Arizona, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh: What Happened?
The 2018 Major League Baseball season isn’t over yet: As of this writing, only the Cleveland Indians have clinched their division (though the Boston Red Sox AL East crown is a relative certainty). Indeed, there’s a handful of games yet to be played, and many a race to be decided. Still, even if some teams haven’t yet been mathematically eliminated, their playoff prospects are grim. For many, that grim reality isn’t new news; for others, it’s a recent shock.
These teams were buyers at the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline, some even division leaders, but August and September have sealed their fate; they’ve fallen on hard times, at the wrong times, and it’s been their undoing. Let’s see where they went wrong.
Arizona Diamondbacks
As of July 31, the 60-49 D-Backs had a lead—albeit slim—in the NL West. Since then they’ve played 18-24 ball, and are now looking up at the Colorado Rockies and Los Angeles Dodgers in the division standings. They trail the Dodgers and the St. Louis Cardinals for the second Wild Card berth as well.
What happened?
To put it mildly, September has not been kind to the Arizona Diamondbacks: They’ve gone 4-12 in the month (as of 9/18). This includes losing two to LA and three of four to Colorado. A number of these losses are credited to the bullpen, notably to Brad Boxberger, whom Arizona has since removed as closer. Boxberger, owner of a 2-7 record with an ERA upwards of 4.00, deserved the demotion.
To be fair, it’s not as if the Diamondbacks have been tearing the cover off the ball either. In 16 September games, the D-backs scored only six or more runs three times. Opposing teams have held them to three or fewer runs seven times over the same span. For the season, Arizona has been merely average in generating runs. Their pitching woes have meanwhile come at a bad time, particularly when facing division rivals.
If they had played to their expected win-loss record, the Arizona Diamondbacks would be in the thick of the National League playoff race. They do still have series at home versus the Rockies and Dodgers, so their misfortune could change. Without timely hitting and better contributions from the bullpen, however, Arizona will be watching the playoffs from home.
Philadelphia Phillies
At the trade deadline, the 59-48 Philadelphia Phillies were staring down at the rest of the NL East. Now, 6.5 games back of the Atlanta Braves, they are just trying to stay above .500 and in second place in the division above the disappointing Washington Nationals. Like the Diamondbacks, the “Fightin’ Phils” have less than a 5% chance of making the playoffs, according to ESPN.
What happened?
Like the Diamondbacks, the Phillies have not had a fruitful September. Philadelphia is 4-11 as of 9/18. The Nationals swept them in a three-game series, and they have only managed a 4-6 combined record against the Miami Marlins and the New York Mets. If one were to accuse the Phils of playing down to their competition, he or she would be right.
Like Arizona, Philadelphia has struggled to produce runs, especially in the month of September. On six separate occasions this month, they have lost while scoring only one run. It’s one thing to be held in check by the likes of Jon Lester and Stephen Strasburg. It’s another to be unproductive against the likes of Erick Fedde and Wander Suero.
At the deadline, though the Philadelphia Phillies were 11 games above .500, expected win-loss dictated they should only be five games above even. Now, closer to their expected win-loss from July 31, their negative run differential suggests they’ve still overachieved somewhat. That they’ve been relevant this long is nonetheless commendable. After years of being cellar dwellers, things suddenly look brighter for the Phils.
Pittsburgh Pirates
At the July 31 deadline, the 56-52 Pittsburgh Pirates appeared to be on an upward trajectory. They had won eight of 11 games coming out of the All-Star break and were only three games out of a tie for the second Wild Card berth. Trading for Chris Archer and Keone Kela (and trading away Austin Meadows and Tyler Glasnow) seemed like moves worth making.
What happened?
Unlike the Diamondbacks and the Phillies, the Pirates have posted a winning record in September. August, on the other hand, was brutal for the Bucs. Pittsburgh went 10-17 that month, scoring zero or one runs eight times. These offensive struggles area a microcosm of a season marked by below-average run-producing and a severe lack of power.
It also hasn’t helped that Archer, the Pirates’ big deadline acquisition, has been somehow worse than he was in Tampa Bay. Through eight games pitched for his new club, Archer owns a 5.49 ERA and 1.47 WHIP. Essentially, he has pitched at replacement level.
The Pittsburgh Pirates are a .500 team, more or less. Besides batting average (offense) and quality starts (pitching staff), they are as average as their record and run differential suggest. As with the Philadelphia Phillies, though, they have done well despite a payroll that is below average. By this standard, the 2018 season is certainly no failure.
There’s an old saying in baseball: Every team will win 1/3 of their games and lose 1/3 of their games – it’s the last 1/3 that makes or breaks a season. Baseball season is six months long – for the Diamondbacks, Phillies, and Pirates, the August-September 1/3 of things broke them.
