Off The Bench’s 2024 Baseball Hall of Fame Ballot Chat
Max 6:33 PM – Sean, it’s that time of year again- the time I dig up my Slack password and log in to this website/app/whatever for the first time since the last time we did our annual Off The Bench Hall of Fame Chat!
Sean 6:39 PM – It’s a great time of year! There’s 8 inches of snow on the ground in Tennessee and the fireplace is roaring, but we get to think about baseball. Soon, we’ll be basking in the glory of Arizona sunshine.
Max 6:39 PM – Can’t. Wait.
6:40 Until then, though. We owe the baseball world our infallible, never wrong, oft-followed determination of who should and should not be admitted into Cooperstown. We do it every year.
6:40 This time, no Barry Bonds discussion needed
Sean 6:41 PM – Hip hip hooray! Never fear, there’s still some steroid conversation on this ballot.
6:42 Luckily, not really with our first candidate: Bobby Abreu, who is in his 5th year on the ballot
Max 6:43 PM – I’m a big Bobby Abreu fan. He’s a reliably low percentage on Immaculate Grid, which is outrageous because he was great. But I continue to not think he’s a HOFer. Want to guess how many career steals Bobby Abreu had?
Sean 6:46 PM – 356 steals. We’re in an era where we’re trying to value the whole player and Abreu is a prime example of a guy who doesn’t have a single carrying skill. So Abreu’s case is tied to being a complete player. I’m all in on the complete player discussion obviously, but he just doesn’t do it for me. Not a single top 10 finish in MVP voting. Weird that he’s on his 5th year on the ballot.
400! He had exactly 400 steals
Max 6:46 PM – 400 steals! That’s a lot
Sean 6:47 PM – It’s not HoF worthy.
Max 6:47 PM – I think if he hit for more power, people would be higher on him. If he was like 350 homers/ 400 steals instead of 288 homers, there’s be a stronger case. As it is… NEXT!
Sean 6:48 PM – Jose Bautista hit more homers!
6:49 He had a 6 year stretch where he absolutely was HoF worthy – from 2010 to 2015, Bautista averaged 38 homers per year, was an All Star every year, and finished in the top 5 in the MVP twice and top 10 two more times
6:50 The problem, of course, is that he hit .143 with the Braves
Max 6:50 PM – I texted you this fantastic article on Jose Bautista by Jay Jaffe and even though you never responded to the text, it remains fantastic. What an odd, interesting career- Bautista went from a skinny, small guy who sucked at third to the best power hitter in baseball for an ALCS team
6 straight All Star games in those 6 years you mentioned. When he was great, he was great. But his productivity fell off a cliff and it took a while to get going, too. I don’t think he was even a replacement level player in those years outside his Big 6Sean 6:54 PM – so he’s a no. Are you going to talk me into Carlos Beltran?
Max 6:54 PM – I think he’s a little short, but you can make a compelling case.
6:56 He was probably the best player in baseball in 2004, all things considered. And then followed that up with 4 All Star games in 5 years with the Mets, and he happened to have a 7.0 bWAR in that only non- All Star season
6:57 He also never really got bad? He wasn’t great his final season, sure, but he was an All Star at age 396:58You know what? I kinda think he might be a Hall of Famer?
Sean 6:58 PM – yeah – he had a really nice career and should be honored for it. I’m not sure he belongs in the same hallway as Babe Ruth though.
7:00 He feels like a classic big/small hall guy. Like you can tell the story of baseball without him, but he wouldn’t be out of place in the hallway.
Max 7:00 PM – I think that’s right. He strikes me as a guy that should get a hair of 75% on his like 8th year on the ballot
7:00 I say we put him on ours though
Sean 7:01 PM – Tentatively in. I think I’d have him off of my personal ballot.
Max 7:01 PM – Who’s next?
Sean 7:01 PM – Adrian Beltre
7:01 IN on Beltre
Max 7:01 PM – Just for fun, make the case
Sean 7:08 PM – He had 3000 hits as a multiple Platinum Glove award winner. Nearly 500 homers. He got there in a weird way – he put up 52 bWAR after he turned 30. But we can make the case pretty clearly just using the hits/homers/defense argument: Mays, Ripken, and Rodriguez are the only ones besides Beltré who reached 3000 hits/400 homers while playing key defensive positions, and as the Dallas Morning News’ Evan Grant pointed out at the time he retired, Beltré’s one of four with the milestones and at least five Gold Gloves, along with Mays, Winfield, and Yastrzemski — pretty decent company on both fronts. His hit total ranks 18th all-time, and first among third basemen.
Max 7:09 PM – Yeah, good job. He’s in. It took me a while to come around because I kept thinking about Mariners Beltre, who was definitely not a HOFer, but they rest of the career definitely gets him there.
7:09 Moving on, who we got?
Sean 7:10 PM – yeah – he had two careers. One where he was a sleeper good player with the Dodgers/Mariners and then one where he was a known good player with the Red Sox / Rangers.
7:11 Mark Buehrle. My brain will forever remember how to spell it
Max 7:11 PM – That’s better than I can do!
7:12 I don’t think Mark B. is in though. Kinda surprised he’s still on the ballot, honestly.
Sean 7:19 PM – he had 59 WAR, which is alot, but it feels like we’re giving him more of a participation trophy than an excellence trophy. I’m wrong for that though because he had at least 3.8 WAR in 10 seasons.
Max 7:21 PM – He was a great pitcher, for sure. But I think a long way from getting 75% of voters to vote for him. He’s more of a 25% guy
Sean 7:21 PM – For some context, that puts him just outside the Top 10 usually.
7:21 Gary Sheffield got some crap for calling Mike Mussina a #3 pitcher recently. I think Buerhle was a true #3 though.
7:22 Onward to Bartolo Colon!
Max 7:23 PM – You could tell the story of baseball without Bartolo Colon… but would you want to?
Sean 7:26 PM – If the aliens came to earth and wanted me to explain why I love baseball to them, Bartolo would be on the team that I picked.
Max 7:26 PM – Does that get him our vote?
Sean 7:26 PM – yes
Max 7:27 PM – Ha. Ok. That’s 3ish. Who’s next?
Sean 7:27 PM – Adrian Gonzalez
7:28 Gonzalez made $190M in his career. That feels like enough honor
Max 7:28 PM – He was really good! But he kind of peaked on the Padres and was just ‘very good’ on the Red Sox an Dodgers. 4 All Star games in a row, and then only 1 more after he left SD (edited)
7:28 Agreed.
Sean 7:30 PM – Todd Helton!
Max 7:30 PM – You’ve advocated for him every year, I think.
7:30 Lay it on me
Sean 7:32 PM – .300/.400/.500 club with over 2,500 hits and 3,900 times on base. Only 11 players in history have done that, and 10 of those 11 are in the Hall of Fame.
Only 21 players have managed to hit .320 with 30 homers and 100/100 RBI/Runs as many as three times ever in their careers. 15 of the 21 are in the Hall. The 5 who aren’t are Helton, Pujols, Cabrera, Bonds, and Ramirez. Helton did it in 5 straight seasons from 98-03
Max 7:33 PM – I’m convinced. Or at least I understand the futility of arguing against you (plus, I want to do that more forcefully later) .
7:33 That brings us to 4ish
Sean 7:34 PM – I’ll grab some tea so that my voice is ready to start yelling.
Matt Holiday is next. Is Matt Holliday better or worse than you think he is?
Max 7:34 PM – Is ‘his kid is better than him’ a good reason to keep someone out of the Hall?
Sean 7:35 PM – his kids**
Max 7:35 PM – I think maybe better? He got a lot of MVP votes along the way
7:35 Feels kind of Rolen-y to me
7:36 but I voted against adding Rolen to our ballot in the past
Sean 7:36 PM – Today’s his birthday
Max 7:37 PM – Well shit
Sean 7:37 PM – His nickname is Big Daddy
7:37 Yeah – I agree that he was better than I thought. Not quite HoF-better.
Max 7:37 PM – One dimensional player- no speed, hit for power and some average. No defense. A player you’d definitely want on your team but not a Hall guy. I get any of that wrong?
Sean 7:38 PM – Sounds right to me.
7:38 Torii Hunter is on his 4th ballot
Max 7:39 PM – We’ve been down this road, at length, before
Sean 7:39 PM – yeah? What’d we decide?
Max 7:40 PM – We had him as a close but out guy in 20227:40Nothing’s really changed
Sean 7:41 PM – That feels right. I remain shocked by his 2400+ hits. and 9 GG. If Abreu needed more homers, I think Hunter needed more steals
7:41 Andruw Jones is next
7:42 I shout about him. But you go first
Max 7:42 PM – His BRef page remains surprisingly great. He was well regarded and better than you thought he was. But Hunter was maybe slightly worse than Jones and Jones is very much a bubble guy
7:42 Great peak but it was short. Long, baaadddd tail makes him harder to argue for
7:43 That said, we’ve included him before
Sean 7:47 PM – Was it that short though? I lauded Buerhle for 10 seasons of at least 3.8 WAR. A Jones had 11 of at least 3 WAR
7:47 It’s just that they all happened in Atlanta
Max 7:47 PM – and 5 pretty rough seasons before he was out of the sport entirely.
7:48 Beltran remained the same kind of player as his knees went to shit. Jones… didn’t
Sean 7:49 PM – yeah – this almost feels like a Joe Mauer fight too
7:49 where you at on Mauer?
Max 7:49 PM – MVP, catcher, face of a franchise, Hall guy to me
Sean 7:50 PM – (Victor Martinez was technically next, but he has 13 fewer WAR than Omar Vizquel, who is also on the ballot and isn’t going to make it in)
7:50 So you’re in on Mauer and Jones?
Max 7:51 PM – Yep. Gets us to 6 already
Sean 7:52 PM – I’m very mid on Mauer. He started more games at 1B/DH than at Catcher
Max 7:53 PM – Yeah but he was really good at both. .306 career hitter. .827 OPS
Sean 7:55 PM – 143 career homers, which is the same amount that George Springer has had since 2018.
7:56He gets in just because he was a hometown kid? psh
Max 7:56 PM – Maybe Spring is a Hall of Famer too. We’ll get to that in 20327:57Should we revisit Helton? Or Jones?
Sean 7:57 PM – We should probably revisit Bartolo. I didn’t realize we’d still have such a crunch
7:58 Do you make us vote for Andy Pettitte?
Max 7:58 PM – I do not.
7:58 But I make us take a second to appreciate him and his stellar playoff performances and his key role on the Greatest Dynasty Ever
Sean 8:01 PM – unsubscribe. What do we think Brandon Phillips is doing these days?
Max 8:03 PM – I feel like he owns a fishing boat. I have no basis for this
Sean 8:03 PM – He’s got a really nice trophy room. That’s my theory.
Max 8:05 PM – He’s probably not making plans to head to Cooperstown in July though
(I think it’s July. Or August?)
Sean 8:05 PM – I like the fishing boat theory. He’d have a great name for it. Double play reel
Max 8:05 PM – That is great
Sean 8:05 PM – Manny Ramirez is next. Manny’s tough because he failed those drug tests. Like when you’re actually caught cheating, it’s different.
But I’m not here to shout about steroids. I’m here to celebrate baseball and that dude was so fun and great. He’s in
Max 8:14 PM – We’re going to have to boot Bartolo. Any maybe someone else at this rate
But I agree on Manny. He should be in. And so should Bonds, Roger Clemens, Alex Rodriguez, and Sammy Sosa
Sean 8:17 PM – bye bye Bartolo.
Max 8:18 PM – Who’s next?
Sean 8:18 PM – Jose Reyes is next. 517 steals, above average offense, and played shortstop. Classic Met
Max 8:19 PM – Kind of feels Jones like- he fell off a cliff and the tail was long and bad. Except Reyes’ was longer and bad-er. Really only 11 not terrible seasons
Sean 8:21 PM – he’s like the poster child for non-sustainable / poorly ageing skills (speed and contact oriented approach). Teams have gotten smarter about that
Max 8:21 PM – He was great for a while though! I hope teams don’t move too far away from players like Reyes, because when it’s good, it’s really good
Sean 8:22 PM – It’s also the most fun brand of baseball! Walks suck.
Anyway – Alex Rodriguez only got 37.5% of the vote last year. Manny got 33.2%. Voters seem to be steadfast against the steroids
Max 8:22 PM – The voters are old and wrong. Barry Bonds never getting voted in was a travesty, as well ARod not making it. ARod was a weirdo and a shit head, but he’s also the best infielder we’ve ever seen and had one of the most prolific careers ever
Sean 8:25 PM – well said. we go from A-Rod to K-Rod
Max 8:26 PM – Ok. What’s your guy on Fransisco Rodriguez?
Sean 8:26 PM – my guy?
Max 8:26 PM – Sorry, gut
Sean 8:28 PM – my gut is “no” but it feels unfair. He’s right there with Mauer for me in terms of noteworthy but not salivatory career
Max 8:30 PM – I agree that he seems like a no. He had some great seasons in terms of save numbers, but even in those, he wasn’t dominant. And there’s precedent that in order to make the Hall of Fame as a reliever, you need to be truly Top Tier- guys like Mariano Rivera, Trevor Hoffman etc.
The next tier down guys like Bruce Sutter and Lee Smith took a long time to get in and were semi controversial
K-Rod is clearly not on a Hoffman-type level. Really good pitcher, but seems like a clear no
(Hold this thought for later)
Sean 8:33 PM – I’ll hold all the thoughts. Jimmy Rollins is next. MVP award, premium position, more than 143 homers
Max 8:33 PM – Who would you have rather had at their respective peaks- Rollins or Reyes?
Sean 8:34 PM – Probably Reyes
Max 8:34 PM – Yeah. Moving on
Sean 8:35 PM – If our threshold for Mauer is MVP…
8:35 anyway – it’s Sheffield’s last year on the ballot!
Max 8:36 PM – Mauer was the best offensive catcher in baseball the whole time he was a catcher. He was a unique offensive weapon at the hardest position and when he had to move to first, he maintained his offense
8:36 Sheff always gets our vote, I think
Sean 8:37 PM – I’m in on Shef.
Max 8:37 PM – We may have a ballot crunch here at the end. Guess we’ll find out soon
Sean 8:38 PM – The story of baseball told through the James Shields trade trees is a fun one.
Max 8:39 PM – It’s a special thing to be on the other side of so many important trades
8:39 Got a link for our readers?
Sean 8:40 PM – https://www.reddit.com/r/tampabayrays/comments/13l5t9a/the_james_shields_trade_tree_is_kind_of_insane/
Max 8:40 PM – Perfect! Who’s next?
Sean 8:42 PM – Chase Utley!
Max 8:43 PM – So I’m super torn on Utley. He doesn’t strike me as a Hall of Famer, but his stats are very good, and a heck of a lot better than other second basemen, and I’m willing to be convinced
Sean 8:48 PM – I think I’m in on him. His peak was pretty insane. 5 straight seasons with a WAR over 7. then the next season was at 5.8. Mookie Betts has 4 total seasons with a WAR over 7.
Only 1800ish hits and the voters in 2006-2009 kinda screwed him. He finished with 9 WAR in 2008 and somehow finished 14th in MVP voting (that was also the year when Chipper hit .364 and finished 12th in the voting)
Max 8:52 PM – Yeah, it’s the 1800 hits and only 1 all star game in the last 7 years of his 16 year career (which really didn’t even get started until year 3) that are the kocks against
Sean 8:53 PM – We’ve got a spot on the ballot and Vizquel/Wagner/Wright left
Max 8:54 PM – Well Wagner will be the controversial one
8:54
Let’s toss Utley on the maybe pile
Sean 8:54 PM – I’m out on Vizquel and don’t really want to discuss hiM – 8:55I’d like a moment of silence for David Wright
*crickets*
Ok – Why is Billy Wagner controversial?
Max 8:57 PM –
Player A
- 976 innings
- 437 saves
- 2.86 ERA
- 1142 ks
- 1.155 whip
- 3 top 5 Cy young Finishes
- 1 top 10 MVP finish
- 6 All Star games
- 16 seasons
Player B
- 903 innings
- 422 saves
- ERA
- 1196 Ks
- .998 WHIP
- 2 top 10 Cy Finishes
- 2 seasons with MVP votes
- 7 All Star games
- 16 seasons
Who’s better? and by how much
Sean 9:02 PM – Give me Player B by about 4%. Love the whip and K/9Max 9:03 PM – Player B is Wagner. Player A is K-Rod, who we’ve already established is not a Hall of Famer. I don’t think K-Rod misses by only 4% either (edited)
Sean 9:04 PM – I’m fine leaving them both off. Both are extremely good, but so niche
Max 9:05 PM – And not quite good enough to reach break through this very high bar. Is that everyone?
Sean 9:06 PM – That’s everyone!
Are we messing up by having Colon in there? I don’t want to rob anyone of HoF because of fun Bartolo
Max 9:07 PM – Well. Who’s 11th?
Sean 9:08 PM – Billy Wagner is at 79% of public ballots
Max 9:08 PM – We’ve already established that the voters are bad
Sean 9:09 PM – yeah – these idiots didn’t vote for Bonds. We can’t be groupthinking with them
Max 9:10 PM – The whole point of this is to tell them what they’re supposed to do!
and now we have
Listen up, you bad voters!
Sean 9:11 PM – Yup! We can do this better
We did do this better.
Time for another log on the fire….
Max 9:12 PM – Congratulations to the 10 newest Hall of Famers! You’re welcome.
- Beltran
- Beltre
- Colon
- Helton
- Jones
- Mauer
- Manny
- A-Rod
- Shef
- Utley
