Imagine if Jake Burger and Luis Robert Had Any Plate Discipline At All
White Sox infielder Jake Burger is one of the most powerful sluggers in MLB. On Thursday, he blasted his 23rd and 24th home runs of the season, fifth-best in the American League. In his third plate appearance of the game, he did something truly rare—he drew a walk.
Despite his outstanding power numbers, Burger has only accepted 18 walks this year. His 5.8% walk rate isn’t the worst in MLB, but most of the players who walk less than he does have A) very little power, B) low strikeout and high contact rates, or C) both. Burger’s 31.8% strikeout rate is the sixth-worst in MLB (minimum 300 plate appearances). Only one player matches his aversion to walks, proclivity for strikeouts, and prodigious power: his teammate Luis Robert. The center fielder is second in the AL in both home runs (28) and strikeouts (126) and has just 22 walks in 427 trips to the plate.
Both players have a chance to finish the season with at least 30 long balls and fewer than 30 walks. This has happened 30 times before in AL/NL history, but never by teammates. Most often, the players who accomplished this swung early and often, not sticking around long enough to strike out. Burger and Robert are different; they could both top 150 strikeouts. Only four players have ever posted a stat line with 30 homers, fewer than 30 walks, and at least 150 strikeouts. Only Javier Baez dared to pull the trick twice.
| Player | Year | HR | BB | SO |
| Javier Báez | 2021 | 31 | 28 | 184 |
| Salvador Perez | 2021 | 48 | 28 | 170 |
| Javier Báez | 2018 | 34 | 29 | 167 |
| Butch Hobson | 1977 | 30 | 27 | 162 |
| Alfonso Soriano | 2002 | 39 | 23 | 157 |
Robert played in his first All-Star Game this year, and deservedly so. The lack of walks is just about the only flaw in his game. He buoys his on-base percentage with a decent batting average and he’s been plunked ten times this year. His overall slash line is .267/.322/.553, which is good for a 135 OPS+. He’s the perfect model of how to be a productive hitter without taking many walks.
Burger’s OPS+ is 114, which is also good, but belies one of the flaws of combining on-base percentage and slugging. He’s slugging .528, which would be fourth in the AL if he had enough plate appearances to qualify. However, his contact rate (66.9%) and BABIP (.230) are both fifth-lowest in MLB. Some of this is bad luck, but his slash line is .217/.273/.528. The only two players in MLB with 300 plate appearances and a lower on-base percentage are Javier Báez (of course) and Shea Langeliers at .259 and .264, respectively. 30 home runs and a sub-.280 on-base percentage has only happened five times before:
| Player | Year | HR | OBP |
| Tony Armas | 1983 | 36 | .254 |
| Dave Kingman | 1986 | 35 | .255 |
| Cory Snyder | 1987 | 33 | .273 |
| Tony Batista | 2004 | 32 | .272 |
| Rougned Odor | 2017 | 30 | .252 |
Burger probably won’t sink below Odor’s .252 mark, but he could threaten Armas for the most homers with an on-base percentage below .280. What’s most remarkable about his campaign is that he’s still an overall good hitter! That 114 OPS+ means he’s 14% better than league-average offensive production, solely fueled by power. In the last 100 years, only one qualified player has posted a 100 OPS+ or better with an on-base percentage below .280, and even that comes with a caveat. In 2020, Miguel Sanó had a 105 OPS+ despite a .278 on-base percentage, but that was during the 60-game pandemic year.
It’s worth repeating that Burger and Robert are two of the White Sox’s best hitters. Andrew Benintendi‘s 35 walks lead the team, and no one else even has 30. Their 252 walks are the lowest total in MLB and their .295 on-base percentage is second-worst. Robert is a legitimate star who would fit in any lineup. Burger’s all-or-nothing approach would work if he was surrounded by a more balanced cast, but he isn’t. The club is entering into a rebuild, having already traded away Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo López. This time around, they should try to develop some hitters who actually get on base from time to time.
(Editor’s note: All stats in this article are current as of Thursday July 27, 2023)
