Alek Manoah: The Secret Ace
If I were to ask what one pictures when they think of the Toronto Blue Jays, the first thing that comes to mind would probably be their stellar offense or just Vladimir Guerrero Jr in general. If the question was narrowed down to only pitching, starters Kevin Gausman or Hyun-Jin Ryu or Jose Berrios or closer Jordan Romano would be next. Alek Manoah would be a secondary thought. Yet, he may be one of the most valuable players on the entire roster.
Drafted out of West Virginia University in the first round by the Blue Jays in 2019, Manoah was on a fast track to the majors. He immediately went to their A- Club, where he had a 2.48 FIP and a 39.7 K% through 17 innings pitched. The future looked bright – until the devastating COVID-19 Pandemic hit. With no Minor League baseball played, many players saw their skill level plateau. Alek was not one of those players. After impressing trainers, Manoah immediately made the jump to AAA in the 2021 season. In 18 innings pitched, he dazzled. He produced a 0.50 ERA, 2.25 FIP, 40.9 K%, and a .119 BAA, leading the International League East Division in many categories. The Toronto front office, which was struggling with pitching at the time, decided to give the prospect a chance in late May.
Now on the Major League roster, he made an immediate impact. Manoah managed to play and start in 20 games, covering 111.2 innings. Manoah’s minor league performance translated just fine. Holding a 9-2 record, he managed a 3.80 FIP, 27.2 K%, and 8.7 BB%. On top of that, he produced 2 fWAR, shattering expectations. While these numbers are fantastic, I’d argue that Manoah’s brilliance comes in the form of his strategy and statcast readings. Pitching as if he was an artist with a brush, Alek’s ability to mix his four-pitch repertoire along with great control made him someone to fear.
While many modern-day Aces relying upon a hard fastball to blow by their opponents, Manoah looks more finesse oriented by comparison. His average four-seam speed sits around 93.7 MPH in 2021, or the 50th percentile. The pitch had 15.4 inches of drop (slightly below-average) teamed with a decent bit of spin, making it sometimes hard to differentiate between his offspeed action.
His slider, which he throws often, is what I would consider his “moneymaker.” The slider had a 37% whiff rate, along with a wOBA of .250. By some measures, it even underperformed – his xwOBA on the pitch was .238. Manoah’s talent for this pitch is very special – it managed to break 15.5 inches horizontally, or roughly 71% above the major league average. Part of the specialty of this tool deals with not only its ability to goad whiffs, but also the weak contact it elicits. Hitters slugged .293 (.270 expected) and had a 23.6% Hard Hit rate when they saw it, proving that it’s one of the most effective sliders in all of baseball. Despite only coming in at 81.1 MPH, hitters were baffled.
Adding value at a very high pace in 2021, Alek Manoah looks to be the best Toronto Blue Jays pitcher in 2022. He faces fierce competition – former All-Star Kevin Gausman signed a deal with Toronto worth $110 million over 5 years. Manoah is only in his sophomore season, while Gausman is entering his 10th year in the majors. As 2022 gets underway, the two are in a race to watch. Here is how they are stacking up thus far:
Gausman is currently in the lead by a wide margin in fWAR produced, yet Manoah is doing a better job of prompting groundball contact. Both have similar fastball velocities, although, that should be taken with little consideration in evaluating these two. Gausman’s FIP beats out Manoah by a good amount, while the same thing can be said in the adverse about ERA. The underlying StatCast metrics for both players vary from last year by a bit, but we’re not even 1/10th of of the way through the season yet. Small sample sizes lead to high amounts of variation, making the numbers unreliable.
As things stand, the “Ace” of Toronto is unclear. Manoah has the potential to be that man – he would be the SP1 in many organizations right now. He is a current Cy Young contender. His odds to win are listed at +1800. Fans who want to take advantage of these odds can take a look at some of the new user promos for Caesars Sportsbook before the odds change. If the bet doesn’t turn out in your favor, you’ll be reimbursed with credits to use for a future bet. The season is still young so expect Manoah’s odds to only get better. On the other hand, Gausman has undergone a transformative change in the past year. Somewhat reinventing himself with the Reds and Giants, he came in 6th Place in the NL Cy Young voting last year. Either way, Gausman and Manoah together look to be one of the strongest one-two punches in the AL.
While Manoah may not be the top dog yet, the future looks as if it will bear fruit. Alek’s fundamentals are rock solid, with a slight refinement of control adding to his ability. He is young – he has plenty of time to develop into a star. Aces seem to be getting older and older these days, making a longer path seem likely. If he can manage to stay healthy while still throwing his insane slider, Alek Manoah can go on to be not only the best pitcher in Toronto, but all of baseball.
Author’s Note:
I am so glad that I am able to continue sharing my thoughts and philosophies about the game with everyone! I believe Manoah to be one of the most criminally underrated pitchers in baseball right now, so sharing facts about his absurd talent seems is a great way for fans not to be surprised when they hear his name throughout the season. If you personally enjoyed my insight from this article, you can find more of my writing at thedrummeyangle.com.
