The Aaron Judge Hall of Fame Question
Aaron Judge is the best baseball player in the world right now. With apologies to Shohei Ohtani, Mike Trout, and the other 7.9 billion humans, no one else can keep up with his torrid production since the start of the 2022 season. We are all witnessing greatness before our eyes, but is he spectacular enough to reach the Hall of Fame?
Jayson Stark of The Athletic released his current Hall of Fame tiers last week, putting Judge in the “On a Path” group. The article accomplished its goal—the same goal of nearly every Hall of Fame article—to start a debate between friends. Over texts, I stated why I believe he’s likely to make it to the Hall while a friend of mine argued why he isn’t. This could only be settled one of two ways: waiting 15 years until he’s on the ballot or with a dinky little Twitter poll.
Even though the majority of voters in this extremely thorough, scientific research method believe he will become a Hall of Famer, it’s closer than I realized. Let’s crack into the numbers to determine where he stands in relation to other right fielders.
The WAR Case Before the Judge
Comparing players of different eras with contrasting styles is always the biggest challenge with regard to the Hall of Fame. For example, Tony Gwynn and Mel Ott may have both played right field primarily, but that’s where their similarities end. The easiest way to rank players is using WAR and JAWS. JAWS is Jay Jaffe’s Hall of Fame metric which is found on Baseball-Reference that sets a Hall benchmark at each position. It has two components that are averaged out for each player: career WAR and WAR7, or the total of the player’s seven highest WAR seasons. However, even Jaffe would forewarn that WAR and JAWS are meant to be the start of a conversation—not the end of one.
There are 28 right fielders in the Hall of Fame. They average 71.1 WAR and 42.4 WAR7, which comes out to 56.7 JAWS. There are 14 right fielders with more than 56.7 JAWS, and they’re all in the Hall except for Shoeless Joe Jackson, who is permanently banned from MLB. The borderline range appears to be from 50-53 JAWS, which includes the following:
| Player | JAWS | HOF |
| Dwight Evans | 52.3 | No |
| Ichiro Suzuki | 51.9 | Not eligible yet |
| Reggie Smith | 51.6 | No |
| Sammy Sosa | 51.2 | No (steroids) |
| Dave Winfield | 51.0 | Yes |
| Bobby Abreu | 50.9 | No |
| Vladimir Guerrero | 50.3 | Yes |
Below them are a bunch of old-timey Hall of Famers who probably wouldn’t reach the threshold if their candidacy was reviewed through a modern lens, such as Enos Slaughter, Wee Willie Keeler, and Chuck Klein. Directly above that group is Mookie Betts, who isn’t finished adding to his JAWS total, and the 14 no-doubters (including Shoeless Joe). In other words, anyone who reaches the low-50s is a close call. The mid-50s or higher is a slam dunk.
Judge’s WAR7
The Yankees drafted Judge after his junior year at Fresno State. He didn’t even begin his minor-league career until just before his 22nd birthday, by which age many Hall-of-Famers had already debuted in the big leagues. He didn’t reach MLB until 2016 at the age of 24 and didn’t establish himself as a star until his age-25 season. Even though he’s 31 now, 2023 is just his eighth MLB campaign. One of them was his 27-game debut season in which he hit .179 with four home runs and another was the pandemic-shortened 2020. He has only played five full seasons so far, so his 39.5 WAR7 is actually higher than his 39.2 total WAR.
He only needs 2.9 more WAR to reach the HOF average 42.4 WAR7 at his position. This is almost a foregone conclusion. He already has 2.3 WAR this year and May isn’t even over. Barring a major injury, he will probably reach the WAR7 benchmark by the end of the season.
When he blasted 62 home runs and won the MVP in 2022, he accumulated 10.6 WAR. This year, he leads the AL with 17 home runs despite a brief IL stint, and he’s on pace for 6.7 WAR. 2024 should also improve his WAR7 because it would bump off his 1.1 WAR 2020 season, in which he played just 28 games. His lowest WAR over a 162-game season was 5.6 in 2019 (he played only 102 games). It’s reasonable to project another 5.0-7.0 WAR season next year, which would boost his WAR7 to the 46-48 range. There are three players in that WAR7 neighborhood and all three are no-doubt Hall-of-Famers: Al Kaline (48.8), Harry Heilmann (47.1), and Reggie Jackson (46.8).
Total WAR
Judge’s exceptional peak is his best case for the Hall because he got too late of a start to accumulate a great deal of total WAR. He almost certainly won’t reach the Hall positional average of 71.1 (which could change as more players get elected), but Tony Gwynn, Dave Winfield, and Vladimir Guerrero didn’t reach that threshold either.
The JAWS goal is 55 to become a surefire inductee. Let’s assume he reaches 46 WAR7, conservatively. He would need 64 total WAR to achieve 55 JAWS. Even if he settles with 54 total WAR, he would have 50 JAWS, putting him in the borderline territory. Through Monday’s action, he has 39.2 career WAR. Let’s assume (again, conservatively) he brings his total up to 42 by the end of the year. Another five-win season in 2024 would boost him to 47. His contract runs through 2031. This means that over the final seven years of his career, spanning ages 33-39, he would need to accumulate just seven more WAR to reach borderline status.
Even if we factor in a reasonable decline during which he becomes a replacement-level player over the last few years of his career, that’s still a very achievable goal for him. Here’s a guess about what the rest of his career might look like, even factoring in some injuries, aging, and spending more time as a designated hitter in future years:
| Year | Age | Season WAR | Career WAR | WAR7 | JAWS |
| 2023 | 31 | 6.1 | 43.0 | 43.4 | 43.2 |
| 2024 | 32 | 5.0 | 48.0 | 47.3 | 47.7 |
| 2025 | 33 | 3.0 | 51.0 | 47.3 | 49.2 |
| 2026 | 34 | 2.0 | 53.0 | 47.3 | 50.2 |
| 2027 | 35 | 1.0 | 54.0 | 47.3 | 50.7 |
| 2028 | 36 | 1.0 | 55.0 | 47.3 | 51.2 |
| 2029 | 37 | 0.5 | 55.5 | 47.3 | 51.4 |
| 2030 | 38 | 0.0 | 55.5 | 47.3 | 51.4 |
| 2031 | 39 | -0.5 | 55.0 | 47.3 | 51.2 |
51.2 JAWS is a low-end projection for where he might finish, and that makes him a firm borderline candidate. With a rosier projection in which he doesn’t taper off so quickly, he could finish in the mid-to-high 50s, which probably gets him inducted on the first ballot.
The Softer Factors
WAR and JAWS are just a guideline. There are other factors that voters will consider as well, many of which work in Judge’s favor. He already has an MVP and a Rookie of the Year. He owns the AL single-season records for home runs (62) and rookie home runs (52). Only nine other players in AL/NL history have had multiple 50-home run campaigns. Six are already in the Hall and the other three were PED users (Mark McGwire, Álex Rodríguez, and Sammy Sosa). He already has 17 home runs this year despite a ten-day IL stint; if he can achieve a third 50-homer season, he will join Babe Ruth as the only two players to ever hit 50 three times cleanly (again excluding McGwire, ARod, and Sosa).
Hall voters also tend to favor players who spend their entire career with one franchise—especially the Yankees. There’s no guarantee he won’t sign with another club in 2032 at age 40, but if he’s still good enough to get another contract, he will have already accumulated enough WAR to settle the Hall of Fame debate in his favor.
The Case Against
Remember my friend who argued against Judge reaching the Hall? He would posit that a 280-pound dude putting mileage on his legs roaming the outfield is more prone to breaking down. He’s probably not wrong. Injuries could scuttle his mid-30s completely, sapping him of enough value to make it to Cooperstown. As is, he only has three seasons so far with more than 500 plate appearances, and he’s already too old to get many more. For similar lack-of-durability reasons, Larry Walker almost missed the Hall and didn’t get elected until his final ballot.
Judge’s age and potential for injuries will also prevent him from achieving major milestones. He has 237 home runs. He probably will get to 400, but almost definitely not 500. With his high walk rate, he only has 797 career hits, and he might not reach 1,500. The only Hall-of-Fame right fielders in AL/NL history with fewer than 1,500 hits are Tommy McCarthy (weird 1800s proto baseball) and Ross Youngs (a mistake by the Veterans Committee).
A Judge Comparison
Even though they had completely different styles of play, the best comparison for Judge’s Hall case might be Ichiro Suzuki. Ichiro also got started late in MLB because he played in Japan through his age-26 season. Both won an MVP and a Rookie of the Year with a historically great rookie season. Judge won’t play into his mid-40s like Ichiro and he won’t come anywhere near 3,000 hits (4,367 including Japanese stats). While Judge is a very good outfielder (for now), Ichiro is arguably the greatest defensive right fielder ever. However, Judge will likely finish with more outstanding single seasons and a higher peak, not to mention the specialness of surpassing Roger Maris sans steroids.
Ichiro ended his career with 51.9 JAWS based on 60.0 WAR and 43.7 WAR7. Judge should end up in that same neighborhood, if not higher, due to a better WAR7 but probably lower total WAR. Their softer factors are similar, though you can give Ichiro an edge there if you want due to Japanese stats, ten Gold Gloves, and reaching the 3,000-hit plateau. He won’t be eligible for the Hall of Fame until the 2025 election, but he will almost certainly get in on the first ballot. That bodes well for Judge to get inducted if he stays on his current path without a catastrophic decline phase, even if he has to wait through a few election cycles.
