Why the James McCann Market is So Hot Right Now
In the game of baseball, McCann is a last name that is often associated with a big lefty swing and an Atlanta Braves jersey. But this article is not about Brian. This is about James McCann, the righty swinging catcher with a career 86 WRC+ from the doldrums of the AL Central. He is also arguably the 2nd best catcher on the market this off-season and in-line for a substantial pay raise.
Due to the shortened season, McCann’s last 2 seasons of stats equate to about 587 plate appearances. In that time, he’s hit 25 homers, posted a .334 OBP and been worth 3.8 WAR.
That’s a solid line for any position player, but especially from a catcher that can hold his own behind the plate (he’s ranked in the 88th percentile in framing). Over the last two seasons, McCann’s 3.8 WAR is fifth among all catchers and his 116 WRC+ is eighth among all catchers. We see why he’s a bit of a hot commodity. This is an exciting trend for a player at a premium position. However, his stat line over his career is much different. He has set career highs in almost every offensive category the last 2 years. A change has happened, one that is undoubtedly for the better. The multi-million dollar question is, is it sustainable?
We must realize that even with the two years of performance, his career slash line is still just .249.300/.394. James McCann was on a 35+ Home run, 7.5 WAR pace in 2020. JT Realmuto, arguably the best free agent/catcher in the game has a career high single-season WAR of 5.7. Obviously, there’s a caveat as this is a strange year shortened by a global pandemic, but MLB pitchers had the same conditions as McCann. Add in the fact that he was Yasmani Grandal’s backup, and we have an interesting case. McCann is good, but only very recently.
Is this a veteran having an anomaly season? Or is this a legitimate increase in production? Let’s analyze the improvements.
Increase in Exit Velocity
In the last 2 seasons, McCann is 6th in exit velocity among catchers. His exit velo had bottomed out in 2017 at 87.1 MPH. Since then he has gained exit velocity every season and is now up to 90.5 MPH, which just edges out JT Realmuto.
Numbers are fine, but let’s contextualize those a bit:
- Catchers with an EV of 90+ MPH = Average of 109 WRC+
- Catchers with an EV of 87 MPH or Below = Average of 75 WRC+
This means that the 3 MPH of Exit Velocity McCann has gained equates to a 44% increase in value at the plate. That is a significant, career altering significant. For example, Rockies starting catcher Tony Wolters is a top notch defender. He was just non-tendered by the Rockies, who decided they’d rather release their starting catcher than give him a raise.
In contrast, McCann, a backup catcher who played about half the season, is being rumored to have multiple multi-year offers on the table, including a 4-year deal from the Mets.
His exit velo has increased in 4 consecutive seasons. He has maintained a 90+ MPH EV over the past 2 seasons. I’m buying what he’s selling.
Launch Angle Sweet Spot
James McCann’s launch angle has been scattered in his career, from a low of 8.7 degrees in 2015 to a high of 16.2 degrees in 2016 and 2018. However, the years in which it was at his highest, were his two worst career years at the plate. Over the last 2 seasons, he’s rocked a launch angle of about 12.9 degrees. This angle has given him the best 2 years of his career at the plate, his highest hard hit percentage, and highest line drive rate.
This isn’t an overly dramatic change in approach or launch angle. It’s clear that he has gotten his swing to its optimal point of productivity. Things seem sustainable.
All Fields Approach
James McCann is a hitter that the old-school commentators love: waxing philosophically about a hitter with an “all-fields approach” who “doesn’t try to do too much” and “takes what the pitcher is giving him” seems to be the old-school heartthrob. James McCann does all those things, just now with pop. McCann sprays the ball to all fields, even going to the opposite field more than he pulls.
| GB% | Pull % | Straight % | Oppo % | Line Drive % | |
| James McCann | 39.1 | 30.4 | 37.7 | 31.9 | 33.3 |
| MLB Average | 45.3 | 36.6 | 38.0 | 25.5 | 25.7 |
So a hitter with a career high line drive % and a decrease in pull %? That screams a hitter that is comfortable in the box and not trying to do too much.Sign me up.
To sum it all up, we have a guy who:
- Has progressively hit the ball harder
- Hits the ball on the ground less
- Has found his optimal contact point (launch angle)
- Doesn’t have to pull the ball to be successful
- Has the same last name as another really good catcher
Seems sustainable to me. Couple the offensive makeover with solid defense and improved framing, McCann’s market being robust shouldn’t come as a surprise.
