What If The 2019 Free Agent Class Isn’t As Good As We Think?
Free agency is upon us, and both general managers and fans are giddy with excitement over what is hyped as one of the best free agent classes in MLB history. But, what if it isn’t? What if it turns out that, aside from the two 26-year old superstars headlining the class, there isn’t much depth? What if even those two don’t live up to the speculation? While it may come off as raining on the free agency parade, fans shouldn’t get their hopes up. This could all end in a winter letdown. Brace yourselves.
For years, the anticipation of 2018’s FA class has been simmering. Last season’s stagnation can largely be attributed to a league-wide attempt to pass the marshmallow test; a collective decision to delay gratification; teams forgoing pennies and nickles in 2018 to shell out for the dimes this offseason. Case in point: The game’s two most valuable franchises, the Los Angeles Dodgers and the New York Yankees, decided to cut payroll instead of spend. Only the Boston Red Sox really shelled out, for J.D. Martinez, and even that deal came in lower than expected – and took until late March to realize.
On the face of it, it looks good. Manny Machado and Bryce Harper: one is a five-time All Star and the other is a former MVP – and both are just entering the prime of their careers. However, there are plenty of underlying issues to potentially scare off clubs.
In Machado’s case, the 2018 postseason was not a very good one. Although he helped the Dodgers to another NL pennant, he made plenty of headlines for all the wrong reasons once they got there. Questions of his hustle and maturity were amplified, especially after he almost single-handedly started a brawl against the Brewers in the NLCS. Machado appeared to deliberately step on Milwaukee first baseman Jesus Aguilar’s foot when running out a routine grounder, earning a fine from the Commissioner’s Office in the process. In the World Series, he was accused of stealing signs and embarrassed himself by posing for a long single. On top of all of that, Machado struggled mightily in his first full season at shortstop. In 2018, he was responsible for -10 Rfield (Runs from Fielding). (Contrast that to his time at third, where he averaged a striking 14 runs saved per season.)
Bryce Harper is a different case. The enigmatic outfielder rubbed many the wrong way in his early years, but overall nothing too serious to actually hurt his value. The real problem is his consistency, or lack thereof. In 2015, Harper posted arguably one of the greatest seasons ever, leading the league in homers, OPS, and runs, along the way to posting a phenomenal WAR of 10. However, it has been a mixed bag since then. While 2017 was a solid, albeit injury-shortened, year, it came sandwiched between two seasons where the 26-year old batted in the .240’s. Harper also has had an injury history at a young age, which is never a good sign. While it certainly won’t be a deal breaker, his inability to play more than 120 games in three of his seven years in Major League Baseball could certainly be used against him come negotiation time.
With all that being said, both free agents are truly a generational talents. Machado has the potential to be a 6 WAR player for the next five years (at least), and has just begun to realize his potential as a middle of the order bat. Harper, despite a batting average drop to .249 in 2018, posted a .393 OBP on the strength of an absurd 130 BBs, racking up an easy 34 HRs, 103 Runs, and 100 RBI along the way. The age and potential apparent in both these players will have many teams (and every fan base) drooling, and understandably so.
But, it appears many aren’t interested. Personnel clogs are having an effect in big markets (Corey Seager is back in LA; Miguel Andujar has emerged in New York, and the outfield there is crowded; the Cubs are set; etc.), but what may truly be a deal breaker is the exorbitant price tag that will come with both players. Represented by super agents Scott Boras and Dan Lozano, respectively, Harper and Machado are asking for king’s ransoms that could cripple any team that signs them. In the new age of prospect hoarding and long-term thinking, handing out mega, multi-year deals has become universally rejected by most GMs, and anyone not named Mike Trout will have a tough time selling a team to throw so much money into one player.
The rest of the class of ‘18 are a mixed bag. As far as position players go, many of the names on the list looked more promising several years ago, when GMs began their 2018 fantasizing. Many former stars have seen their value diminish due to age or injury. This applies to free agents Andrew McCutchen, A.J. Pollock, Daniel Murphy, Adam Jones, Michael Brantley, and Nelson Cruz, among others. Although they should still be paid and will help out whoever they sign with, they aren’t causing nearly as much excitement as they did a few years ago. Two fun stories to watch are the coming out parties for elder statesmen free agent Nick Markakis and free agent Jed Lowrie. Both All-Stars last season at the age of 35, it remains to be seen how risky teams will get with them, but they will go to the bank with more than ever before in their long-but-generally-pedestrian careers.
On the pitcher’s mound, there is also plenty of potential for fool’s gold. The headliner of this group, Clayton Kershaw, opted to stay with the Dodgers, taking away the only true ace of free agency. That leaves free agent Patrick Corbin and free agent Dallas Keuchel as the crown jewels of the starting pitcher market. We have written in detail about what both can bring to the table. However, it is safe to say that a true contender for the World Series will not have either pitcher starting on Opening Day. After Keuchel and Corbin, the starting pitching available gets even murkier. Reliable veterans in free agent J.A. Happ and free agent Charlie Morton will be sought after, but neither can be given a lengthy deal, and both carry the risk of regression due to their age. The most compelling story line should be high risk/ high reward free agent fireballer Nathan Eovaldi. The 29-year old was the talk of th postseason, as he pitched brilliantly for the Red Sox down the stretch. However, he is coming off of his first season pitching following over a year and a half sidelined due to arm surgery, and it is highly unlikely that he will remain injury-free over the course of a multi-year deal. While there may be plenty of good bullpen arms available, pitching this winter certainly leaves something to be desired.
The 2018-19 free agent class is not unique in that each player comes with a specific set of conditions and concerns. However, what does make this group stand out is the immense build up they have received. Teams and fan bases have waited eagerly to nab game-changing stars, and to come away without any would be seen as a major disappointment to most. However, clubs need to proceed with caution. While there are plenty of promising options on the open market, the bark may outstrip the bite for the group as a whole. In a baseball landscape that seems poised to become an arms race between the league’s upper-echelon teams, this may lead to bidding wars and high priced deals to undeserving players. For franchises that try to avoid onerous contracts like the plague, this year’s free agents may provide more regrets than rewards.
-Bryan Armetta
