his 2021 season into a tale of two halves. We know he was good in that first half, but after such a long time off from injury, a lot of players don’t quite look the same until they have an offseason to get fully healthy and back on track. It held true here, too – Belt didn’t look the same when he came back.
He was better. SO much better. From a guy who never had more than 18 homers in a full season, he hit 18 in 42 games after his activation from the IL on August 5th. His slash line over that time: .297/.394/.690 (183 wRC+). Even Belt’s most ardent supporters couldn’t have supposed they’d see this kind of a power surge from him after his 33rd birthday. Over his 97 games this year, his 11.2 AB/HR ratio would be the best in baseball – just narrowly edging out Fernando Tatis Jr.’s 11.3 AB/HR – if he had enough plate appearances to qualify.
Of course, even with a few games still left to play in this regular season, Belt’s games played total will not increase. He will not qualify for the AB/HR leader title, nor will he be able to help his team in the NLDS or the NLCS. He won’t be able to do these things because he broke his thumb, and he broke it while bunting. You read that right – the most prolific home run hitter in the majors (on a rate basis) broke his thumb while trying to lay down a bunt. It would be hilarious if it weren’t so gosh darn sad. Just the Giants’ luck, too – he was one big-fly away from becoming their first 30-homer hitter since Barry Bonds.
Belt’s season is likely over barring a hypothetical World Series run, and with it, his time as a Giant may have also run its course. He’ll be a free agent this offseason, and even though he must be profoundly disappointed with how his season ended, it has still been an excellent platform year as he looks to earn himself a multi-year contract this winter. He’s had roughly a full season’s worth of plate appearances (560) dating back to the start of 2020, and his 163 wRC+ in that span makes him the third-best hitter in all of baseball (trailing only Juan Soto and Bryce Harper) over the last two years. That’s not counting Mike Trout, who has played in even fewer games than Belt since 2020, but you get the idea. Belt hasn’t merely been a good player, and he’s not a guy who just got hot for a month. He has a whole new approach when he steps up to the plate, and it’s done wonders for him.
Aside from his contributions on the field, he’s really embraced his veteran status and come into his own as a team leader. Do the Giants win a franchise record number of games without their Captain, the guy who’s been a lightning rod for the clubhouse during their improbable September run, carrying the offense at times? Probably not. These Zaidi-built Giants are a deep squad with more than just one or two key contributors, but there’s no point in denying that Belt has been the heart and soul of this club all year long.
Belt’s agent will be fielding calls from several interested parties in the coming months, and Zaidi will have to make a decision whether or not to commit to another mid-30’s face of the franchise after already extending Brandon Crawford and very likely bringing back Buster Posey. Once he’s able to test the market, it’s very plausible that the Tigers will have interest in a veteran like Belt. In that scenario, Belt would likely share 1B/DH duties with Spencer Torkelson once Miguel Cabrera hangs up his cleats. The Red Sox could also use a righty-masher at first if they decide they’d rather have Kyle Schwarber play elsewhere or DH. Then, there’s the Braves and Freddie Freeman’s potential replacement, who still may be Freddie Freeman. Belt’s home state Rangers could have some interest too if they plan on breaking out of their rebuild soon. In the end, there are a lot of possibilities but only one favorite – retiring as a Giant just seems like the best-case scenario for both player and team.
-Michael Swinehart
