Rapid Reaction: Paul Goldschmidt a Poor Fit as Cardinals New First Baseman
News broke around the end of the work day today that the Arizona Diamondbacks have shipped off their superstar first baseman, Paul Goldschmidt, to the St Louis Cardinals. The deal came as a big surprise to the industry. There had been small rumors of Goldschmidt’s availability weeks ago, but few believed that the D’backs would part with the face of their franchise. From the Cardinals perspective, the move makes even less sense on the surface as the Cardinals roster already had a few players likely best suited for first base.
The full deal ships Goldschmidt to St. Louis and pitcher Luke Weaver, catcher Carson Kelly, infielder Andrew Young, and a competitive balance pick to Arizona. Let’s quickly add some color to that list of names. Goldschmidt is a perennial All-Star, who has finished with MVP votes in 5 of the last 6 seasons. He’s a Gold Glove-winning first baseman. He’s also set to be a free agent this time next year. Luke Weaver is a 25-year-old right-handed pitcher coming off of a season with a 4.95 ERA and an injury history. He’s a former top 100 prospect in baseball and he’s shown a solid combination of strikeouts and walks and he figures to be a low-end Number 3 pitcher going forward. Importantly, he’s under team control through 2024. Carson Kelly was the number 2 catching prospect in baseball entering last year. He hasn’t really hit in limited Major League exposure, but he’s just 23 and is similarly under team control for another 6 years. Andrew Young is a 24-year-old A-ball infielder with good pop, who showed well in his first taste of AA last year.
That’s a lot of talent and years of control going to Arizona for one year of anyone. The Cardinals effectively gave up 12 years of what figures to be useful Major League production for 1 year of what figures to be excellent Major League production.
More specifically, I question why the Cardinals made this move. Sure, we covered their surprise relevance in the NL playoff hunt and it makes sense that they would try to get better. But this feels like a team forcing the issue unnecessarily. Perhaps they see a chink in the Chicago Cubs’ armor in 2019, but Off The Bench is squarely on the Cubs Are Screwed in 2020 bandwagon. If they were going to make a play like this, why would they go after this upgrade? The move effectively moves Matt Carpenter back to third base, where he’s a below average defender, makes Jose Martinez a full-time outfielder, where he’s slightly below average, and shifts Jedd Gyorko into a utility role. Each put together fine 2018 seasons. Carpenter was worth nearly 5 WAR, Martinez 1.5, and Gyorko 2 WAR. The Cardinals seemed to need help in their bullpen far more than at first base.
What’s more, the Cardinals gave up a catching prospect that is highly regarded, while their catcher is entering his age 36 season and will make $20M for each of the next two years. What better way to handcuff (guard against downside) with Yadier Molina than by allowing a young catcher to wait in the wings? The deal makes the Cardinals better in 2019, but only if things go right (Goldschmidt does his thing and Molina stays healthy). And it decidedly makes them worse in the out years.
For the Diamondbacks, the deal makes a lot of sense. They get a pair of Major Leaguers who can help right away as they enter a bit of a reset after a disappointing 82-80 season. The squad will still have plenty of talent even after the departure of Patrick Corbin, the likely departure of AJ Pollack, and the potential deal of Zack Greinke. Getting Major Leaguers, rather than young prospects makes sense at this stage in the franchise’s life. I question Luke Weaver’s upside, but he’ll certainly be a useful pitcher and asset that any organization would welcome.
Longer term, I guess this deal means that the Cardinals will be “in” on more upgrades for the 2019 season as they push more chips to the middle of the table. My suggestion would be for Zach Britton, Andrew Miller, Cody Allen type of reliever looking to rebound on a short contract. For the Diamondbacks, they figure to more aggressively shop the remaining years of Greinke’s contract and look for fringe assets with a medium-term lens (maybe Justin Bour?)
-Sean Morash
