Prior to the MLB season, I wrote a series of articles comparing players who were valued similarly in the fantasy baseball world heading into the 2021 season. My belief was that baseball fans would be influenced by recency bias, causing them to overvalue the results of the 2020 “COVID-19” season when they should have been more skeptical of outlier performances in that 60-game sample.
For each position group, I looked at players with a ton of helium, meaning they were valued much higher than in previous years, and “Anvil” guys, meaning they were less valued than they had been previously. At the end of each article, I compared players with similar 2021 Average Draft Positions (ADP) who had widely different ADPs in previous years. Now that the 2021 regular season is complete, we can look back to see how this played out.
Pitchers (link to original article)
Chris Paddack versus Ian Anderson
What I wrote then:
Chris Paddack—101 ADP in 2021 (55 ADP in 2020)
Ian Anderson—102 ADP in 2021 (642 ADP in 2020)
ATC Projections:
Chris Paddack: 137 IP, 141 K, 3.79 ERA, 3.82 FIP, 1.12 WHIP
Ian Anderson: 143 IP, 158 K, 3.69 ERA, 3.81 FIP, 1.27 WHIP
My take: After last season, these two pitchers converged around an ADP of 101/102 from very different places. Paddack was the Helium Guy last year. This year, it’s Anderson. I like both pitchers, but lean Paddack.
How it turned out:
Using NFBC roster requirements (15 teams, 14 hitters, 9 pitchers, 7 bench, 1000 IP minimum), I determined each player’s dollar value using the FanGraphs Auction Calculator for 2021. That is shown below, along with where that player ranked at their position and where they ranked overall.
Chris Paddack: -$2, 122nd-ranked SP (452nd player overall)
Ian Anderson: $6, 66th-ranked SP (232nd player overall)
2021 Statistics:
Chris Paddack: 108.3 IP, 7 W, 99 K, 5.07 ERA, 3.77 FIP, 1.26 WHIP
Ian Anderson: 128.3 IP, 9 W, 124 K, 3.58 ERA, 4.12 FIP, 1.23 WHIP
This was a miss for me and for the fantasy managers who coalesced around an ADP of 101/102 for these two pitchers. Neither Paddack nor Anderson threw enough innings to reach the value an ADP around 100 should produce. Anderson was significantly better, though, with a 3.58 ERA and 1.23 WHIP versus the 5.07 ERA and 1.26 WHIP of Paddack.
Zack Wheeler versus Zack Greinke
What I wrote then:
Zack Wheeler—105 ADP in 2021 (126 ADP in 2020)
Zack Greinke—106 ADP in 2021 (65 ADP in 2020)
ATC Projections:
Zack Wheeler: 184 IP, 172 K, 3.81 ERA, 3.68 FIP, 1.22 WHIP
Zack Greinke: 183 IP, 169 K, 3.92 ERA, 3.91 FIP, 1.16 WHIP
My take: In this battle of Zacks, I’ll take the veteran Greinke despite his age and 87 mph fastball. He still has impeccable control and knows how to pitch, like a late-career Greg Maddux.
How it turned out:
Zack Wheeler: $28, 3rd-ranked SP (15th player overall)
Zack Greinke: $5, 64th-ranked SP (261st player overall)
2021 Statistics:
Zack Wheeler: 213.3 IP, 14 W, 247 K, 2.78 ERA, 2.59 FIP, 1.01 WHIP
Zack Greinke: 171.0 IP, 11 W, 120 K, 4.16 ERA, 4.71 FIP, 1.17 WHIP
This was my biggest miss of them all. Wheeler’s ADP improved by 21 spots after the 2020 season, while Greinke was going 41 spots later than the previous year. I thought they would be fairly close in value, with Greinke being a little better. I was just flat-out wrong. Wheeler set career-bests in innings pitched, wins, strikeouts, ERA, and WHIP. His strikeout rate jumped from 18.4% to 29.1% and his 213.3 innings led all pitchers. That innings total, combined with a 2.78 ERA, may earn him the NL Cy Young Award.
Zack Greinke, on the other hand, may be finally showing signs of age-related decline. The 37-year-old pitcher had his second straight season with an ERA over 4.00. He still won 11 games and had a solid 1.17 WHIP, but his 17.2 percent strikeout rate ranked 35th out of the 39 pitchers who qualified for the ERA title and only two qualified starting pitchers had a lower average fastball velocity (Dallas Keuchel and Kyle Hendricks). That being said, Adam Wainwright, who is two years older than Greinke, was just above Grienke on the fastball velocity list and had a terrific season.
Charlie Morton versus Dylan Bundy
What I wrote then:
Charlie Morton—119 ADP in 2021 (58 ADP in 2020)
Dylan Bundy—122 ADP in 2021 (246 ADP in 2020)
ATC Projection:
Charlie Morton: 151 IP, 166 K, 3.73 ERA, 3.85 FIP, 1.20 WHIP
Dylan Bundy: 170 IP, 173 K, 4.32 ERA, 4.44 FIP, 1.25 WHIP
My take: More than any other “This Guy or That Guy” in this series, this is a slam dunk for me. I would take Morton every day of the week and twice on Sunday. I just think he’s a better pitcher and Bundy’s 20-ish more innings pitched just means he’ll hurt you even more in ERA than he would if he only pitched 150 innings.
How it turned out:
Charlie Morton: $21, 13th-ranked SP (49th player overall)
Dylan Bundy: -$10, 187th-ranked SP (768th player overall)
2021 Statistics:
Charlie Morton: 185.7 IP, 14 W, 216 K, 3.34 ERA, 3.17 FIP, 1.04 WHIP
Dylan Bundy: 90.7 IP, 2 W, 84 K, 6.06 ERA, 5.51 FIP, 1.36 WHIP
This was my best pick of them all. I felt Morton’s history of productive pitching going back to the 2017 season was a better indicator of his abilities than his inflated 4.74 ERA in 2020, when he also had a 3.45 FIP. That 4.74 ERA was driven at least in part by a .355 BABIP, which had not been an issue for Morton in the previous three years. I was all in for a strong bounce back, but he exceeded even my high expectations by pitching 185.7 very effective innings at the age of 37. He outperformed his ADP by 70 spots.
As for Dylan Bundy, I didn’t expect him to be as good as Morton, but I also didn’t think he would be as bad as he was this season, with that 6.06 ERA. His FIP (5.51) wasn’t much better, but his xFIP (4.66) was more in line with his xFIPs from 2016 to 2019. When you look at his entire career, you see a guy with an ERA above 4.00 every year except for the shortened 2020 season that prompted fantasy players to overdraft him this spring.
Sixto Sánchez versus Patrick Corbin versus Pablo López
What I wrote then:
Sixto Sánchez—131 ADP in 2021 (603ADP in 2020)
Patrick Corbin—133 ADP in 2021 (47 ADP in 2020)
Pablo López—133 ADP in 2021 (371 ADP in 2020)
ATC Projections:
Sixto Sánchez: 142 IP, 128 K, 3.76 ERA, 3.70 FIP, 1.23 WHIP
Patrick Corbin: 184 IP, 192 K, 3.91 ERA, 3.90 FIP, 1.27 WHIP
Pablo López: 160 IP, 152 K, 3.80 ERA, 3.69 FIP, 1.22 WHIP
My take: Two Helium Guys on the Marlins and an Anvil Guy on the Nationals are all very close in ADP. I think they’re all fine in this spot. The next starting pitcher behind them in ADP is Kevin Gausman and I believe all three should be ahead of him. I think Sánchez is the most talented of these three, but will pitch the fewest innings, so I would put him third. Corbin will pitch the most innings and get the most strikeouts, but likely with worse ratios. I’ll put him second. That leaves López as my favorite here.
How it turned out:
Sixto Sánchez: Did not pitch
Patrick Corbin: -$14, 203rd-ranked SP (899th player overall)
Pablo López: $7, 51st-ranked SP (215th player overall)
2021 Statistics:
Sixto Sánchez: Did not pitch
Patrick Corbin: 171.7 IP, 9 W, 143 K, 5.82 ERA, 5.41 FIP, 1.47 WHIP
Pablo López: 102.7 IP, 5 W, 115 K, 3.07 ERA, 3.29 FIP, 1.12 WHIP
I was correct to put López first in this group, but having Corbin and his 5.82 ERA and 1.47 WHIP second was not good even though Sánchez didn’t pitch at all. You’d rather have the DNP instead of taking that hit to the ratios that Corbin delivered. Of course, I also wrote that all three should be ahead of Kevin Gausman and that was as wrong as wrong can be.
Overall, I analyzed 16 groups (or trios) of players. I was correct by a large margin for eight of those comparisons and correct by a small margin on two others. I also missed by a small margin three times and missed big three times.
