Remember when the Marlins traded Stanton, Yelich, and Ozuna?
Long after the crowd, players, and even the cleaning crew had gone home, Michael Hill remained at the stadium. His office had all the trappings of power- an enviable view of the field, plush carpeting, sleek furniture, and expensive artwork. Scouting reports, invoices, and other mundanities were strewn about his desk. His crystal decanter was nearly empty. A fluorescent light flickered.
Hanging on the wall across from his desk was a magnetic board showing the NL East standings. His assistant was tasked with updating the board everyday. It was positioned strategically so he could always see it. Sometimes this motivated him, other times it tortured him. On this night, the Nationals were in first place. The Mets’ magnet in fourth place was slightly askew, and, viewed through a lens of sleepless desperation and inebriation, it appeared to be smirking. Even though it was off kilter by just millimeters, it put a slight gap between his Marlins and the rest of the division.
The magnets laughed at him. They were superior and they knew it. The Marlins couldn’t keep up with the rest of the magnets. Not on the field, not financially, not in attendance, not in any way that mattered. He hurled his glass at the board. It missed badly, damaging the frame of his wedding photo.
He stumbled to the bathroom, washed his face, and chewed a few breath mints. After lingering too long in front of the mirror, he returned to his office to call a taxi.
He froze in the door frame. Someone was reclining in his chair, feet up on the desk. It was a rather large man wearing a black three button suit with red pinstripes. His wore matching crimson shoes and shirt with a black tie. On his head was a Marlins cap.
“Wh-who are you?” stammered Michael. “You need to g-get out of my– I’m calling s-security!”
The stranger revealed a luminescent smile. “Relax, Mr. Hill,” he replied in a deep, mellow voice. “Security will not come for me. Besides, you and I are overdue for a chat. Please, take a seat.”
The stranger snapped his fingers, and the next moment, Michael was sitting. Had there been a chair here before? He couldn’t recall. How strange.
“Who are you?” Michael repeated. “What do you want from me?”
The stranger smiled again. “I am called many names; you may choose whichever one you prefer. That is not important. The more pressing matter is how we can help each other.”
The stranger slowly stood and turned his back on Michael, facing the window with view of the stadium. “I have many occupations, Mr. Hill; in fact I have every occupation. In a sense, I am the most helpful being in existence. For the purposes of our conversation, think of me as a player agent.” He turned to face Michael. “I can rearrange that magnet board, Mr. Hill. I can make you the envy of every executive in baseball. However, like any other negotiation, we must set a fair price.”
He snapped his fingers again and Michael found himself standing next to him at the window. The stadium lights illuminated the field below. He could have sworn they’d been turned off hours ago. How strange.
“Think carefully,” said the stranger. “Tell me your desire. What keeps you here so late at night? What do you want?”
Michael didn’t hesitate. “I want to win the World Series. I want everyone in baseball to know how smart I am!”
To Michael’s surprise, the stranger laughed, deeply and slowly. “Does that sound like a fair deal to you? It takes 25 players to win a World Series. Are you really worth 25 men? I think not. However, I will make you a counter proposal.”
The stranger snapped his fingers again. Nearly all the stadium lights went dark. Only the outfield remained lit. “I will give you an outfield. Not just any outfield- the best young outfield in all of baseball. Picture yourself as the toast of the league! Every organization will line up to make offers for your trio of outfield stars!” The stranger turned his head and bored into Michael’s eyes. “I am offering you a three-for-one opportunity. This is a generous deal, Mr. Hill. If you accept, you can keep these outfielders and build a championship around them, or you can trade them for even more talent riches. But I must warn you to read the fine print.”
Michael hadn’t even realized he was holding a contract and a pen. How strange. “To hell with the fine print!,” he exclaimed, as he signed the contract.
“To hell indeed,” smiled the stranger. He snapped his fingers and was gone.
***
The 2017 Marlins outfield was one of the greatest in recent history. Giancarlo Stanton blasted 59 home runs and won the MVP. Christian Yelich was a five-tool threat with a 118 wRC+. Marcell Ozuna hit .312/.376/.548 with 37 dingers of his own. All three were ages 25-27 and played at least 156 games. Their combined 134 wRC+ is the fourth best of any team’s outfield in the last 20 years.
| Team | OF wRC+ |
| 2018 Boston | 141 |
| 2002 Atlanta | 136 |
| 2001 St. Louis | 135 |
| 2017 Miami | 134 |
| 2004 San Francisco | 134 |
Then, the Marlins did a very Marlins thing: they traded all three of them away in one winter. It’s been nearly a full season since, and Miami has the worst record in the National League. With winter on the horizon once again, let’s look back at these three trades to see how the players and teams have fared.
Giancarlo Stanton to the Yankees
This was one of the biggest headlines of the offseason, and an oddly straightforward trade. The Yankees sent second baseman Starlin Castro and two minor leaguers to Miami for the reigning NL MVP. Stanton couldn’t be expected to slug 59 bombs again; his previous career high was 37. Only Babe Ruth, Ken Griffey Jr., Mark McGwire, Sammy Sosa, and Alex Rodriguez ever hit 50 home runs in consecutive seasons. He does have 35 this year though, which is in line with his usual production. His .836 OPS is slightly below his .903 career mark, but he has been healthy all year and has 3.6 fWAR. Not a bad season overall.
The Yankees are well behind the Red Sox (see the above chart) in the AL East but they’ve clinched a Wild Card spot. Stanton has been a big part of their offense, especially when Aaron Judge was injured. They had better get used to him; if he does’t exercise his opt-out following 2020, he’ll stay under contract until at least 2027 (his age-37 season).
Of course, Stanton’s contract was the impetus for the trade in the first place. Starlin Castro has a club option for 2019, which the Marlins may well decline. He’s done a decent job for them on the field as their regular second baseman, hitting .282/.332/.406 with 2.5 fWAR. The two prospects in the deal have both struggled with walks in the low minors. Pitcher Jorge Guzman has too many walks while infielder Jose Devers has too few. Nevertheless, if Castro walks away, they will be the only remnants of the Stanton trade in the Marlins organization.
Christian Yelich to the Brewers
Stanton may have been last year’s MVP, but Yelich might win it in 2018. He leads the NL in batting average (.319), slugging percentage (.569), OPS (.954), wRC+ (155), and fWAR for position players (6.3). He also chipped in 31 home runs and 20 stolen bases for the Brewers, a likely Wild Card team, though they can still catch the Cubs in the NL Central. He’s locked up on a team friendly deal through 2022, which concludes with him making no more than $15M in his most expensive season.
The Marlins received a quartet of acclaimed prospects in return, but all have underwhelmed this year. Center fielder Lewis Brinson saw extensive major league action with an anemic .199/.241/.347 slash line in 375 plate appearances. Middle infielder Isan Diaz, a former top 100 prospect, batted just .232 with a .399 slugging percentage in double-A and triple-A. Outfielder Monte Harrison matched Diaz’ .399 slugging percentage in double-A. Pitcher Jordan Yamamoto was limited to 68 2/3 innings due to injuries.
Marcell Ozuna to the Cardinals
If the season ended today, Ozuna’s Cardinals would face Yelich’s Brewers in the Wild Card Game. After breaking out last year, Ozuna struggled through the first part of 2018. He managed just a .699 OPS through August 4. However, he’s been on a tear since then, slashing .331/.371/.586 down the stretch. Overall, it’s a 2.6 fWAR season for the 27-year-old, who’s still arbitration eligible for one more season.
The Cardinals sent four young players back to Miami in the deal. Right-hander Sandy Alcantara headlined the package. He posted a stellar 2.35 ERA in four major league starts, but hidden underneath is a less savory 4.59 FIP, fueled by only 17 strikeouts in 23 innings. That’s pretty consistent with the 96 strikeouts in 127 innings he accumulated in the minors, and not exactly indicative of a future ace. Speedy outfielder Magneuris Sierra barely hit at all in the majors (.172/.198/.189 in 129 plate appearances) or triple-A (.260/.287/.341 in 367 plate appearances). Pitchers Daniel Castano and Zac Gallen were throw-ins who are unlikely to become major contributors in Miami.
There’s a good chance Stanton, Yelich, and Ozuna will all participate in Wild Card Games this October. In the end, the best long-term asset the Marlins received for their three amazing outfielders is… payroll flexibility? Few if any of the prospects look like franchise cornerstones. They’ll have to spend some of that money wisely if they want to get to the playoffs themselves. When and if that happens, there’s a good chance they’ll see a familiar face in the opposing outfield.
