Ozzie Albies Sells Himself Short
Locking up young players before they hit the open market has been all the rage in baseball recently. Luis Severino, Aaron Nola, Ronald Acuna, German Marquez, Blake Snell, Xander Bogaerts, Nolan Arenado, Alex Bregman, and Mike Trout (among many others) are just some of the youthful stars to receive hefty paychecks in the past two months. We constructed a full roster of these guys. Teams and players are now looking to get deals done quicker than ever, as to avoid the increasingly messy free agent market.
Yesterday, the Braves signed Ozzie Albies to a contract, locking up the second baseman to a seven-year, $35 million dollar deal that will – wait, was that a typo?
The answer is no. Albies, a 22-year old All Star fresh off his first and only full season in 2019, will be netting just $5 million a year from Atlanta for the next seven years, plus two club-options that could actually keep him around for a staggering nine seasons. Following the also-team friendly deal for Acuna (8 years/$100 mil.), the Braves will now be paying just $24 million if they choose to pick up both player’s team options in 2028. It’s currently 2019.
While both players will have the chance to strike hit free agency before the crypt, they’ll both be hitting their 30’s when they reach the open market again. Recent free agency has proven that unless you’re a superstar just entering your prime, getting a deal above $150 million is unlikely at best. However, it isn’t fair to compare the two young Atlanta stars, when one is making a fraction of what the other is making.
To emphasise this point, look at some of the players that Albies, a player worth 3.8 WAR last year at just 21, will be earning less than in 2019. Brian Dozier (1.0 WAR in 2018), Rougned Odor (2.7 WAR) and Jonathan Schoop (1.4 WAR) will all be netting more than Albies this year.
To make it even worse, Albies probably has an incredibly bright future, during most of which he will be making less than some backups at his own position. According to FanGraphs, the ZiPS projection system believes Albies has the fourth-highest career WAR ahead of him, behind only Francisco Lindor, Mike Trout, and Juan Soto. If $5 million for a star seems cheap now, just imagine how bad it will look by the end of the deal, which will be nearly a decade from now.
The contract for Albies is absurd when viewed in a bubble, but even worse when you consider the reasoning and ramifications that it will have for the future of the league.
It’s common knowledge around the league that the current free agency system is broken. Owners have been holding out on players now more than ever, with recent All Stars still out of work as of the middle of April. With the current labor agreement set to run out following the 2021 season, it’s increasingly likely that a strike will happen should the status-quo remain in place. Players are demanding the hefty paydays that they used to receive, while front offices are looking to maximize young, cost-controlled players in the Age of Analytics.
Contracts like this are the stuff of Tony Clark’s nightmares. The MLBPA leader is under a ton of pressure to improve the current situation between players and owners, and the Albies deal will only heighten that. When push comes to shove, this just might be the final insult.
Proponents of the deal will point to the fact that Atlanta has chosen to give the young second baseman life-changing money, playing in a clubhouse he loves, and keeping his family provided for generations. That is all true. But a player of Albies’ stature, given he maintained just last season’s level of play, could have netted a deal in the $20-25 million per year range. In fact, there’s a good chance he could have netted more money just through playing out the rest of his current contract and getting an arbitrator to deem his worth.
However you stack it up, Ozzie Albies signed an incredibly baffling extension. Most are arguing it’s the worst contract, from a player’s perspective, in MLB history. Since the ink is still drying, the explanation from Albies and his agent will likely come out given all the questions surrounding the deal. Regardless, as of now it’s shocking that he wasn’t able to squeeze more out of the Braves. This deal is beyond bad, and “The Albies Contract” could be the rallying cry for players in 2021 when labor reform takes real precedent. Until then, we will all be left scratching our heads.
-Bryan Armetta
