Boston Red Sox Offseason Grade
When I visited Winter Weekend at the MassMutual Center in Springfield, Mass. back in January, several fans I talked to said different versions of the same thing: the Boston Red Sox need to stop acting like a small market team.
Since that weekend, the walls have been closing in on management. It’s not just the fans complaining anymore. Red Sox royalty from past and present have made it clear that what’s going on (or, perhaps, not going on) is wholly unacceptable in a ballpark where everything in its confines, from the players, franks and architecture, is as immortalized as baseball itself.
The SparkNotes version of the 2023-24 offseason is as follows: Boston replaces Chaim Bloom with Craig Breslow, Red Sox Chairman Tom Werner said the team would go “full throttle” to build a contender, and then…they didn’t. The rest of the American League East, except the build-from-within Tampa Bay Rays, ostensibly has.
That said, it wasn’t that terrible of an offseason when evaluating it in retrospect. Let’s look at the notable moves they did (and didn’t) make during the winter months and how those moves may affect this season and beyond. I didn’t want to grade every signing, trade, and release they executed; only the most profound ones.
Signing Lucas Giolito
An already tumultuous offseason turned pretty grim when Boston’s marquee starting pitching signing went down for the year, and possibly part of 2025, with a torn ulnar collateral ligament. The Jeff Passan tweet signaling Giolito’s catastrophic injury was so jarring it had me convinced that the Mookie Betts curse exists, which means we will not see another Red Sox title before the apocalypse.
Dramatics aside, I was initially skeptical of the Red Sox signing Giolito to a two-year $38,5 million contract with a player option in 2025. I understood the team’s logic: Giolito has had a career full of ups and downs, and at times, he has illustrated ace potential (his Baseball Savant profile shows a pretty good 2022). He’s also still young (28), so a short-term deal to prove himself and maybe take some weight off of Brayan Bello’s shoulders is a cogent theory.
The problem to me, however, is some of Giloito’s career valleys have been much more glaring than his peaks as a pitcher. There’s always been some potential for success. Still, his recent tendency to give up the long ball (he gave up the second-most homers among qualified starters in 2023) and his putrid performance in the second half of last year with the Los Angeles Angels and Cleveland Guardians (combined 6.95 ERA) meant that a pairing with the smallest ballpark in baseball in one of MLB’s toughest divisions would probably be a recipe for disaster.
What confounds me is the Red Sox’s inability to take advantage of a robust trade market. Top pitchers like Dylan Cease and Corbin Burnes, both of whom are around the same age as Giolito, went for reasonable prices on the trade market relative to their talents, and both have so far proved that they are Cy Young-level flamethrowers.
Now, I know what the rebuttal is. Why would a John Henry-run team trade for someone they probably wouldn’t eventually sign long-term? It’s true; current ownership will not change their frugal ways, but I’d argue that trading for a young, strikeout-heavy pitcher can simultaneously appease the fanbase and maintain the thrifty image Henry wants to maintain.
Cease, who was linked to Boston in the past, would have been the perfect option. He is under team control through 2025 due to arbitration rules, which means the Sox would not have had to worry about paying him right away. The move would’ve kept Henry’s checkbook at bay while showing fans and players a commitment to winning.
With the glut of prospects and a crowded outfield, Boston could have formulated a nice package for Chicago’s former ace. Any number of their young hitters could’ve benefitted the White Sox; a bottom-tier offense in batting average and on-base percentage.
Instead, the Sox went the more conservative route, and ironically, they’re wasting more money by taking that path.
It was an okay move, and I can’t blame them for an injury they couldn’t have foreseen, but considering what was available, the Sox missed out on more established talent.
Grade: C
Trading for Isaiah Campbell
The first move Breslow made in his new role was arguably one of his best. Trading Luis Urias for Isaiah Campbell back in November, a move that largely fell under the radar this offseason, illustrated a commitment to improving a bullpen for those middle innings.
Boston posted a formidable 3.67 ERA during innings 7 through 9 in 2023 thanks to the lights-out pitching from Chris Martin and Kenley Jansen, but the middle innings were far from impressive. Their cumulative 5.37 ERA during innings 4 through 6 and 6.28 ERA in inning 6 indicates that their starters either fizzled as the game went on or their middle relievers couldn’t capitalize in their fleeting time on the field.
Campbell’s meager 28 innings of MLB experience indicates that he probably won’t turn into 2022 Edwin Diaz in the immediate future, but his 2.83 ERA and 33 strikeouts in those minimal chances yield some optimism for the 25-year-old’s long-term prospects. Out of his 27 appearances, 15 of them were spent in the fifth, sixth and seventh innings, meaning he has some experience during Boston’s most volatile innings and can help when needed in those scenarios.
Additionally, moving off of Urias was a smart move for Boston because the utility player’s skill set and positional flexibility are not necessary anymore now that the Sox have Trevor Story’s stellar defense back full-time at shortstop, Rafael Devers at third and recently-acquired second baseman Vaughn Grissom (hopefully after a short IL stint) at second. Urias’s paltry three homers in 52 games to go along with a .194 average with the Milwaukee Brewers and the Sox last year meant that it made little sense to keep him long-term.
Grade: B+
Chris Sale for Vaughn Grissom
Ask any Red Sox fan: this trade had to happen. Immediately after signing a five-year, $145 million deal, the lanky lefty turned into a real-life Operation board character as he pitched only 31 times from 2020-2023.
That said, most of the frustration aimed at Sale because of his lengthy injury history is a bit overblown. Even if the contract appeared to be an overpay, there was no indication in prior seasons that he would face protracted absences. He was one of the most durable pitchers in baseball between 2012 and 2018, averaging 198 innings pitched per season during that stretch. He was also a key component in the 2018 World Series run, so I think his value was earned.
Nonetheless, it wasn’t working in Boston as of late, so a move was imminent.
Miraculously, the Sox killed two birds with one stone here. Not only did they move on from Sale, but they got someone back who just turned 23, and if healthy, could be the first stable second baseman the Sox have had since Dustin Pedroia.
The sample size is limited, but Grissom showed some moxie in the short amount of time he’s been in the big leagues. His .353 on-base percentage in 2022 ranked 48th among 417 guys who accrued at least 150 plate appearances that year and his .291 batting average ranked 35th. That’s a welcome sign for a team whose second basemen combined for a middling .314 on-base percentage in 2023.
The one lingering question with Grissom has always been his defense, but that discourse mostly occurred when the Braves were trying to utilize him as a shortstop. With Story glued there in Boston, Grissom can focus on a much easier place in the infield and learn from Story, who’s one of the best fielders in the game.
Grade: B+
Trading Alex Verdugo
This might be the most disappointing trade of the off-season for two reasons: one, the Sox traded him to the Yankees; and two, the trade meant Connor Wong is the only player left from the infamous Mookie Betts deal.
I’m no salary expert, but Wong for Mookie sounds like a fantasy baseball trade you’d propose to your clueless friend who’s just in the league because the commissioner needed a slot filled.
Verdugo’s had a fine career, but he always showed a tendency to fade as the year went on and he and Alex Cora never got along. He batted .225 during the second half of 2023 after hitting .290 in the first half.
The only good news to come out of this is there is no doubt Verdugo will clash with the petulant Aaron Boone.
Grade: C-
Trading for Tyler O’Neill
My gut reaction to this was, “Why are we trading for ANOTHER outfielder when we could use pitching reinforcements?”
Honestly though, after catching a strong case of recency bias and looking more into his career. I’m in on another body helming the outfield. Esoteric records aside, if O’Neill can return to his 2021 output with the Cardinals when he finished eighth in MVP voting as a Gold Glover and 30-plus home run hitter, then the Sox got him for a steal.
This could easily be one of those under-the-radar moves.
Grade: B
No Jordan Montgomery
Going, going, going….GONE!! No, I’m not talking about a home run ball leaving the yard; I’m talking about Montgomery leaving the Red Sox grasp.
It’s definitely disappointing to not land him after all the swirling rumors, but I will say; I’m kind of glad the Sox decided to forego the Scott Boras drama. A one-year deal for $25 million isn’t that enticing for a team that is embracing the youth movement at the moment. Montgomery’s decision to join Arizona makes total sense for both sides since they just made the World Series.
I just feel bad for Jordan because this felt like the one time he could land a big deal and it didn’t happen. Now, he has to prove himself again.
Extending Brayan Bello but not Triston Casas
I love how much the Sox believe in Bello, as evidenced by his four-year extension. I just hope they can reach a long-term deal with Casas because he is just as important for Boston’s future. He’s a likable media darling who mashes homers and recently finished top three in the Rookie of the Year race. There’s no reason the organization shouldn’t extend him.
Truth be told, if the Sox aren’t going to spend outside the confines of Fenway, at least pay your homegrown talent. They should’ve learned their lesson after the Mookie ordeal.
Hiring Andrew Bailey
I might be cheating by giving this one an “A” since I wrote this section five games into the 2024 season and immediately after another phenomenal performance from a Red Sox starter. Truth be told, I totally forgot to add this signing in this article before the season started.
But, it’s hard to ignore what has transpired over the first weekend of the 2024 season. The Red Sox pitching staff looks much livelier than last year, and that’s mainly because of their new pitching coach.
Bailey’s contributions with the San Francisco Giants, where he helmed a staff that tallied the sixth-best ERA in baseball between 2020-2023, were not a fluke.
Although it’s only been five measly games in the 2024 season, the Sox have the second-best ERA and the second-best K-rate in baseball.
Granted, this success came against two teams (Seattle and Oakland) that struck out the second and fourth-most in 2023, so we’ll quickly see soon enough whether this is a fluke or not.
Regardless, the man who helped turn guys like Kevin Gausman and Carlos Rodon into Cy Young candidates is now injecting hope into a previously flawed rotation.
Grade: A
