Where Carlos Correa Will Sign
The Carlos Correa Saga is the story of the 2022/2023 offseason. For a few days, he was a San Francisco Giant. They literally had him in the building, ready to officially announce the deal, then got cold feet at the altar due to an ankle injury from 2014. In the middle of the night after the canceled Giants press conference, he became a New York Met… except they haven’t officially put pen to paper either due to the same ankle problem.
Given that two different organizations seem to think his ankle is made of tissue paper, it’s worth reminding ourselves that he’s still a highly capable, athletic human being. Last season with the Twins, he slashed .291/.366/.467 with a 140 wRC+. He has 70 defensive runs saved over an eight-year career at the most agile position on the diamond. If his ankle was truly on the verge of implosion, it seems impossible that he’d have been able to produce the way he did.
Correa plans to play baseball somewhere in 2023 and beyond. Here are the possible destinations by the percentage of likelihood as well as the LOLMets rating of each outcome on the 20-80 scouting scale.
New York Mets
Likelihood: 51%
Since Correa agreed to terms with the Mets, there have been no public reports of him negotiating anywhere else. Even after the hiccups with his physical, it still seems most likely that he will come to New York to play third base. In fact, the club could even face a grievance if it falls through after owner Steve Cohen announced the deal. Correa certainly wants this ordeal to be over with, especially since his options dwindle if he returns to the open market. There’s a strong incentive for both sides to get this done.
So why is it only 51% likely to happen? Ask Sports Illustrated’s Pat Ragazzo:
That’s not too far off from Jon Heyman quoting a source that there’s a 55% likelihood of a deal. The longer the silence drags on, the more it seems inevitable that it’s going to fall through. Of course, not much happens in MLB between Christmas and New Year’s Day, which may be slowing things down artificially.
LOLMets: 40– At least they’ll have their man but in the goofiest way possible.
San Francisco Giants
Likelihood: 10%
Giants fans are frothing with rage after failing to sign Aaron Judge and then believing they had Correa, only to have him yanked away too. Other mid-tier free agents they’ve signed— Michael Conforto and Taylor Rogers— are simply known as “Not Correa.”
There’s bound to be some bad blood after the way everything fell apart, but in order to hate someone, you must also love them. They did come to an agreement in the first place after all. As this fiasco stretches on, it would be malpractice for GM Farhan Zaidi not to at least make a phone call to agent Scott Boras.
LOLMets: 60– If the Giants get him anyway, then the Mets will have just been a negotiations prop.
Minnesota Twins
Likelihood: 15%
Correa first became a free agent a year ago. Instead of returning to the Astros, who successfully replaced him with Jeremy Peña, he signed a three-year deal with the Twins with an opt-out after each season. He triggered that opt-out after just one year, and so here we are.
Back in October, the club expressed interest in bidding on his services once again. If the Mets contract goes to pot, another one-year deal could make sense. A lot of clubs have already spent their money this offseason, with no other big-name free agents remaining. A pillow contract would allow him to reset his free agency once more and try again next year. If so, why not return to the same organization?
LOLMets: 55– There would be mild vindication for the Mets if no other team offered him a long-term deal.
The Field
Likelihood: 20%
Throughout all of this, Correa remains one of the best baseball players in the world. If the Mets deal collapses, it could reignite a bidding war. As evidenced by so many other huge free-agent contracts, there’s a ton of money all over the sport right now. Theoretically, every club should be able to afford him, even the ones who cry poverty all the time.
Would the Red Sox get involved after losing Xander Bogaerts? How about the Dodgers who’ve seen several free agents walk away, including Trea Turner? The Orioles are an up-and-coming franchise that is currently run by his former Astros bosses. One can never rule out the Yankees in such matters. The Mariners would be a great fit as well. The everpresent mystery team lurks in the shadows, ready to pounce.
LOLMets: 60– This rating is highly dependent on which club signs him and the terms of the deal. Still, letting him get away would be some high-quality LOLMets.
Atlanta Braves
Likelihood: 100%
This would be the most perfect way to troll agonized Mets fans. It’s too delightfully cruel not to happen. Losing him will hurt twice as much when he pivots to their biggest rival.
After failing to sign Dansby Swanson, shortstop is one of the Braves’ few apparently lineup holes, so the glove fits. Practically everyone else on their roster is locked up long-term on an extremely team-friendly contract. Correa will probably give Atlanta a discount because it just seems like everyone else does. He’ll sign for six years, $73 million just like Sean Murphy. Would that contract make sense for Correa at all? Of course not, except as an extreme Nelson Muntzing of the Mets.
LOLMets: 80– Haha.
-Daniel R. Epstein
