These Two World Series Longshots Will Surprise You
We are a little less than a month away from the home stretch of the MLB season, and yet, there is no conspicuous World Series front-runner. This year’s parity is more apparent than in recent years, which is saying something for a league that typically presents more unpredictability than any other major North American sport.
The lack of a truly dominant team this year is obvious when you consider the fact that zero squads are on pace for 100 wins. If that occurs, it will be the first time since 2014 that no team reaches that mark in the regular season. In that year, the Los Angeles Angels had the best record in baseball with 98 wins and the two teams that met in the World Series, the Kansas City Royals and San Francisco Giants, were Wild Card teams.
The probability of a lower seed making the World Series has generally increased exponentially since the commissioner added a third Wild Card team to each league in 2022, as evidenced by the six-seed Philadelphia Phillies making the World Series in 2022 and the 84-78 Arizona Diamondbacks catching heat in time for a surprise World Series run of its own in 2023.
With all that in mind, 2024 feels like a ripe year for a surprise team to win the title, or, at the very least, make the fall classic. The best team in the league, the Cleveland Guardians, are 20 games over .500 as of publishing, but that record looks deceiving when you consider that they’ve played around .500 ball over the past two-and-a-half months.
The New York Yankees, meanwhile, feature the best one-two-hitting punch in recent memory, but capricious pitching and glaring holes in the lineup, including the cleanup spot, have caused some bumps in the road (like a losing record in July).
Other front-running teams like the Baltimore Orioles, Philadelphia Phillies, and Dodgers either have an Achilles heel they must address or they carry injury concerns to some of their marquee players.
Since no team wants to take the mantle as a clear favorite to win it all, I feel like now is a good time to look at two possible teams, one in the AL and one in the NL, that could make a surprise run to the World Series this year.
San Diego Padres
I was torn between the Padres and the Grimace Season Mets, but I ultimately had to go with the former for two reasons: an unsurprisingly eager AJ Preller (Padres president of baseball operations) in the offseason and before the trade deadline, and the heartbreaking loss of Kodai Senga to the Mets rotation.
Like most, I felt that the loss of Juan Soto and Cy Young winner Blake Snell, as well as the team’s well-documented financial and cultural woes, were obvious red flags coming into the 2024 season. Trading one of the best playoff players of the last five years in light of those budgetary concerns just felt like too great of a loss to overcome. In the heat of the moment, it looked like the Padres would lean toward conservative team-building in the immediate future.
It didn’t take long however to realize that this is AJ Preller we’re talking about: he will never sit on his hands. Somehow he was able to land strikeout master Dylan Cease and old-school contact maestro Luis Arraez by trading five prospects between both trades (which is incredible considering the amount of prospects he sent to Washington a few years ago).
The truck didn’t stop there though. Preller also quickly turned San Diego’s bullpen into the baseball equivalent of the X-Men by acquiring Tanner Scott (94th percentile in whiff rate and also never allows hard contact) and Jason Adam, two All-Star caliber players they can slot alongside Robert Suarez, a top five leader in saves this year and top seven leader among relievers in ERA. The fact that all three of them can function in the closer role offers some versatility in case one of them struggles in those last-inning scenarios.
San Diego may also be a tough out in the playoffs because they currently boast a league-leading lineup in batting average and a top-10 lineup in other salient offensive categories thanks to Manny Machado’s sold year, Arraez’s incredible contact ability, the surprise arrival of Jurickson Profar (fifth in on-base percentage for the year) and the recent torrid stretch from Xander Bogaerts (.429 average since the All-Star Break, which is third in the league in that span). The only real concern in the lineup is Fernando Tatis Jr. and his murky injury status. He’s been out since late June with a right femoral stress reaction. The last report said he’s still a couple of weeks away from a rehab assignment.
Still, the Cease and Soto trades have also garnered positive results. Following a shaky first couple of months, Cease looks back to his Cy Young caliber self from 2022 after pitching a recent no-hitter, and Michael King, who was one the premier pieces in the Soto trade, has had a really solid year as a starter (3.24 ERA) even though he’s reached the highest innings he’s ever pitched.
Between Preller’s eagerness and a balanced on-field performance this year, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Padres make a surprise run in the postseason. And if they do, you’ll be sure they will be banging this: Padres Fans – “That’s What’s In” Phillies Rap (youtube.com), and this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MODHirs0dMM.
Boston Red Sox
Listen, I get it, this may come off as a biased pick since I’m a Sox fan, but look at the numbers! They’ve consistently been one of the best teams in baseball since the beginning of the summer and have already shown a penchant for beating good teams.
As of writing this, they currently sit a couple of games out of the Wild Card, and the team they trail-the Kansas City Royals- features a solid young core. But the Sox have that inexplicable energy; the kind that is simultaneously intangible and palpable, and it’s not just because they play in the most famous ballpark on the planet.
Although John Henry has maintained a frugal streak, even as tickets continue to be some of the most expensive in the league, there’s a hunger and a camaraderie to this team that I haven’t seen in about half a decade. You can see that brotherhood manifest in Manager Alex Cora’s cadence after a recent game: https://tinyurl.com/bdznm68c or the way they rally around breakout right fielder Wilyer Abreu after the unfortunate passing of his grandmother: https://tinyurl.com/ycynrfmd. There’s just an essence and a general aura to this team that goes beyond baseball.
Why is that the case? Well, part of it is Cora and superstar Rafael Devers’ leadership and part of it is probably the fact that a lot of these guys played together in Triple-A Worcester and developed bonds through that process.
Whatever the case may be, the vibes are immaculate.
The offense is absolutely cooking this year. Jarren Duran is an All-Star MVP and one of the most dangerous leadoff hitters in baseball, future gold glove winner Ceddanne Rafaela is in the rookie-of-the-year conversation, the aforementioned Abreu is having a glowing season as a replacement to Alex Verdugo (and is also a rookie-of-the-year candidate), Connor Wong is a top 10 hitting catcher based in average and OPS and Devers-aka Carita-is just mashing the ball in all directions no matter if it’s in the zone or not: RAFFY WENT OFF 😤 Rafael Devers showed out in win over Yankees 🔥 | ESPN MLB (youtube.com).
As a team, the Sox are second in batting average this year, fourth in on-base percentage, eighth in wRC+ and first on OPS. You probably wish they’d cut their strikeout rate a little bit (fourth last in the league) but it’s incredible how they’re putting up these types of numbers without their other future star player, Triston Casas, for most of the year (though he’s on the verge of returning). When Casas does return, he’ll add some much-needed patience to an already scary lineup, which not only slugs and gets on base, but also steals like they’re the 2015 Royals thanks to Duran and David Hamilton’s impressive speed and aggressiveness on the base paths.
I suppose the one concern with this squad, like always over the past few years, is the pitching. After a top-five start to the year, the staff has seemingly plateaued since the All-Star break. Part of it is a weak bullpen, which has cost them some tough games over the past few weeks, but some of it also has to do with Brayan Bello’s underwhelming second full year (5.24 ERA) and the fact that Tanner Houck (a 2024 All-Star) and Kutter Crawford are feeling the fatigue from a long season. This doesn’t really come as surprise since Houck has reached his highest innings pitched in a season and Crawford is about too (they have a combined 7.97 ERA in the second half of the year so far).
Bello, however, has been playing well recently, and the Sox have reinforcements in the bullpen after a tough stretch. Chris Martin is already activated from an injury and the front office acquired Lucas Sims and Luis Garcia at the deadline to give them more options in late games. Hopefully, those moves help in the final couple months of the season.
Do I think that the Sox are a favorite to win it all? No, probably not. But do I think the vibes are great in Boston? Absolutely.
Sometimes in baseball, vibes are all you need to carry a team to the promised land.
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