Should We Be Surprised by Jorge Soler?
The Kansas City Royals are not having a good start to the year. They’re 13-30, sporting a .302 winning percentage that sets them on a pace for a 113 loss season, which would be the worst since the historically bad 2003 Detroit Tigers. As of writing, they’re the 3rd worst offense in the AL by runs scored and the worst pitching staff in baseball. They’re not in last place though – that honor belongs to the hapless and disappointing White Sox. But the Royals have had a bright spot so far through this season- responsible for a full 1.5 of his team’s 3.5 wins above replacement (WAR), 26-year-old Jorge Soler has seemingly finally found his grove. Prior to this year, he had yet to amass even 1.0 WAR in the majors. So… should we be surprised?
Look – we should absolutely be surprised that Soler has been this good offensively. He currently has a .932 OPS and a .404 wOBA that places him 14th in the Majors in terms of overall impact at the plate. He’s been really good. Surprisingly good even. If you gave him some truth serum, I bet even he would tell you that he’s pleasantly surprised that he’s been able to contribute this holistically at the plate. He’s been one of only 9 guys to sport a .300/.400/.500 line and steal multiple bags so far this year. But, I’m more interested in Soler’s emergence as a surprise historically. Just how rare is this type of late blossom?
The fun thing about Soler is that he’s still just 26-years-old despite being in the MLB lexicon since he signed in 2012. He’s appeared in parts of five Major League seasons, but he won’t be a free agent until after the 2022 season. He’s certainly had a funky start to his career. I can confidently say that MLB hasn’t had anyone else quite like Soler- aninternational free agent who signed an 8 year/$27M deal, who took 5 years to free himself from the minors permanently, who, if this early-season trend continues, eventually became one of the league’s best 15 or so best offensive players. But if we look through some of those filters, can we get some historical perspective on Soler’s emergence?
The simplest way to consider Jorge Soler is to assess how often these age-26 “blossom” seasons happen.
Each player has their unique path to the Majors. Soler’s meandering path has been marked by injury, trade, and a lost season due to the Royals’ mindless 2017 minor league assignment. Other guys who blossom like this probably have their own reasons why. But I’m most interested in how many of these guys exist.
Soler is on pace for a 6.0 win season. Since 2000, there have been 160 such seasons by 93 players aged 26 or older. If we filter that list again to find guys who had yet to establish themselves as a Major Leaguer (either by qualifying for the batting title or putting together 2.0 career WAR), we’re left with 7 guys who, like Soler, blossomed late. That’s roughly one every two years! Here’s the list with a quick note about each of their meandering paths.
- Ichiro Suzuki (2001) – The great Ichiro came over from Japan at age 27 and set the world on fire.
- Chase Utley (2005) – Utley wasn’t a rookie in 2005 when he put up 7 WAR on the Phillies in 2005. He was, however, coming off of a solid month and a half in the pros, having put together 1.5 fWAR in 2004. He barely qualifies.
- Ben Zobrist (2009) – If you have an explanation for why Zobrist’s failed to accomplish anything at the MLB level through age 27, I’m all ears. He was never really given the MLB opportunity prior to his monster age 28 season, but he had high-quality minor league numbers that probably had some scouts claiming they knew the MLB breakout was imminent.
- Andres Torres (2010) – If Torres doesn’t win the award for lowest profile 6+ WAR season, then I’ll be surprised. Torres was a big part of the year when everything came together for the Giants. Prior to that, he had 1.2 career WAR spread across parts of 5 MLB seasons.
- Josh Donaldson (2013) – The now-perennial MVP candidate was once a good-not-great-hitting catching prospect. He’s retooled his swing and is looking to cash in big this offseason.
- Matt Carpenter (2013) – Carpenter received rookie of the year votes prior to his big breakout, but he only had 1.5 WAR that rookie year with nearly 400 Plate Appearances.
- Tommy Pham (2017) – Pham put together a sparkling year seemingly out of nowhere at age 29 last year. Pham’s breakout apparently had to do with fixing some eye problems that had plagued him for a few years.
We would also be remiss if we did not mention Jose Bautista‘s breakout. A.J. Pollock, Franklin Gutierrez, Brett Gardner, Lorenzo Cain, and Morgan Ensberg also put together 6+ WAR seasons without qualifying for the batting title before their age-26 campaign.
The group is a hodge-podge of Major Leaguers. Some simply took longer to grow into their Major League roll. Others, like Andres Torres, quickly flamed out. But this group of MLB players who followed similarly circuitous routes to MLB success as Jorge Soler shows us that we shouldn’t be surprised by his emergence. This type of thing happens, 6+ WAR players can come from anywhere.
-Sean Morash
