One of the big takeaways from the first few days of the 2023 season was the increase in the number of stolen bases across baseball. In the 15 games played on Opening Day, there were 21 steals with just two players caught stealing. Eighteen different players stole at least one base. Three of those eighteen stole a pair of bases.
A few days of games isn’t enough to make any definitive declarations, but all signs point to there being significantly more stolen bases this season then in recent years. Tom Tango suggested an over/under of steals increasing by 40 percent from last season. There were 35 games played through Saturday, April 1, and players had racked up 49 steals against 7 times caught stealing. That comes out to 1.6 steal attempts per game with an 88 percent success rate. Compare that to the first three days of 2022, when there were 17 steals and 9 times caught stealing in 34 games. That comes out to 0.8 steals per game with a success rate of 65 percent.
Here are some relevant numbers comparing the first few days of this season to last season:
2023: 35 G, 2650 PA, 49 SB, 7 CS, 88%, .248/.327/.392, .310 BABIP, 9.7% BB, 24.2% K
2022: 34 G, 2493 PA, 17 SB, 9 CS, 65%, .223/.302/.354, .272 BABIP, 8.9% BB, 23.5% K
Along with the increase in steals, there’s been a big jump in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play).
This is all by design. Major League Baseball put rules in place that should lead to a higher BABIP and encourage base stealing. Specifically, shift restrictions should lead to a higher BABIP and the combination of bigger bases, a pitch clock, and the limit on pitcher disengagements will help put the game in motion.
The bigger bases will play a factor, as that could make the difference between a player being thrown out by a couple inches or being safe. We’ve seen many times over the years when a player is safe or out by the narrowest of margins. Going forward, more of those bang-bang plays will go to the runner thanks to the bigger bases.
The pitch clock and the rule on pitcher disengagements will play a bigger role than the bigger bases. We saw an example right off the bat in one of the first games of the year between Atlanta and Washington on Opening Day. In the top of the first inning, Atlanta’s Ronald Acuña Jr. singled to right field off Patrick Corbin. On a 1-2 count, Acuña drew a throw to first, then another. At this point, because of the rule limiting pitcher disengagements, Acuña knew Corbin would be unlikely to throw over again because if he did and was unsuccessful in completing the pick-off, Acuña would be awarded second base. Acuña went on the next pitch, but slipped and had to retreat to first. Two pitches later, he stole second.
All of this leads us to J.T. Realmuto, a bit of a Unicorn at Catcher. A few hours after Acuna’s fun trip around the bases in the nation’s capital, Philadelphia catcher J.T. Realmuto doubled in the top of the third inning in Texas. He promptly stole third base for his first steal of the season. Realmuto is an anomaly as a catcher who steals bases. He stole 21 last season, which was by far the most steals by a player who played at least 60 percent of his games at the position. Next on the list was Washington’s Keibert Ruiz, with six steals. Daulton Varsho stole 16 bases, but he made just 18 starts at catcher and 103 in the outfield, so he was more of a part-time catcher.
Realmuto’s 21 steals last year put him in select company. Since 1901, there have been just 13 players who stole 20 or more bases and played at least 60 percent of their games at catcher. These 13 players accomplished the feat 19 times. Six of these 20-steal seasons came pre-1920, in the Dead Ball Era, with Johnny Kling (1902, 1903) and Ray Schalk (1914, 1916) each doing it twice and Roger Bresnahan (1906) and Red Dooin (1908) doing it once. After Schalk in 1916, there was a six-decade gap until the next base-stealing catcher came around.
In 1978, John Stearns of the New York Mets stole 25 bases, breaking Johnny Kling’s National League record. At six-feet and 185-pounds, Stearns was sleek for a catcher. He had played defensive back for the Colorado Buffaloes and was drafted by the NFL’s Buffalo Bills, but chose to play baseball instead. In addition to his 25 steals, Stearns hit for some power, launching 15 homers that year. In five of the six Dead Ball Era seasons in which a catcher stole 20 or more bases, that catcher hit exactly zero home runs. Only Johnny Kling in 1903 hit any round-trippers. He hit three that year. Stearns’ double-digit power/speed combination more closely resembles Realmuto’s abilities than those Dead Ball Era guys.
The 1980s and 1990s were the heyday of 20-steal catchers. John Wathan of the Kansas City Royals stole 36 bases in 1982, which is the post-1901 record for catchers. He then stole 28 more in 1983. In that 1982 season, Wathan stole 36 bases despite missing five weeks with an ankle injury. Without the injury, he could have been a 40-steal catcher. He also finished tied for sixth in steals in the American League, just five behind Paul Molitor, who had 250 more plate appearances than Wathan, and a single steal behind teammate Willie Wilson, had 120 more plate appearances than Wathan. Wilson was a prolific base-stealer who finished his career with 668 thefts and had four seasons with 50 or more. Of course, no one came close to the great Rickey Henderson, as that was his 130-steal season.
In 1987, Padres’ catcher Benito Santiago stole 21 bases. Milwaukee’s B.J. Surhoff matched him in 1988, as did Houston’s Craig Biggio in 1989. Biggio followed that up with 25 steals in 1990 and came close to making it three seasons in a row in 1991, but fell one steal short when he finished with 19. That was the last year he played catcher regularly. He shifted to second base in 1992 and later spent a few years playing in the outfield on his way to the Hall of Fame.
What Craig Biggio came so close to doing, Jason Kendall of the Pittsburgh Pirates was able to do. Kendall stole 26 bases in 1998, 22 in 1999, and 22 again in 2000, making him the only catcher since 1901 with three straight 20-steal seasons. He also had six other seasons with double-digit steals, including 12 in his final year at the age of 36. With 189 career steals, Kendall is second to Roger Bresnahan in steals by a catcher since 1901. Bresnahan has 212 but, it should be pointed out again, he played in the Dead Ball Era, when steals were much more ubiquitous.
Joining Kendall in the 20-steals-by-a-catcher club in 1999 was Ivan Rodriguez, who pilfered 25 bags while also hitting 35 homers, becoming the first catcher to hit 20 or more dingers and steal 20 or more bags. The last guy on this list, and most recent catcher before Realmuto to steal 20 bases, is Russell Martin, who snagged 21 pillows for the Dodgers in 2007. Martin almost did it again the following year, but came up two steals short.
With steals likely going up significantly all across baseball this season, J.T. Realmuto has a good chance for a second straight 20-steal season. In addition to his 21 steals last year, he also hit 22 home runs, joining the aforementioned Ivan Rodriguez as the only catchers to hit 20 and steal 20. Rodriguez never came close to doing it again, though, as the second-most steals he ever had in a season was 10, which means Realmuto could top him with another 20 homers and 20 steals this year. Heck, if he really gets going on the basepaths, maybe he could be the first 20-homers/30-steals catcher.
