When Run Differential Doesn’t Say All: Colorado Rockies
This post is one in a series on team’s who’s run differential has proved a poor indicator of actual results. Read our posts examining the run differential of the Los Angeles Dodgers, Seattle Mariners, and Washington Nationals, here.
Generally, a team’s win-loss record and its run differential correlate positively.
As of August 31, the league leaders in run differential were Boston and Houston, at an astounding +215. As we might expect, their record reflects this. The Red Sox were 50 games above .500 as of this date, best in Major League Baseball. Not to be outdone, the Astros were 29 wins above .500.
Other contenders in the MLB have differentials to match their records, or vice-versa. The New York Yankees (+153), Cleveland Indians (+140), Chicago Cubs (+111), Atlanta Braves (+97), Arizona Diamondbacks (+85), and Oakland A’s (+81) are all leading their respective divisions or are otherwise currently Wild Card qualifiers.
Of course, there are always outliers. Just look at the 2007 Arizona Diamondbacks, who managed a 90 – 72 record and an NL West crown despite a -22 run differential. In 2018, other teams possess records which seem to defy what we’d anticipate given their run differentials. Let’s look at some squads which have either exceeded or fallen short of expectations:
Colorado Rockies
Win-loss record as of (8/31): 72 – 62
Expected win loss-record: 65 – 69
Despite a middling -21 run differential, the Colorado Rockies find themselves right in the thick of the NL West race and the National League Wild Card race. Since finishing the first “half” of the season at 51-45, the Rockies have posted a 21-17 record. With Arizona, Colorado, and the LA Dodgers all jockeying for position atop the NL West, the Rockies are most certainly in the hunt.
How did they get here?
Few teams can boast the kind of offensive talent the Colorado Rockies possess. Nolan Arenado is, as usual, a stud, hitting at a .300+ clip with 30+ HR and 90+ RBI on the campaign. Trevor Story is having a career year, and his thievery on the basepaths has notably improved. Story has 20+ steals alongside his 25+ home runs. Charlie Blackmon continues to be a reliable run scorer and producer. Carlos Gonzalez, seemingly past his prime, has been reasonably productive with the bat. DJ LeMahieu, despite missing time in May and July, has been above-average when on the field. Even Ian Desmond has shown flashes of excellence at times, managing 20+ HR, 75+ RBI, and 15+ stolen bases on the season. It’s no wonder Colorado is tied for 10th in the league in runs scored. That may be underachieving by their standards.
Speaking of Colorado standards, and despite the Coors Field factor, the starting rotation has been reliable. Kyle Freeland is pacing the club in wins, ERA, and WHIP. German Marquez just posted his best full month of 2018 and leads the staff in strikeouts. Tyler Anderson has been serviceable, and Jon Gray, once considered the staff ace, has performed better since his brief demotion to the minors. While by no means a dominant rotation, there is certainly more room for optimism here than in past years.
Where do they go from here?
Two series apiece against the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Los Angeles Dodgers loom largest here, as they may decide the NL West. Apart from these series, though, the Colorado Rockies’ schedule seems favorable. They face the San Francisco Giants in two series as well. They also close out against Philadelphia and Washington, who may not be playing for anything meaningful by this point. In addition, seeing as the bullpen outside of Adam Ottavino and Scott Oberg seemingly can’t pitch much worse than it has up to now, the Rockies could well get hot coming down the stretch.
Also read our posts examining the run differential of the Los Angeles Dodgers, Seattle Mariners, and Washington Nationals, linked to here.
