Singles, Bunts, and Intentional Walks: The Cincinnati Reds and Milwaukee Brewers Exemplified 2020 Baseball
Cincinnati Reds and Milwaukee Brewers Exemplified 2020 Baseball
I recently wrote about the increasing rate of strikeouts, homers, and beanballs in Major League Baseball. Now let’s take a look at the things we’re seeing less often on the diamond in recent seasons. In particular, what did the 2020 season bring us?
- Singles per plate appearance (13.6%): lowest rate ever
- Doubles per plate appearance (4.2%): lowest rate since 1992
- Triples per plate appearance (0.4%): lowest rate ever
- Stolen bases per plate appearance (1.3%): second-lowest rate since 1972
- Intentional walks per plate appearance (0.3%): lowest rate ever
- Sacrifice bunts (0.2%): lowest rate ever
It’s becoming harder than ever to piece together some offense without hitting the long ball. In the shortened 60-game 2020 season, we saw the lowest rate of singles ever, the lowest rate of triples ever, the lowest rate of doubles since 1992, and second-lowest rate of steals since 1972. The building blocks of offense have shifted mightily from singles and doubles and stealing bases to taking a walk and hitting a dinger.
We’re in the era of instant offense. Manufacturing a run is a thing of the past. When a team strings together a single, a bunt or a steal, a ground ball to move the runner over, and a sacrifice fly to get the runner in, it feels like watching a game from a different time. Gone are the days when Pittsburgh Pirates shortstop Jay Bell led the NL in sacrifice bunts with 39 in 1990.
In the dugout, managers are increasingly taking a “hands off” approach when it comes to intentional walks and sacrifice bunts. Both events occurred less often this season than ever before. This has been an ongoing trend, but it accelerated in 2020 because the DH was used in both leagues for the first time.
Pitchers greatly influence the intentional walk rate because the spot hitting ahead of the pitcher is the most likely spot in the lineup to get a free pass. Also, pitchers are doing most of the bunting these days, so when you remove them from the lineup, as happened this season, bunting will happen less often.
The universal DH entirely explained the diminished sacrifice bunt rate this year. In 2019, non-pitchers laid down 345 successful sacrifice bunts in 181,418 plate appearances. That’s a rate of 1.1 sacrifice bunts per 600 plate appearances. In 2020, non-pitches laid down 126 successful sacrifice bunts in 66,506 plate appearances, for a rate of 1.1 sacrifice bunts per 600 plate appearances. No change there, so the overall drop in sacrifice bunt rate is attributed to the removal of pitchers from the lineup, which resulted in the rate of sacrifice bunts dropping to its lowest level in history.
The Epitome of 2020 Offense—The Cincinnati Reds
The Cincinnati Reds were the embodiment of 2020 baseball. On offense, their hitters finished in the bottom three in singles, doubles, and triples per plate appearance, and they were one of three teams without a single sacrifice bunt (along with the Brewers and Rays). They were not a small ball offense.
The Reds produced their runs with walks (second-highest rate in MLB) and dingers (fifth-highest rate in MLB). They were also in the upper third of the league in strikeout rate and hit-by-pitch rate. Their combination of homers, walks, and strikeouts—the Three True Outcomes—ranked second in MLB behind the Tampa Bay Rays. Leading the Reds in Three True Outcomes percentage were Eugenio Suarez (48%), Jesse Winker (47%), Nick Castellanos (42%), and Joey Votto (41%).
The one way the Reds differed from the general trend of 2020 was by stealing 29 bases, which put them tied for 12th in baseball. Shogo Akiyama (7 steals) and Brian Goodwin (4 steals) were the oddballs on the team who actually tried to manufacture runs while everyone else was gripping and ripping (and walking and whiffing).
Also Worth Mentioning—The Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers were another good example of 2020 baseball. They finished in the bottom third of MLB in the rate of singles, doubles, and triples. Only one team had fewer steals and, as mentioned above, the Brewers were one of three teams with no sacrifice bunts. The Brewers Three True Outcomes percentage ranked one spot behind the Reds, at third in MLB. They accomplished this by finishing in the middle-of-the-pack in home run rate, 11th in walk rate, and third in strikeout rate. Christian Yelich (54%) and Keston Hiura (46%) were the TTO leaders on the team. Yelich ranked fourth in MLB overall and Hiura was 13th.
The Brewers pitching staff was also very 2020-esque. Brewers hurlers finished third in strikeout rate and fourth in HBP rate. Manager Craig Counsell called for just one intentional walk all season, which came on August 20 against the Minnesota Twins (coincidentally, the only MLB team that issued no intentional walks this year). Rookie Ángel Perdomo was pitching in just the second game of his career. He came into the game with the Brewers losing 4-1, then this happened: strikeout, walk, error, HBP, walk (run scores), double (two runs score). With one out and runners on second-and-third, Counsell called for an intentional walk to Nelson Cruz. Perdomo then struck out Eddie Rosario and Miguel Sano (the MLB leader in Three True Outcomes percentage, with a 59% TTO-rate).
The anti-2020 Teams: Kansas City Royals (Hitting) and Miami Marlins (Pitching)
The Kansas City Royals and Miami Marlins the two most anti-2020 teams in baseball this year. On offense, the Royals were in the top half of the league in singles, doubles, and triples per plate appearance, but in the bottom third in homers. They liked to bunt (third in sacrifice bunt rate) and steal bases (fifth in steals per PA). Nicky Lopez led MLB with three sacrifice bunts. Adalberto Mondesi led MLB with 24 steals. Whit Merrifield was tied for fourth, with 12 steals.
The Royals finished in the middle-of-the-pack in strikeout rate, dead last in HBP rate, and 26th in Three True Outcomes rate. The team leader in plate appearances was Whit Merrifield. Among hitters with enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title, only four players—Ketel Marte (15%), Hanser Alberto (16%), Tommy La Stella (19%), and Yuli Gurriel (20%)—had a lower TTO percentage than Merrifield (20%).
The Marlins pitching staff was second-to-last in baseball in strikeout rate and in the bottom half of the league in HBP rate. They also didn’t get the memo that intentional walks are out of style. Marlins manager Don Mattingly called for 14 free passes, third-most in baseball behind the Nationals (22) and Diamondbacks (20). This is not unusual for Mattingly. Prior to this season, Mattingly’s Marlins led baseball in intentional walks in 2016, 2017, 2018, and 2019.
