Dodgers Deadline Disaster? Not So Fast.
No Felipe Vasquez, no Edwin Diaz, no Noah Syndergaard, no Zach Greinke, no Shane Greene.
At first glance, this could easily be described as a complete failure by the Dodgers front office to acquire talent for a World Series push.
I’m here to try and explain to you that the jury is still out.
The asking price for the Felipe Vasquez was ludicrous. The Pirates, still reeling from the Chris Archer trade, reportedly wanted a package including Gavin Lux AND Keibert Ruiz, the Dodgers top two prospects, and wouldn’t settle for anything excluding Lux, especially.
While Vasquez is no doubt a top left-handed reliever this year, sporting a 1.87 ERA while at the top of the league’s rankings in fastball velocity, fastball spin and strikeout percentage, the price was simply too high.
Unlike the Manny Machado and Yu Darvish acquisitions in year’s past, Vasquez would not have been a rental, as he is under team control through 2023, and would be able to contribute for the Dodgers for seasons to come but at the end of the day, he is still simply a reliever.
Let’s use Joe Kelly as an example.
Last season he struggled mightily for the Red Sox for most of the 2018 regular season:
73 GP 65.2 IP 32 ER 32 BB 4.39 ERA 1.35 WHIP 3.57 FIP
Kelly barely made the postseason roster, yet during it, Kelly was arguably the team’s most valuable weapon out of the bullpen and played an integral role in the Red Sox winning the 2018 World Series.
In the 2018 postseason, Kelly pitched in nine games and tallied 11.2 IP, 8H, 0BB, 1ER, and 13K.
My point? Relievers are hit and miss and wildly unpredictable. They always have been, and especially so in the postseason where conditions are entirely different in the intense spurts of short series than they are in the grind of the regular season, we just can’t guarantee who will perform, and who will not.
Just because Vasquez has been dominant for Pittsburgh this season, simply does not guarantee that he will replicate that success in eight or nine innings of playoff relief. Mortgaging a possible superstar, or even two of them, is simply not what Andrew Friedman does, nor anyone should do, just for a relief pitcher.
I am surprised the team did not acquire Tigers closer Shane Greene, who’s asking price was significantly lower than Vasquez, but again, there is simply no guarantee Greene, Vasquez, or any reliever would replicate their success in such a small sample.
Greene would’ve been a nice addition to at least compete with Kelly, Pedro Baez and Kenley Jansen in the middle and end of games, but there’s just no way of knowing how he or anyone would fare in the postseason.
The team did add left-hander Adam Kolarek from Tampa Bay. Kolarek is holding opposing left-handed batters to a .133 batting average. Is he Felipe Vasquez? No. But is he someone who very well could get critical outs during the postseason? You bet.
The biggest acquisitions this Dodgers team made (and I hope will continue to make), are not from other teams, but from their very own farm system.
Catcher Will Smith can very well be looked at as a “trade deadline acquisition”, and has already made a profound impact on this team in just 13 games with the club.
Smith has five home runs and 15 RBI in just 39 at-bats, and has already proven he can hit in the clutch with a walk-off HR earlier in the season, and a go-ahead 3-run HR in the 9th inning against Colorado just a few days ago.
Next, the team has called up top pitching prospect Dustin May, who will make his debut with the Dodgers on Friday against San Diego.
I am extremely high on May.
I wrote last week, May features a four pitch repertoire: a plus two-seam fastball comfortably sitting between 92-97, a hard curveball, a cutter, and most recently he added a changeup which is a work in progress.
In just five starts at AAA Oklahoma City, May is 3-0 with a 2.30 ERA and 24K, but in his last two starts, he combined for 12 innings allowing just one run.
This kid has what it takes to be a star, and if the Dodgers give him the opportunity, he can contribute to the team’s World Series bid either as the team’s fourth starter, or as a weapon out of the bullpen.
Lastly, and certainly not least, we come again to top prospect Gavin Lux.
Lux, to me, is the Dodgers most promising prospect. He has the tools to become a Javy Baez-type player, and there is a good reason the Dodgers reportedly dubbed him “untouchable” in trade talks.
In AAA Oklahoma City, he’s slashing a ridiculous .457/.537/.876 with 48 hits, 35 runs, 8 HR and 28 RBI in *checks notes* 25 games.
I’ve said for the last several weeks, he needs to be given the opportunity to prove he can contribute THIS SEASON. Not next season, THIS season.
The Dodgers have said Will Smith will get the majority of time as the the team’s starting catcher, which is a good start. They’re 1 for 3 right now.
Promoting May to the big league club is a fantastic start, but not if they only let him fill in for Ross Stripling while he’s on the injured list. They need to give him a long leash, and give him a legitimate chance to prove to them he deserves to be on the postseason roster, contributing either as a starter, or out of the bullpen.
I’m all for Andrew Friedman keeping all of the team’s top prospects with one condition: give May and Lux a legitimate shot at contributing for the Dodgers in THIS YEAR’S postseason.
If you look at it from one perspective, Smith, May and Lux (hopefully) could all easily be considered “deadline acquisitions”.
Making Will Smith the everyday catcher was a terrific start, but the verdict on the Dodgers trade deadline hinges on what Andrew Friedman and the Dodgers will do with Dustin May and Gavin Lux this season.
All I’m hoping for is for Friedman to give them chance. A legitimate chance.
Derek Jeter in 1996.
John Lackey in 2002.
Adam Wainwright in 2006.
Dustin Pedroia in 2007.
Madison Bumgarner in 2010.
Buster Posey in 2010.
Xander Bogaerts in 2013.
What do those players have in common? They all helped lead their team to a World Series win as rookies.
It happens. With regularity. Those are just a few examples, and there are plenty more throughout history.
As Major League Baseball says nowadays, “let the kids play”.
-David Rosenthal
