Looking Back at the Dodgers Potentially Historic 2016 Draft Class
Despite having the fourth highest payroll in the MLB this season, the Los Angeles Dodgers sustained success lies within their ability to foster homegrown talent in their organization.
The scouting and player development staff has a legitimate argument to be the single best in the entire league, whether they are drafting players, signing international talent, or signing free agents other teams gave up on, the team’s track record for identifying and developing talent is simply remarkable.
The majority of the Dodgers current core are players they drafted:
Clayton Kershaw (2006 1st round)
Cody Bellinger (2013 4th round)
Corey Seager (2012 1st round)
Joc Pederson (2010 11th round)
Ross Stripling (2012 5th round)
Alex Verdugo (2014 2nd round)
Walker Buehler (2015 1st round)
They signed Kenley Jansen in 2004 and Pedro Baez in 2007 after they both went undrafted. Both Jansen and Baez didn’t even start their careers as pitchers.
They signed Julio Urias out of Mexico when he was just 16 years old, brought in Hyun-Jin Ryu from Korea, and Kenta Maeda from Japan.
They signed Justin Turner after the New York Mets released him after an uneventful 2013 season, and basically picked Max Muncy up off the street after the Oakland A’s released him after he hit .186 for them in 2016.
Not only do the Dodgers identify possible talent at an extraordinary level, they develop it.
This brings me to Dodgers 2016 draft class.
The group the Dodgers were able to put together has the potential to be franchise altering.
Holding the 20th overall pick in the 2016 draft, the Dodgers collected this haul in the first nine rounds:
1st (20th overall): Gavin Lux
1st (32nd overall): Will Smith
1st (CBA 36th overall): Jordan Sheffield
2nd (65th overall): Mitchell White
3rd (101st overall): Dustin May
4th (131st overall): DJ Peters
5th (161st overall): Devin Smeltzer (traded for Brian Dozier)
7th (221st overall): Luke Raley (traded for Brian Dozier)
9th (281st overall): Tony Gonsolin
Obviously the players that currently stand out are Lux, Smith and May. For my fellow history nerds, this trio is the Dodgers version of the 60 BC Roman triumvirate of Caesar, Crassus and Pompey. Are these three Dodgers going to collectively rule an empire? Obviously not. However this “alliance” of talent will wreak havoc on the MLB for many, many years to come.
This 2016 AD triumvirate, if you will, is the new guard. Adding this group to the “old” guard of Bellinger, Seager and Buehler has the Dodgers primed for many World Series runs to come
By now you are familiar with Smith, May and Lux, and I’ve written about them enough, so let’s focus on the rest of the class, beginning with Tony Gonsolin.
Selected in the 9th round in 2016, he has made quite an impression for the Dodgers in his last two outings:
7/30 (relief): 4 IP, 1 ER, 3 K, SV
8/5: 6 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 7 K, W
Gonsolin has been sent down to AAA Oklahoma City for now, but I largely expect he’ll back soon, and will have a spot on the playoff roster as a reliever. Not only can he contribute this season, but he has the potential to either be a legitimate front end starter or dominant reliever for the Dodgers for years to come.
A player you may not have heard about just yet is outfielder DJ Peters.
The 2016 fourth rounder has made a mark in the minor leagues this season both in AA and AAA.
in AA Tulsa, he slashed .241/.331/.422 with 11 HR and 42 RBI in just 68 games, but he’s turned it on in AAA OKC, where he’s currently slashing .303/.430/.644 with 12 HR and 33 RBI in just 35 games.
While the Dodgers outfield is still a log jam, don’t expect to see him this season, but he’s certainly looking like a steal in the fourth round.
Jordan Sheffield (1st round) had his struggles as a starter early on for the Dodgers, but in 2019 he’s shifted to primarily being used as a reliever where he’s found more success. He’s obviously on a slower trajectory than Lux/May/Smith/Gonsolin, but in 2019 split between A+ Rancho Cucamonga and AA Tulsa he’s allowed 12 earned runs in 44 innings (2.45 ERA). His control is a problem (31 BB’s), but with the Dodgers player development staff, do not count Sheffield out.
Mitchell White (2nd round) pitched well this season for AA Tulsa (7 GS, 30 IP, 2.10 ERA, 37K), but has struggled in AAA OKC (10 GS, 52.2 IP, 7.35 ERA, 53K). The strikeouts are there, and the offensive power surge this season in AAA could be a factor in his troubles, but he’s going to have to figure it out if he wants a shot with the big league club anytime soon. The 24-year-old has the talent, it’s just a matter of if he can put it all together.
Finally, As mentioned above, the Dodgers traded Smeltzer and Raley to the Twins in exchange for Brian Dozier last season. This season for Minnesota, Smeltzer has posted a 2.28 ERA in 5 games, striking out 21 in 27 innings in his first stint in the pro’s. Raley, another outfielder, is currently hitting over .300 for Minnesota’s AAA affiliate.
The scouting department deserves a raise. This draft class, and specifically the triumvirate of Lux, May and Smith has the potential to be one of the single best all-time.
The Dodgers young core going forward of Bellinger, Seager, Buehler, Smith, Verdugo, May and Lux, with Gonsolin, Keibert Ruiz, DJ Peters, Josiah Gray, Jeter Downs and more waiting in the wings has the Dodgers set up to contend for a World Series for the next decade.
After the team didn’t make a big splash at this year’s trade deadline it’s easy to forget that in the past, teams wanted Seager, Bellinger, Verdugo and many others in trade talks when they were prospects, and look what they have blossomed into.
Hell, teams wanted Clayton Kershaw when he was a prospect, but the team held it’s ground.
Big name free agents and trade acquisitions are nice, but homegrown talent is the best recipe for continued and sustained success in the MLB.
The new guard is coming, and fans will be grateful Andrew Friedman held onto these guys when it arrives.
-David Rosenthal (@_therealdrose)
