Looking Back at Players With Similar Pre-Season ADPs—Outfielders
Prior to the MLB season, I wrote a series of articles comparing players who were valued similarly in the fantasy baseball world heading into the 2021 season. My belief was that baseball fans would be influenced by recency bias, causing them to overvalue the results of the 2020 “COVID-19” season when they should have been more skeptical of outlier performances in that 60-game sample.
For each position group, I looked at players with a ton of helium, meaning they were valued much higher than in previous years, and “Anvil” guys, meaning they were less valued than they had been previously. At the end of each article, I compared players with similar 2021 Average Draft Positions (ADP) who had widely different ADPs in previous years. Now that the 2021 regular season is complete, we can look back to see how this played out.
Kyle Lewis versus Ramon Laureano versus Joey Gallo
What I wrote then:
Kyle Lewis—145 ADP in 2021 (432 ADP in 2020)
Ramón Laureano—143 ADP in 2021 (82 ADP in 2020)
Joey Gallo—148 ADP in 2021 (86 ADP in 2020)
ATC Projections:
Kyle Lewis: 610 PA, 76 R, 23 HR, 73 RBI, 8 SB, .242/.322/.416, .320 wOBA
Ramon Laureano: 594 PA, 83 R, 22 HR, 71 RBI, 12 SB, .248/.326/.434, .328 wOBA
Joey Gallo:597 PA, 83 R, 39 HR, 90 RBI, 5 SB, .214/.333/.495, .351wOBA
My take: Lewis has moved up 287 spots since last year, while Laureano has moved down 61 spots and Gallo has dropped 62 spots. Now, all three outfielders have an ADP within five picks of each other. For me, Lewis is still a big risk, so give me Gallo first and Laureano second among this group.
How it turned out:
Using NFBC roster requirements (15 teams, 14 hitters, 9 pitchers, 7 bench, 1000 IP minimum), I determined each player’s dollar value using the FanGraphs Auction Calculator for 2021. That is shown below, along with where that player ranked at their position and where they ranked overall.
Kyle Lewis: $10, 185th-ranked OF (759th player overall)
Ramón Laureano: $3, 82nd-ranked OF (295th player overall)
Joey Gallo: $12, 37th-ranked OF (121st player overall)
2021 Statistics:
Lewis:147 PA, 15 R,5 HR, 11 RBI, 2 SB, .246/.333/.392, .320 wOBA
Laureano: 378 PA, 43 R, 14 HR, 39 RBI, 12 SB, .246/.317/.443, .328 wOBA
Gallo: 616 PA, 90 R, 38 HR, 77 RBI, 6 SB, .199/.351/.458, .348 wOBA
My pre-season preference among these three outfielders was Gallo over Laureano over Lewis, which is the order in which they finished value-wise. I was worried about Lewis because he had such a bad second half during the 2020 season in which he won the AL Rookie of the Year Award. He hit .368/.456/.585 in the first half (essentially a little more than a month) and .150/.265/.280 in the second half (also about a month). This year, he was limited by injuries, while also not hitting for the power he had previously.
Laureano likely would have challenged Gallo had he not been suspended for 80 games in August after testing positive for nandrolone. Before that, he had surprisingly stolen 12 bases (eight of them in April) and had 14 dingers. A 20-HR/15-SB season was within reach. Unfortunately, so was nandrolone.
Gallo was the most valuable of these three outfielders taken around the same time in pre-season drafts, but his season took a big hit with the trade from the Rangers to the Yankees. Before the trade, Gallo hit .223/.379/.490, with 25 homers and six steals in 95 games. After the trade, he hit .160/.303/.404, with 13 homers and zero steals in 58 games.
Teoscar Hernández versus Nick Castellanos
What I wrote then:
Teoscar Hernández—81 ADP in 2021 (333 ADP in 2020)
Nick Castellanos—81 ADP in 2021 (92 ADP in 2020)
ATC Projections:
Teoscar Hernández: 567 PA, 77 R, 31 HR, 82 RBI, 11 SB, .245/.311/.483, .336 wOBA
Nick Castellanos: 646 PA, 93 R, 30 HR, 89 RBI, 2 SB, .267/.327/.499, .349 wOBA
My take: Hernández is the shiny new toy thanks to his breakout 2020 season (in 50 games), but Castellanos has a much longer track record. I’m also skeptical that Hernández will steal 11 bases this year when his career-high is six and he’s been successful just 59 percent of the time in his career (17-for-29). I’d rather cast my line with Nick.
How it turned out:
Teoscar Hernández: $30, 2nd -ranked OF (11th player overall)
Nick Castellanos: $27, 7th-ranked OF (23rd player overall)
2021 Statistics:
Hernández: 595 PA, 92 R, 32 HR, 116 RBI, 12 SB, .296/.346/.524, .369 wOBA
Castellanos:585 PA, 95 R, 34 HR, 100 RBI, 3 SB, .309/.362/.576, .391 wOBA
It turns out I was wrong to choose Castellanos over Hernández, but both players were great values at their ADPs and Castellanos did miss a few weeks in late July with a micro-fracture of his right wrist. In the real world, Castellanos was the better hitter, but Hernández nearly equaled Castellanos in runs, homers, and average, while driving in 16 more runs and stealing nine more bases. That matters in fantasy baseball, which made Hernández one of the best all-around values in the game, right there with Juan Soto, Bryce Harper, and Starling Marte.
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. versus Austin Meadows
What I wrote then:
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.—86 ADP in 2021 (151 ADP in 2020)
Austin Meadows—85 ADP in 2021 (41 ADP in 2020)
ATC Projections:
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.: 595 PA, 77 R, 28 HR, 86 RBI, 8 SB, .274/.318/.482, .339 wOBA
Austin Meadows: 578 PA, 78 R, 25 HR, 76 RBI, 11 SB, .259/.331/.476, .343 wOBA
My take: Gurriel has jumped from ADP 151 to 86, while Meadows has dropped from ADP 41 to 85. I like both players, but I like Meadows a little bit more.
How it turned out:
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.:$12, 40th-ranked OF (128h player overall)
Austin Meadows: $14, 33rd-ranked OF (95th player overall)
2021 Statistics:
Gurriel Jr.: 541 PA, 62 R, 21 HR, 84 RBI, 1 SB, .276/.319/.466, .333 wOBA
Meadows: 591 PA, 79 R, 27 HR, 106 RBI, 4 SB, .234/.315/.458, .327 wOBA
Gurriel Jr. came up short on his projected plate appearance and only stole one base when he was projected to steal eight. Meadows had 13 more plate appearances than projected and really came through in the RBI department, while falling well short of the 12 steals expected from him. In the pre-season, I wrote that I liked both players, but liked Meadows a little more. As it turns out, neither player finished as high as their ADP, but Meadows was a little more valuable, so I’ll put this one in the plus column.
