Looking Back at Players With Similar Pre-Season ADPs—Catcher and 1B
Prior to the MLB season, I wrote a series of articles comparing players who were valued similarly in the fantasy baseball world heading into the 2021 season. My belief was that baseball fans would be influenced by recency bias, causing them to overvalue the results of the 2020 “COVID-19” season when they should have been more skeptical of outlier performances in that 60-game sample.
For each position group, I looked at players with a ton of helium, meaning they were valued much higher than in previous years, and “Anvil” guys, meaning they were less valued than they had been previously. At the end of each article, I compared players with similar 2021 Average Draft Positions (ADP) who had widely different ADPs in previous years. Now that the 2021 regular season is complete, we can look back to see how this played out.
Catchers (link to original article)
Yasmani Grandal versus Travis d’Arnaud
What I wrote in March:
Yasmani Grandal—128 ADP in 2021 (95 ADP in 2020)
Travis d’Arnaud—134 ADP in 2021 (243 ADP in 2020)
ATC Projections:
Yasmani Grandal: 516 PA, 67 R, 23 HR, 68 RBI, 2 SB, .232/.350/.438, .342 wOBA
Travis d’Arnaud: 436 PA, 53 R, 18 HR, 69 RBI, 1 SB, .264/.327/.453, .331 wOBA
My take: Heading into last season, there was a difference of 188 spots between Grandal at ADP 95 and d’Arnaud at ADP 243. Now they’re separated by six picks, which doesn’t make sense to me. I trust Grandal’s playing time projection more than d’Arnaud’s, for the reasons mentioned above. I also have more faith in Grandal continuing to be an above average hitter given his history than I have in d’Arnaud coming anywhere close to what he did during the shortened 2020 season.
How it turned out:
Using NFBC roster requirements (15 teams, 14 hitters, 9 pitchers, 7 bench, 1000 IP minimum), I determined each player’s dollar value using the FanGraphs Auction Calculator for 2021. That is shown below, along with where that player ranked at their position and where they ranked overall.
Yasmani Grandal: $13, 6th-ranked catcher (110th player overall)
Travis d’Arnaud: -$1, 40th– ranked catcher (425th player overall)
2021 Statistics:
Grandal: 375 PA, 60 R, 23 HR, 62 RBI, 0 SB, .240/.420/.520, .402 wOBA
d’Arnaud: 229 PA, 46 R, 7 HR, 26 RBI, 0 SB, .220/.284/.388, .291 wOBA
Both Grandal and d’Arnaud missed time with injuries, but when they were on the field there was no question that Grandal was the better player. In fact, because of the time he missed and his low batting average, it’s likely that Grandal’s season has been overlooked by many fans. In the fantasy baseball realm, Grandal was as valuable as Willie Adames, A.J. Pollock, and Willson Contreras. In the real world, using FanGraphs WAR, he was about as valuable as Corey Seager, Yordan Alvarez, and Joey Votto. Offensively, his .412 wOBA was sixth in baseball among the 262 hitters with 200 or more plate appearances. Travis d’Arnaud ranked 283rd, with a .291 wOBA.
Regarding d’Arnaud, when you consider his entire career you can see how much the shortened 2020 season was an outlier. The chart below shows his season-by-season wOBA. It’s also important to remember that d’Arnaud had a .411 BABIP in 2020, which was 118 points higher than in any previous season and well above his career mark (currently .278). The signs were there that he overperformed in 2020, yet he was still taken right around the same time in the draft as Grandal. Put one in the plus column for me.
Christian Vázquez versus Gary Sánchez
What I wrote in March:
Christian Vázquez—147 ADP in 2021 (194 ADP in 2020)
Gary Sánchez—147 ADP in 2021 (78 ADP in 2020)
ATC Projections:
Christian Vázquez: 465 PA, 54 R, 15 HR, 55 RBI, 6 SB, .261/.316/.422, .318 wOBA
Gary Sánchez: 408 PA, 51 R, 25 HR, 63 RBI, 0 SB, .216/.304/.468, .328 wOBA
My take: Who would have thought a few years ago that Christian Vázquez would be drafted around the same time as Gary Sánchez? This is a risk/reward pick here. If you’re the “go big or go home” type, take Sánchez for the chance he could hit 30-35 bombs again. I would take that risk.
How it turned out:
Christian Vázquez: $10, 11th-ranked catcher (154th player overall)
Gary Sánchez: $8, 15th– ranked catcher (193rd player overall)
2021 Statistics:
Vázquez: 498 PA, 51 R, 6 HR, 49 RBI, 8 SB, .258/.308/.352, .289 wOBA
Sánchez: 440 PA, 54 R, 23 HR, 54 RBI, 0 SB, .204/.307/.423, .314 wOBA
In the pre-season, I wrote that I would take the risk on Sánchez despite his brutal 2020 season (.147/.253/.365). His projection suggested a return to relevance and even though he didn’t get back to hitting 30-35 homers, he was still about a league average hitter (99 wRC+). In 2021, Sánchez had many more home runs and slightly more runs scored and RBI than Vázquez, but eight fewer steals and a much lower batting average.
The overall result, based on the Auction Calculator, was Vázquez being worth a couple dollars more and finishing four spots higher in the catcher position rankings. It turns out I was wrong to prefer Sánchez over Vázquez based on their end-of-year value but they weren’t too far off in value. Also, their production was so dissimilar that roster construction plays a part. For a team that already has batting average and steals, the 17-dinger advantage for Sánchez could make him the preferable player. Still, this is a small miss for me.
First Base (link to original article)
Josh Bell versus Ryan Mountcastle
What I wrote then:
Josh Bell—145 ADP in 2021 (94 ADP in 2020)
Ryan Mountcastle—150 ADP in 2021 (467 ADP in 2020)
ATC Projections:
Josh Bell: 592 PA, 79 R, 28 HR, 89 RBI, 1 SB, .260/.346/.483, .350 wOBA
Ryan Mountcastle: 544 PA, 62 R, 20 HR, 73 RBI, 2 SB, .277/.320/.458, .331 wOBA
My take: Bell is a veteran coming off a down season, while Mountcastle is the shiny, new toy. Bell has performed well over multiple full major league seasons, while Mountcastle has 140 career plate appearances with a hard-to-believe .398 BABIP. It may be boring, but I’ll take the veteran.
How it turned out:
Josh Bell: $13, 17th-ranked 1B (116th player overall)
Ryan Mountcastle: $16, 12th– ranked 1B (80th player overall)
2021 Statistics:
Bell: 568 PA, 75 R, 27 HR, 88 RBI, 0 SB, .261/.347/.476, .352 wOBA
Mountcastle: 586 PA, 77 R, 33 HR, 89 RBI, 4 SB, .255/.309/.487, .335 wOBA
Another small miss for me. Bell bounced back from his ugly 2020 season, but not to the level of his career-best 2019 season. He essentially returned to the guy he was in 2017, which made him a fine value based on his pre-season ADP. Meanwhile, Mountcastle didn’t replicate his 2020 season, but was more valuable than Bell thanks mainly to his six more homers and four more steals.
Eric Hosmer versus Rhys Hoskins
What I wrote then:
Eric Hosmer—150 ADP in 2021 (231 ADP in 2020)
Rhys Hoskins—158 ADP in 2021 (117 ADP in 2020)
ATC Projections:
Eric Hosmer: 614 PA, 75 R, 22 HR, 87 RBI, 7 SB, .262/.318/.430, .319 wOBA
Rhys Hoskins: 583 PA, 83 R, 30 HR, 84 RBI, 3 SB, .239/.362/.483, .363 wOBA
My take: Hoskins has been a well-above average hitter every year of his career. Hosmer . . . has not. As long as Hoskins progresses with no major setbacks in spring training, I’m taking him over Hosmer every draft day of the week and twice on Sunday.
How it turned out:
Eric Hosmer: $6, 30th-ranked 1B (246h player overall)
Rhys Hoskins: $9, 22nd-ranked 1B (161st player overall)
2021 Statistics:
Hosmer: 565 PA, 53 R, 12 HR, 65 RBI, 5 SB, .269/.337/.395, .319 wOBA
Hoskins: 443 PA, 64 R, 27 HR, 71 RBI, 3 SB, .247/.334/.530, .364 wOBA
Even with 108 more plate appearances than Hoskins, Eric Hosmer was less valuable, with fewer runs, homers, and RBI. His batting average was higher, but he just didn’t provide the power or run production that you want from someone with the 150 ADP he had in the preseason. Hoskins, on the other hand, was having a strong season before an injury in August cut it short and he still more than doubled Hosmer’s home run total. Next up will be second base, shortstop, and third base.
