Bryce Harper is Playing Even Worse Than You Think
Here are the single stat lines for five different players. One of them is Bryce Harper. The other ones are not.
Player A: .300 avg, 1.015 OPS, 57 homers, 142 RBIs, 8.8 WAR, 158 wRC+
Player B: .330, .874, 13 homers, 100 RBIs, 5.6 WAR, 128 wRC+
Player C: .303, 1.020, 49 homers, 140 RBI, 9.7 WAR, 146 wRC+
Player D: .277, .851, 36 homers, 116 RBIs, 4.9 WAR, 118 wRC+
Player E (90 games): .253, .853, 16 homers, 62 RBIs, 1.4 WAR, 118 wRC+
Player E is Bryce Harper.
Any guesses on the other guys? Here’s a hint: like Harper, they all debuted in the MLB at age 19, and represented above is their age 26 season, the one Harper is currently in the middle of.
Player A is Alex Rodriguez, player B is Edgar Renteria, player C is Ken Griffey Jr., and player D is Andruw Jones.
Obviously, all five of these guys were extremely highly touted coming up through the minors. They all made it to the majors before their twentieth birthdays, but not all these guys were super duper stars.
Alex Rodriguez, performance enhancers or not, had one of the, if not the single best, statistical careers of all time. By the time he was 26, he was on the second year of the earth shattering 10 year, $252 million contract with the Texas Rangers. He was already regarded as one of the best few players in the game, and he set a career high that year in homers with 57. The 8.8 WAR that he put up that year was actually only the 5th best mark of his career and only his 3rd best year to that point.
Ken Griffey Jr. was also a massive star by 26. He didn’t set any particular career highs that year but he did finish 4th in the MVP voting, his second top 5 MVP finish, and posted the best WAR of his career to that point.
Andruw Jones wasn’t on nearly the same level as the previous two guys, but his age 26 season produced his third trip to the All Star game and his second 36 homer campaign. At that point, he had already had 4 season in which he had more than 6.5 WAR.
Edgar Renteria had the best year of his career at age 26, finishing 15th in the MVP voting and posting a career high WAR.
By 26, these guys had figured out the MLB and were dominating it. Unlike other 26 year olds who are mostly still finding their way in the show, these players were already on their second contracts, were set for life financially, and were veterans of the MLB season grind. They were pro’s pros; comfortable in the league and able to perform at or near their athletic potential.
Bryce Harper has had a different journey to age 26. He’s definitely financially set – a 13 year, $330 million contract will do that for you – and he’s played the same number of seasons as the other guys we’ve looked at, but a guy considered by just about everyone to have a talent level at or near A-Rod’s and Griffey’s isn’t even performing at Renteria levels.
Harper does have 3 seasons above 4.5 WAR already and he’s the only guy we’ve mentioned to have already won an MVP award, but his track record lacks any evidence of growth over time.
Harper had a pedestrian 1.1 WAR age 21 season – followed by an incomparable age 22 season when he posted a 10.0 WAR – and then a 1.5 WAR age 23 season, a largely lost age 24 season, and a 1.3 WAR age 25 season. Now this year, his 1.4 WAR so far seem to put him on track for somewhere between 2.5 and 3 WAR at the close.
Not only is that unacceptably low for a guy that the Phillies have invested their future in, it’s particularly egregious compared to the age 26 seasons that, as we’ve seen, guys who debut at age 19 typically have.
Now, a players’ age at debut does not make or define his career – Satchel Paige‘s career is certainly not defined by his MLB debut at the age of 42 -but it does help to tell one’s story. Harper was on the cover of Sports Illustrated at age 15. He’s good against his MLB peers, but a player graced with this much talent shouldn’t be evaluated against merely MLB peers. The full context of Harper’s wasted mid-20s seasons will be particularly important as he progresses along the age curve.
Harper’s a good Major Leaguer. That’s a good thing. But compared with the other special young talents that have come through the MLB, Harper’s disappointing 2019 season looks just that much worse.
-Max Frankel
