Is the NL Central the Most Easily Predictable Division in the MLB?
There are going to be some absolute dogfights in divisions across Major League Baseball in the 2022 season. Four teams had 90+ wins in the AL East last season, Minnesota and Detroit have loaded up to challenge Chicago in the Central, and Seattle and the Angels have the potential to end Houston’s reign of terror in the West.
The latest MLB Vegas odds hint at a runaway in the West for the Dodgers, but San Diego has brought on managerial experience and it was San Francisco that won the division last year with 107 wins. The NL East seems like a coin flip between the Braves, Mets, and Phillies. That leaves one division with a single clear-cut winner, and that’s Milwaukee at -130 to win the Central.
Sure there are higher odds out there in MLB futures, but none seem to be as much of a sure thing as the Brewers winning the NL Central. Even -130 could look like a gift price as soon as the All-Star break, not just because Milwaukee has one of the better pitching staffs in the majors, but because of this competition across the rest of the division:
St. Louis Cardinals +190
The only real challenge the Brewers are likely to face within the division is from the Cardinals, who were 90-72 last year finishing 5 back from Milwaukee for 1st place. The only reason St. Louis was even that close though is because they were absolutely lights out last September, putting together a 17-game win streak at one point en route to a 22-7 record in the month.
St. Louis picked up Steven Matz in the offseason to bolster their rotation and also still have power in the lineup from Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt. Does anybody really expect 35-year-old greenhorn Oliver Marmol to get the most out of this team in his first-ever managerial job?
Chicago Cubs +1000
The Cubs purged at the trade deadline last season, shipping off the core of their 2016 World Series Championship including Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, and Javy Baez among others. The Cubs finished 24 games out of 1st place last season and the additions of Marcus Stroman and Japanese slugger Seiya Suzuki are nowhere near big enough moves to make up that ground.
Cincinnati Reds +1100
The Reds finished above .500 at 83-79 last year, but it would take a minor miracle to repeat that this season. Cincinnati had a lot of turnover in the offseason and not in the good way. Jesse Winker and Eugenio Suarez are off to Seattle in a trade and Nick Castellanos went to Philadelphia via free agency so combined that’s 89 home runs out the door. Cincinnati also traded pitcher Sonny Gray to the Twins leaving their pitching rotation a bit short. The Reds O/U for total wins in 2022 is 74.5.
Pittsburgh Pirates +5000
It goes without saying that Pittsburgh won’t contend in the NL Central this year, coming off a 101 loss season and with a betting win total of just 65.5 this year. Get your programs out when watching the Bucs this season.
