Pompous Prognosticator: Max Frankel Got it Right
Every year, Max and I make an obscure bet- if one of us can correctly predict the third place finisher in the AL Cy Young race, the other has to write a lengthy post (there is some argument about whether the loser is holds a 500 or 200 word obligation) about the awesome-ness of the other individual. Well, last season, Max was able to correctly state in early March that Corey Kluber would finish second runner up in the voting. Even a blind squirrel finds a nut every now and then. Even a broken clock is right twice…
He somehow lucked into this. His other picks were atrocious. He picked Correa, Seager, and the Nationals to win the World Series. He’s never picked this winner right before. He’s never even really been close.
I, however, won back in 2014. And just last year, my guy, Chris Sale, deserved to finish 3rd in the AL Cy Young, but the voters got it wrong. Sale finished the year with an ERA nearly a full run lower than Corey Kluber and was worth nearly a win more over the course of the year. Voters with their recency bias forgot about Sale’s early season dominance because he missed August with arm trouble. I think the voters have it out for Sale. Last time Sale and Kluber finished back-to-back in AL Cy Young voting (2017), it was the guy with the fewer innings and lower ERA/WHIP who finished out front. Both times Kluber finished in front.
So what has 6 years of betting taught us about the 3rd place Cy Young? Absolutely nothing. You can not predict baseball. Wow. 500 words is going to be difficult. I am currently at 289.
Let’s make this a post about what a terrible pick Max made this year. The 2019 picks:
- Sean- Justin Verlander
- Max- Trevor Bauer
- Ari- Blake Snell
As I write this, Trevor Bauer is throwing a no-hitter. Assuming he keeps doing that the rest of the year, the right hander, who has three rules to dating and may be a terrible person, will clearly win the Cy Young. What a dumb pick.
My pick, meanwhile, has finished second in the voting in two of the last three years. He just turned 36, so he’s obviously due for regression, ergo ideal third place pick.
This is going to publish on my birthday. That may be adding insult to injury. (399 words).
Who will win this year? Who knows. But we can check some odds.
Entering the season, sportsbooks listed by MyTopsportsbooks.com gave a lot more credence to career-long performance than last year’s results when it came to the AL Cy Young odds. Corey Kluber (+260) and Chris Sale (+325) were heavy favorites, while reigning champion Blake Snell was way down the list at +1600. A shaky first outing (6 H, 5 ER vs Houston) will see Snell’s odds get even longer when they re-open, but don’t count out the 26-year-old. He touches high 90s with his four-seamer, has three effective off-speed pitches, and posted an elite 11.0 K/9 ratio which indicates his 1.89 ERA from last year may be repeatable.
-Sean “Good Thing I Will Never Have to Write One of These Again” Morash
